Samford Bulldogs at South Carolina Upstate Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM ETG.B. Hodge Center · at SC Upstate

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Samford and SC Upstate
SAM	This season	UPST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SAM 78–73 · win probability SAM 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SAM has more of the edges

SAM 8, UPST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SAMBig

SAM offense vs UPST defense

Offense 147th of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

SAMBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAM 41.9, UPST 32.8. Allowed: SAM 32.9, UPST 36.0

SAMSmall

Three-pointers

SAM hits 35.6% and allows 36.5%; UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 35.6% of their shots

SAMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAM 53.1 and allows 51.9; UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0

SAMSmall

UPST offense vs SAM defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 224th, on the model’s ratings

SAMSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAM 41%, UPST 9%. Transfers in: SAM 5, UPST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

SAMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAM 25.3%, UPST 29.2%. Defensive: SAM 74.3%, UPST 68.6%

UPSTSmall

Home court

UPST at home. This season: UPST 0-0 at home, SAM 0-0 away

SAMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAM 13.4%, UPST 18.1%. Forced: SAM 13.0%, UPST 16.5%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SAM plays 69.3 a game (163rd fastest), UPST 70.5 (97th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

SAM has played the 251st-hardest schedule, UPST the 281st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SAM -4.7	—
Total	—	150.3	—
Projected score	—	SAM 77.5 · UPST 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SAM -2.9	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	SAM 36.6 · UPST 33.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAM LWWWL	18-12	60%	8-7	—
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	6-6	—

Venue/role: SAM away; UPST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAM OOUOO	19-11	63%	16-14
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAM	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Samford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs UNCA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ GT	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ UAB	No recent meeting

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ UNCG	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ CIT	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs WGA	L64–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Samford

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

L W W L W L L W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L L W W W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O U O U O U O U U U O U O O O O O O U O O U U O O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 14	@ARK	L 75-79	+24.5	W +20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 16	@CARK	W 84-77	-6.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 19	vsFGCU	L 62-77	-5.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 21	@NMSU	L 72-81	+8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsGAST	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUVU	L 45-89	+7.5	L −36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 5	@VCU	L 57-83	+19.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 7	vsCOR	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	166.5	O 183
Jan 1	@VMI	W 78-58	-6.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	@UNCG	L 82-89	-2.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsWCU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 10	@UTC	L 79-88	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsFUR	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 17	vsETSU	L 75-76	+3.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 21	@WOF	L 78-88	+3.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsUTC	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 29	@FUR	L 73-78	+5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 1	@WCU	W 88-74	-1.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 162
Feb 5	vsCIT	W 78-64	-13.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 142
Feb 7	vsMER	W 69-49	+1.5	W +21.5	160.5	U 118
Feb 11	vsWOF	W 97-80	-6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 14	@ETSU	W 82-72	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 19	@CIT	W 78-75	-10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 21	@MER	L 86-89	+3.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 175
Feb 26	vsVMI	W 80-61	-17.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsUNCG	W 87-78	-8.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 7	vsFUR	L 81-86	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

