James Madison Dukes at Towson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM ETSECU Arena · at Towson

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: James Madison and Towson
JMU	This season	TOW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOW 71–68 · win probability TOW 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

JMU 3, TOW 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

JMU has played the 257th-hardest schedule, TOW the 140th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: JMU 53.1 and allows 49.0; TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5

JMUBig

TOW offense vs JMU defense

Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 154th, on the model’s ratings

JMUSmall

Three-pointers

JMU hits 35.4% and allows 32.7%; TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 42.5% and 34.9% of their shots

TOWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JMU 17.3%, TOW 15.8%. Forced: JMU 12.8%, TOW 15.1%

TOWSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JMU 30.6%, TOW 36.0%. Defensive: JMU 70.5%, TOW 70.9%

TOWSmall

JMU offense vs TOW defense

Offense 181st of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings

TOWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: JMU 35.9, TOW 30.4. Allowed: JMU 40.8, TOW 29.3

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: JMU plays 67.5 a game (253rd fastest), TOW 64.0 (360th). Faster games mean more points

TOWSmall

Home court

TOW at home. This season: TOW 0-0 at home, JMU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JMU 17%, TOW 27%. Transfers in: JMU 8, TOW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TOW -2.9	—
Total	—	139.8	—
Projected score	—	JMU 68.4 · TOW 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOW -1.6	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	JMU 31.9 · TOW 33.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWLWL	13-19	41%	6-9	—
TOW LWLWW	15-17	47%	5-7	—

Venue/role: JMU away; TOW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OUUOO	15-17	47%	17-15
TOW UUOUO	12-20	38%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TOW	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs CHSO	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs W&M	W69–55WU
Dec 3	@ ELON	L66–70LU

Towson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ AMER	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ PENN	W80–74WO
Nov 28	vs BUF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JMU 1–3 TOWTOW leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · JMU 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2025-26	TOW 75 @ JMU 81	JMU +3.5	JMU W
Nov 16, 2024-25	JMU 63 @ TOW 67	TOW -2.5	TOW W
Feb 26, 2021-22	TOW 95 @ JMU 59	JMU +6	TOW W
Feb 23, 2021-22	JMU 65 @ TOW 84	TOW -9.5	TOW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

James Madison

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L W L L W W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AKR	L 71-85	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 9	vsCOPP	W 84-70	-18.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@LONG	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	@LIU	L 79-88	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 18	vsTOW	W 81-75	+3.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	@FIU	W 80-72	+2.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 25	vsOMA	W 88-77	-1.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 29	@GMU	L 66-82	+12.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsNCCU	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNORF	W 68-67	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 17	@ODU	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	@GASO	L 92-96	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 188
Dec 29	@ARK	L 74-103	+23.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 177
Jan 3	@ARST	W 78-74	+10.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsMRSH	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsODU	W 70-69	-6.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@APP	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	@MRSH	L 72-77	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 149
Jan 22	vsUSA	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 173
Jan 24	vsTXST	W 82-57	-5.5	W +19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 29	@TROY	W 73-64	+9.5	W +18.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 31	@USM	L 65-73	+1.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUL	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsTOL	W 73-71	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 12	vsGAST	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsAPP	W 69-58	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 18	@CCU	W 67-65	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	@GAST	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 25	vsGASO	W 82-66	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	vsCCU	L 68-69	-6.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 4	vsUL	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsUSM	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

