1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. UAPB @ ARST
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas State Red Wolves

First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#171ARSTArkansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonARST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 87–70 · win probability ARST 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

UAPB 1, ARST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, ARST 73.0%
ARSTBig
ARST offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
ARSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3
ARSTSmall
UAPB offense vs ARST defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UAPBSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, ARST 14.9%
ARSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, ARST 39.1. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, ARST 37.0
ARSTSmall
Home court
ARST at home. This season: ARST 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 37.1% and 44.9% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARST -17.0—
Total—157.3—
Projected score—UAPB 70.2 · ARST 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARST -10.0—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreUAPB 31.8 · ARST 41.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas St has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, Arkansas St 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterArkansas St
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
ARSTBig
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
AR-Pine BluffBetterArkansas St
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
ARSTSmall
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
ARSTBig
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
ARSTBig
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBARST
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game81.8 #33
1.04 #277Points per possession1.11 #117
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)73.4 #16
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%51.7 #164
33.6 #1903-point %32.9 #240
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate44.9 #70
38.4 #91Free throw rate39.1 #78
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate19.8 #344
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate38.2 #6
14.1 #136Assists per game15.3 #77
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed78.0 #268
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.07 #121
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%50.3 #117
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %32.9 #115
16.4 #192Turnovers forced14.9 #298
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate73.0 #36
6.8 #142Steals per game7.2 #110
2.9 #244Blocks per game2.8 #268
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.