ARK

L 75-79

+20.5

CARK

W 84-77

+0.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−20.5

NMSU

L 72-81

−0.5

GAST

W 78-63

+9.5

UVU

L 45-89

−36.5

VCU

L 57-83

−6.5

COR

W 93-90

+0.5

VMI

W 78-58

+13.5

UNCG

L 82-89

−9.5

WCU

W 82-77

+0.5

UTC

L 79-88

−7.5

FUR

L 73-77

−2.5

ETSU

L 75-76

+2.5

WOF

L 78-88

−6.5

UTC

W 75-64

+6.5

FUR

L 73-78

+0.5

WCU

W 88-74

+12.5

CIT

W 78-64

+0.5

MER

W 69-49

+21.5

WOF

W 97-80

+10.5

ETSU

W 82-72

+17.5

CIT

W 78-75

−7.5

MER

L 86-89

+0.5

VMI

W 80-61

+1.5

UNCG

W 87-78

+0.5

FUR

L 81-86

−6.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

ARK

L 75-79

−4.5

CARK

W 84-77

+9.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−15.5

NMSU

L 72-81

+7.5

GAST

W 78-63

−5.5

UVU

L 45-89

−14.5

VCU

L 57-83

−14.5

COR

W 93-90

+16.5

VMI

W 78-58

−18.5

UNCG

L 82-89

+19.5

WCU

W 82-77

+5.5

UTC

L 79-88

+18.5

FUR

L 73-77

+0.5

ETSU

L 75-76

+2.5

WOF

L 78-88

+11.5

UTC

W 75-64

−13.5

FUR

L 73-78

+1.5

WCU

W 88-74

+7.5

CIT

W 78-64

−4.5

MER

W 69-49

−42.5

WOF

W 97-80

+26.5

ETSU

W 82-72

+8.5

CIT

W 78-75

+9.5

MER

L 86-89

+18.5

VMI

W 80-61

−14.5

UNCG

W 87-78

+8.5

FUR

L 81-86

+19.5

over 19under 11avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC Upstate has the better starters

Position by position: Samford 0, SC Upstate 1, even 4

SamfordBetterSC Upstate

G N. George TR11.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25

No call

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

G C. Norris8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2 ast Score 34

UPSTSmall

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

G C. Noard TR19 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 94

No call

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G I. Campbell-Finch7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

No call

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G T. Davis TR1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 22

Even

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

SamfordBetterSC Upstate

SAM offense147th of 366 · -4.5

SAMBig

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

SAM defense224th of 366 · -5.9

SAMSmall

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

UPSTBig

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

Bench-3.6 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSAM betterUPST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Samford

Guards

N. George35 min · TRC. Norris31 minC. Noard29 min · TRI. Campbell-Finch24 minT. Davis11 min · TRW. Miller9 min · TR

Forwards

J. Bjornstad8 minB. MacVicar7 min · TRC. Harrison3 minJ. HughesNewB. KempNew

Centers

W. Shaver9 minL. LeeNew

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAM77.8 #98

UPST71.0 #265

Points per possession

SAM1.12 #99

UPST1.00 #324

Pace (possessions)

SAM69.3 #163

UPST70.5 #97

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAM53.1 #101

UPST48.3 #307

3-point %

SAM35.6 #84

UPST31.4 #308

3-point attempt rate

SAM45.7 #54

UPST35.6 #256

Free throw rate

SAM41.9 #32

UPST32.8 #239

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAM13.4 #11

UPST18.1 #274

Offensive rebound rate

SAM25.3 #333

UPST29.2 #231

Assists per game

SAM14.3 #128

UPST11.7 #304

Defense

Points allowed

SAM77.0 #240

UPST75.7 #210

Points allowed per possession

SAM1.11 #251

UPST1.08 #170

Opponent effective FG%

SAM51.9 #206

UPST51.0 #156

Opponent 3-point %

SAM36.5 #326

UPST35.6 #289

Turnovers forced

SAM13.0 #354

UPST16.5 #185

Defensive rebound rate

SAM74.3 #17

UPST68.6 #224

Steals per game

SAM4.4 #358

UPST6.1 #220

Blocks per game

SAM2.7 #277

UPST4.7 #24

SAM		UPST
Scoring
77.8 #98	Points per game	71.0 #265
1.12 #99	Points per possession	1.00 #324
69.3 #163	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #97
Shooting
53.1 #101	Effective FG%	48.3 #307
35.6 #84	3-point %	31.4 #308
45.7 #54	3-point attempt rate	35.6 #256
41.9 #32	Free throw rate	32.8 #239
Possessions
13.4 #11	Turnover rate	18.1 #274
25.3 #333	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #231
14.3 #128	Assists per game	11.7 #304
Defense
77.0 #240	Points allowed	75.7 #210
1.11 #251	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #170
51.9 #206	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #156
36.5 #326	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #289
13.0 #354	Turnovers forced	16.5 #185
74.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	68.6 #224
4.4 #358	Steals per game	6.1 #220
2.7 #277	Blocks per game	4.7 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Samford

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman81–86
Wvs UNC Greensboro87–78
Wvs VMI80–61
L@ Mercer86–89
W@ The Citadel78–75

A week or more of rest.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

Samford Bulldogs at South Carolina Upstate Spartans

What could decide it: SAM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Samford

SC Upstate

SC Upstate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Samford

SC Upstate