−5.5

COPP

W 84-70

−4.5

LONG

L 72-82

−11.5

LIU

L 79-88

−5.5

TOW

W 81-75

+9.5

FIU

W 80-72

+10.5

OMA

W 88-77

+9.5

GMU

L 66-82

−3.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−9.5

NORF

W 68-67

−9.5

ODU

L 68-77

−11.5

GASO

L 92-96

−1.5

ARK

L 74-103

−5.5

ARST

W 78-74

+14.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−3.5

ODU

W 70-69

−5.5

APP

L 65-80

−12.5

MRSH

L 72-77

+1.5

USA

L 83-90

−11.5

TXST

W 82-57

+19.5

TROY

W 73-64

+18.5

USM

L 65-73

−6.5

L 61-64

−12.5

TOL

W 73-71

+3.5

GAST

W 81-79

−3.5

APP

W 69-58

+12.5

CCU

W 67-65

+0.5

GAST

W 80-65

+12.5

GASO

W 82-66

+10.5

CCU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 87-72

+8.5

USM

L 80-86

−8.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

+2.5

COPP

W 84-70

+12.5

LONG

L 72-82

+4.5

LIU

L 79-88

+19.5

TOW

W 81-75

+15.5

FIU

W 80-72

−3.5

OMA

W 88-77

+12.5

GMU

L 66-82

+6.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−14.5

NORF

W 68-67

−3.5

ODU

L 68-77

−3.5

GASO

L 92-96

+34.5

ARK

L 74-103

+17.5

ARST

W 78-74

−6.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−22.5

ODU

W 70-69

−8.5

APP

L 65-80

+11.5

MRSH

L 72-77

−0.5

USA

L 83-90

+34.5

TXST

W 82-57

−4.5

TROY

W 73-64

−10.5

USM

L 65-73

−5.5

L 61-64

−7.5

TOL

W 73-71

−9.5

GAST

W 81-79

+15.5

APP

W 69-58

−7.5

CCU

W 67-65

−8.5

GAST

W 80-65

+2.5

GASO

W 82-66

−5.5

CCU

L 68-69

−4.5

W 87-72

+24.5

USM

L 80-86

+22.5

over 15under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Towson

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W L W W L W L L W L L L L W W W W L L W L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U U U O U O O O U U U U U U O O U U U O O O U U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsLIB	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsUCSD	L 73-87	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsCOR	W 93-80	-6.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@UCF	L 61-86	+9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 16	@KU	L 49-73	+14.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsSHU	W 72-47	-13.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	@W&M	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	@HAMP	L 62-63	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 125
Jan 3	vsMONM	L 48-62	-8.5	L −22.5	136.5	U 110
Jan 8	vsHOF	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	@NE	W 87-78	-2.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsCOFC	W 61-52	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 19	vsDREX	W 59-58	-7.5	L −6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 22	@ELON	W 72-59	+1.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 131
Jan 24	@NCAT	L 73-80	-7.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 29	vsUNCW	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsHAMP	W 82-50	-8.5	W +23.5	131.5	O 132
Feb 7	@HOF	L 49-71	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsSTBK	W 69-57	-7.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 15	@MONM	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 143
Feb 22	@DREX	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsELON	W 58-56	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsCAM	W 71-67	-4.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Mar 3	@STBK	W 69-57	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsHAMP	W 74-68	-7.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsCOFC	W 81-56	+3.5	W +28.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 9	vsHOF	L 65-68	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

LIB

W 72-69

+9.5

UCSD

L 73-87

−12.5

COR

W 93-80

+6.5

UCF

L 61-86

−15.5

L 49-73

−9.5

SHU

W 72-47

+11.5

W&M

L 70-84

−12.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−7.5

MONM

L 48-62

−22.5

HOF

L 67-78

−12.5

W 87-78

+6.5

COFC

W 61-52

+5.5

DREX

W 59-58

−6.5

ELON

W 72-59

+14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

−14.5

UNCW

L 73-82

−10.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+23.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

+4.5

MONM

L 71-72

+0.5

DREX

L 62-68

−8.5

ELON

W 58-56

−3.5

CAM

W 71-67

−0.5

STBK

W 69-57

+10.5

HAMP

W 74-68

−1.5

COFC

W 81-56

+28.5

HOF

L 65-68

+1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

LIB

W 72-69

+3.5

UCSD

L 73-87

+21.5

COR

W 93-80

+18.5

UCF

L 61-86

−1.5

L 49-73

−15.5

SHU

W 72-47

−26.5

W&M

L 70-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−11.5

MONM

L 48-62

−26.5

HOF

L 67-78

+10.5

W 87-78

+21.5

COFC

W 61-52

−30.5

DREX

W 59-58

−7.5

ELON

W 72-59

−14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

+13.5

UNCW

L 73-82

+19.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+0.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

