Georgia State Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 6:00 PM ETPete Mathews Coliseum · at Jax State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Georgia St and Jax State
GAST	This season	JXST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JXST 74–70 · win probability JXST 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

GAST 0, JXST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JXSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GAST 27.7%, JXST 29.8%. Defensive: GAST 66.4%, JXST 72.0%

JXSTBig

Three-pointers

GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%; JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 42.4% and 38.1% of their shots

JXSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6; JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: GAST plays 69.1 a game (176th fastest), JXST 66.3 (302nd). Faster games mean more points

JXSTSmall

Home court

JXST at home. This season: JXST 0-0 at home, GAST 0-0 away

Even

GAST offense vs JXST defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GAST 15.9%, JXST 17.0%. Forced: GAST 16.4%, JXST 16.2%

Even

JXST offense vs GAST defense

Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

GAST has played the 232nd-hardest schedule, JXST the 196th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GAST 4%, JXST 0%. Transfers in: GAST 10, JXST 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GAST 37.2, JXST 43.1. Allowed: GAST 34.9, JXST 38.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JXST -3.5	—
Total	—	143.9	—
Projected score	—	GAST 70.2 · JXST 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JXST -1.9	—
1H total	67.3	—
1H projected score	GAST 32.7 · JXST 34.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	8-7	—
JXST WWWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—

Venue/role: GAST away; JXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22
JXST OOOUU	17-12	59%	12-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
JXST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs TULN	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs FGCU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs MER	L67–78LU

Jax State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs PAC	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs UCD	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs OMA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GAST 1–1 JXSTSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · GAST 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	JXST 73 @ GAST 77	GAST +3.5	GAST W
Nov 13, 2024-25	GAST 67 @ JXST 72	JXST -5.5	GAST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jax State

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L W W L W W L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O O U U U O O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsLT	W 64-60	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsMTSU	W 75-58	+1.5	W +18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 28	@FIU	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 31	@MOST	L 67-74	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	@WKU	W 71-66	+4.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsKENN	W 77-58	+1.5	W +20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 11	vsUTEP	L 64-69	-6.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 14	vsNMSU	L 70-79	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 18	@LT	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@SHSU	L 78-82	+6.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsDEL	W 80-70	-7.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsLIB	L 78-81	+3.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	@NMSU	L 75-77	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	@UTEP	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 125
Mar 10	vsNMSU	L 63-68	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

W 64-60

−0.5

MTSU

W 75-58

+18.5

FIU

W 78-74

+7.5

MOST

L 67-74

−2.5

WKU

W 71-66

+9.5

KENN

W 77-58

+20.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−11.5

NMSU

L 70-79

−10.5

L 71-77

−3.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+2.5

DEL

W 80-70

+2.5

LIB

L 78-81

+0.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+4.5

UTEP

W 64-61

+1.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−3.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

W 64-60

−3.5

MTSU

W 75-58

−0.5

FIU

W 78-74

+3.5

MOST

L 67-74

+5.5

WKU

W 71-66

−3.5

KENN

W 77-58

−14.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−1.5

NMSU

L 70-79

+9.5

L 71-77

+15.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+12.5

DEL

W 80-70

+16.5

LIB

L 78-81

+19.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+6.5

UTEP

W 64-61

−14.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−10.5

over 17under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia St 2, Jax State 0, even 3

Georgia StBetterJax State

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

GASTSmall

G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

Even

G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

Even

F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

GASTBig

F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

No call

F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

Georgia StBetterJax State

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Even

JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

Even

JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

GASTSmall

Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

JXSTBig

Bench+0.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGAST betterJXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

Jax State

Guards

J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew

Forwards

N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GAST68.4 #307

JXST69.9 #287

Points per possession

GAST0.99 #335

JXST1.05 #241

Pace (possessions)

GAST69.1 #176

JXST66.3 #302

Shooting

Effective FG%

GAST44.2 #362

JXST49.7 #253

3-point %

GAST30.6 #329

JXST35.7 #76

3-point attempt rate

GAST42.4 #129

JXST38.1 #209

Free throw rate

GAST37.2 #124

JXST43.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

GAST15.9 #132

JXST17.0 #204

Offensive rebound rate

GAST27.7 #278

JXST29.8 #208

Assists per game

GAST11.1 #334

JXST11.6 #310

Defense

Points allowed

GAST75.4 #203

JXST70.6 #66

Points allowed per possession

GAST1.09 #202

JXST1.06 #120

Opponent effective FG%

GAST50.6 #135

JXST49.6 #85

Opponent 3-point %

GAST33.1 #132

JXST33.3 #141

Turnovers forced

GAST16.4 #197

JXST16.2 #208

Defensive rebound rate

GAST66.4 #312

JXST72.0 #67

Steals per game

GAST6.7 #149

JXST5.8 #252

Blocks per game

GAST3.0 #212

JXST3.0 #233

GAST		JXST
Scoring
68.4 #307	Points per game	69.9 #287
0.99 #335	Points per possession	1.05 #241
69.1 #176	Pace (possessions)	66.3 #302
Shooting
44.2 #362	Effective FG%	49.7 #253
30.6 #329	3-point %	35.7 #76
42.4 #129	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #209
37.2 #124	Free throw rate	43.1 #21
Possessions
15.9 #132	Turnover rate	17.0 #204
27.7 #278	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #208
11.1 #334	Assists per game	11.6 #310
Defense
75.4 #203	Points allowed	70.6 #66
1.09 #202	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #120
50.6 #135	Opponent effective FG%	49.6 #85
33.1 #132	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #141
16.4 #197	Turnovers forced	16.2 #208
66.4 #312	Defensive rebound rate	72.0 #67
6.7 #149	Steals per game	5.8 #252
3.0 #212	Blocks per game	3.0 #233

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico St63–68
W@ UTEP64–61
L@ New Mexico St75–77
Lvs Liberty78–81
Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

Georgia State Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

Jax State

Georgia St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Georgia St

Jax State