1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. UNCA @ SAM
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Samford Bulldogs

Pete Hanna Center · at Samford
#271UNCAUNC Asheville
@
#184SAMSamford
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCAThis seasonSAM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SAM 77–69 · win probability SAM 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SAM has more of the edges

UNCA 1, SAM 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCASmall
Three-pointers
UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%; SAM hits 35.6% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 33.6% and 45.7% of their shots
SAMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCA 40.0, SAM 41.9. Allowed: UNCA 38.7, SAM 32.9
SAMSmall
SAM offense vs UNCA defense
Offense 147th of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings
SAMSmall
UNCA offense vs SAM defense
Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 224th, on the model’s ratings
SAMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCA 17.4%, SAM 13.4%. Forced: UNCA 15.5%, SAM 13.0%
SAMSmall
Home court
SAM at home. This season: SAM 0-0 at home, UNCA 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCA 29.8%, SAM 25.3%. Defensive: UNCA 68.7%, SAM 74.3%
Context
Schedule so far
UNCA has played the 214th-hardest schedule, SAM the 251st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UNCA plays 68.0 a game (230th fastest), SAM 69.3 (163rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3; SAM 53.1 and allows 51.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCA 30%, SAM 41%. Transfers in: UNCA 4, SAM 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SAM -8.0—
Total—146.7—
Projected score—UNCA 69.3 · SAM 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSAM -4.6—
1H total68.6—
1H projected scoreUNCA 32 · SAM 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Samford has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Asheville 0, Samford 2, even 3
UNC AshevilleBetterSamford
G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15
Even
G N. George TR11.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25
G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9
SAMSmall
G C. Norris8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2 ast Score 34
G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Noard TR19 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 94
F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5
Even
G I. Campbell-Finch7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13
F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
SAMSmall
G T. Davis TR1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 22
UNC AshevilleBetterSamford
UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1
SAMSmall
SAM defense224th of 366 · -5.9
UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1
SAMSmall
SAM offense147th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.6 · 3 players
UNCASmall
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNCA betterSAM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Asheville
Guards
K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew
Forwards
M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew
Samford
Guards
N. George35 min · TRC. Norris31 minC. Noard29 min · TRI. Campbell-Finch24 minT. Davis11 min · TRW. Miller9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Bjornstad8 minB. MacVicar7 min · TRC. Harrison3 minJ. HughesNewB. KempNew
Centers
W. Shaver9 minL. LeeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCASAM
Scoring
71.9 #248Points per game77.8 #98
1.06 #236Points per possession1.12 #99
68.0 #230Pace (possessions)69.3 #163
Shooting
51.0 #194Effective FG%53.1 #101
35.1 #1103-point %35.6 #84
33.6 #3073-point attempt rate45.7 #54
40.0 #60Free throw rate41.9 #32
Possessions
17.4 #230Turnover rate13.4 #11
29.8 #211Offensive rebound rate25.3 #333
10.1 #358Assists per game14.3 #128
Defense
74.2 #161Points allowed77.0 #240
1.09 #203Points allowed per possession1.11 #251
51.3 #175Opponent effective FG%51.9 #206
32.6 #93Opponent 3-point %36.5 #326
15.5 #251Turnovers forced13.0 #354
68.7 #218Defensive rebound rate74.3 #17
5.1 #324Steals per game4.4 #358
3.5 #133Blocks per game2.7 #277
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point71–75
  • Wvs Longwood85–82
  • Lvs Charleston So75–92
  • W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
  • Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

Samford

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman81–86
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro87–78
  • Wvs VMI80–61
  • L@ Mercer86–89
  • W@ The Citadel78–75

A week or more of rest.