−9.5

MONM

L 71-72

+4.5

DREX

L 62-68

−0.5

ELON

W 58-56

−30.5

CAM

W 71-67

−4.5

STBK

W 69-57

−11.5

HAMP

W 74-68

+9.5

COFC

W 81-56

−1.5

HOF

L 65-68

+0.5

over 12under 20avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

James Madison has the better starters

Position by position: James Madison 1, Towson 0, even 4

James MadisonBetterTowson

G G. Lattimore TR15.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 48

Even

G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50

G A. Myers TR11.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 1 ast Score 73

Even

G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61

G C. Reilly TR3 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

F J. Hogarth TR10.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

JMUSmall

F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

F P. Fowler6.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25

Even

F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

James MadisonBetterTowson

JMU offense181st of 366 · -5.7

TOWSmall

TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4

JMU defense154th of 366 · -3.4

JMUSmall

TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Bench-3.8 · 5 players

TOWBig

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestJMU betterTOW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

James Madison

Guards

G. Lattimore37 min · TRA. Myers29 min · TRC. Reilly23 min · TRK. Windham13 min · TRP. Jones11 minB. Lee5 min · TR

Forwards

J. Hogarth25 min · TRP. Fowler23 minG. Sundra18 min · TRM. Curtis16 min · TRJ. BrownNewA. EvansNew

Towson

Guards

B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew

Forwards

C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JMU74.7 #172

TOW67.1 #332

Points per possession

JMU1.10 #128

TOW1.05 #256

Pace (possessions)

JMU67.5 #253

TOW64.0 #360

Shooting

Effective FG%

JMU53.1 #97

TOW46.5 #345

3-point %

JMU35.4 #94

TOW29.4 #349

3-point attempt rate

JMU42.5 #128

TOW34.9 #277

Free throw rate

JMU35.9 #153

TOW30.4 #299

Possessions

Turnover rate

JMU17.3 #225

TOW15.8 #128

Offensive rebound rate

JMU30.6 #175

TOW36.0 #24

Assists per game

JMU12.5 #252

TOW9.5 #364

Defense

Points allowed

JMU74.4 #170

TOW66.4 #18

Points allowed per possession

JMU1.10 #226

TOW1.04 #73

Opponent effective FG%

JMU49.0 #66

TOW48.5 #49

Opponent 3-point %

JMU32.7 #101

TOW30.9 #33

Turnovers forced

JMU12.8 #359

TOW15.1 #271

Defensive rebound rate

JMU70.5 #134

TOW70.9 #117

Steals per game

JMU5.1 #327

TOW5.8 #253

Blocks per game

JMU4.1 #68

TOW3.3 #175

JMU		TOW
Scoring
74.7 #172	Points per game	67.1 #332
1.10 #128	Points per possession	1.05 #256
67.5 #253	Pace (possessions)	64.0 #360
Shooting
53.1 #97	Effective FG%	46.5 #345
35.4 #94	3-point %	29.4 #349
42.5 #128	3-point attempt rate	34.9 #277
35.9 #153	Free throw rate	30.4 #299
Possessions
17.3 #225	Turnover rate	15.8 #128
30.6 #175	Offensive rebound rate	36.0 #24
12.5 #252	Assists per game	9.5 #364
Defense
74.4 #170	Points allowed	66.4 #18
1.10 #226	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #73
49.0 #66	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #49
32.7 #101	Opponent 3-point %	30.9 #33
12.8 #359	Turnovers forced	15.1 #271
70.5 #134	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #117
5.1 #327	Steals per game	5.8 #253
4.1 #68	Blocks per game	3.3 #175

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

James Madison

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss80–86
Wvs Louisiana87–72
Lvs Coastal68–69
Wvs GA Southern82–66
W@ Georgia St80–65

A week or more of rest.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra65–68
Wvs Charleston81–56
Wvs Hampton74–68
W@ Stony Brook69–57
Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.

James Madison Dukes at Towson Tigers

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

James Madison

Towson

James Madison has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

James Madison

Towson