Washington State Cougars vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM ETNeutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Washington St and Hawai'i
WSU	This season	HAW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HAW 75–75 · win probability HAW 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

WSU 0, HAW 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

WSU has played the 100th-hardest schedule, HAW the 242nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

HAWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSU 30.2, HAW 41.4. Allowed: WSU 33.0, HAW 35.6

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WSU plays 68.9 a game (183rd fastest), HAW 73.0 (19th). Faster games mean more points

HAWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSU 18.5%, HAW 18.8%. Forced: WSU 14.5%, HAW 16.8%

HAWSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSU 54.7 and allows 52.6; HAW 52.0 and allows 46.8

HAWSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSU 29.5%, HAW 31.3%. Defensive: WSU 71.8%, HAW 74.7%

Even

HAW offense vs WSU defense

Offense 136th of 366 against a defense 166th, on the model’s ratings

Even

WSU offense vs HAW defense

Offense 130th of 366 against a defense 150th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSU 1%, HAW 10%. Transfers in: WSU 8, HAW 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Three-pointers

WSU hits 36.5% and allows 35.4%; HAW hits 31.7% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 44.8% and 39.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HAW -0.4	—
Total	—	150.1	—
Projected score	—	WSU 74.8 · HAW 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HAW -0.1	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	WSU 35 · HAW 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WSU WLWLL	15-16	48%	1-3	—
HAW WLWWL	13-16	45%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WSU neutral site; HAW neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OOUOU	16-15	52%	11-20
HAW OOUUO	14-15	48%	22-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
HAW	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs DUKE	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs SHSU	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs IDHO	L81–83LO

Hawai'i

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs UIW	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ USD	W77–66WO
Dec 4	@ LMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WSU 0–1 HAWHAW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 23, 2022-23	WSU 51 @ HAW 62	HAW +2.5	HAW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Washington St

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L W L W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W L W W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O O U O O O U O U O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIDHO	L 81-83	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 164
Nov 7	@DAV	L 69-85	+4.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 10	vsSTMN	W 81-71	-2.5	W +7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 14	vsWASH	L 69-81	+8.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 19	vsSUU	W 98-74	-12.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 25	vsASU	L 94-100	+4.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsHALL	L 61-75	+8.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	@BRAD	L 60-64	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 124
Dec 7	vsNEV	L 64-78	-2.5	L −16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 14	@USC	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 129
Dec 17	vsEWU	W 78-63	-6.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 141
Dec 20	vsMER	W 84-78	-7.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 162
Dec 28	@PORT	W 67-62	-3.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 129
Dec 30	@SEA	L 55-69	+6.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 2	vsLMU	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 154
Jan 4	vsORST	W 81-67	-6.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 10	@SMC	L 82-88	+15.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 15	vsGONZ	L 65-86	+16.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 151
Jan 18	@SF	L 80-85	+5.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 21	@USD	L 92-96	-1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 188
Jan 24	vsPEPP	W 95-79	-11.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 174
Jan 28	vsSEA	W 70-58	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsPORT	W 104-74	-8.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 4	@ORST	L 64-74	-1.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsSCU	L 92-96	+8.5	W +4.5	160.5	O 188
Feb 10	@GONZ	L 53-83	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 136
Feb 18	vsPAC	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 21	vsSMC	L 67-83	+8.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	@LMU	L 66-67	+1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 133
Feb 28	@PEPP	L 79-88	-7.5	L −16.5	158.5	O 167
Mar 6	vsPORT	L 68-74	-5.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDHO

L 81-83

−9.5

DAV

L 69-85

−11.5

STMN

W 81-71

+7.5

WASH

L 69-81

−3.5

SUU

W 98-74

+11.5

ASU

L 94-100

−1.5

HALL

L 61-75

−5.5

BRAD

L 60-64

+1.5

NEV

L 64-78

−16.5

USC

L 61-68

+5.5

EWU

W 78-63

+8.5

MER

W 84-78

−1.5

PORT

W 67-62

+1.5

SEA

L 55-69

−7.5

LMU

W 78-76

−1.5

ORST

W 81-67

+7.5

SMC

L 82-88

+9.5

GONZ

L 65-86

−4.5

L 80-85

+0.5

USD

L 92-96

−5.5

PEPP

W 95-79

+4.5

SEA

W 70-58

+10.5

PORT

W 104-74

+21.5

ORST

L 64-74

−11.5

SCU

L 92-96

+4.5

GONZ

L 53-83

−8.5

PAC

W 87-70

+14.5

SMC

L 67-83

−7.5

LMU

L 66-67

+0.5

PEPP

L 79-88

−16.5

PORT

L 68-74

−11.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDHO

L 81-83

+9.5

DAV

L 69-85

+0.5

STMN

W 81-71

−5.5

WASH

L 69-81

−8.5

SUU

W 98-74

+14.5

ASU

L 94-100

+36.5

HALL

L 61-75

−11.5

BRAD

L 60-64

−24.5

NEV

L 64-78

−3.5

USC

L 61-68

−27.5

EWU

W 78-63

−12.5

MER

W 84-78

+10.5

PORT

W 67-62

−23.5

SEA

L 55-69

−20.5

LMU

W 78-76

+11.5

ORST

W 81-67

+7.5

SMC

L 82-88

+26.5

GONZ

L 65-86

−4.5

L 80-85

+18.5

USD

L 92-96

+35.5

PEPP

W 95-79

+27.5

SEA

W 70-58

−14.5

PORT

W 104-74

+25.5

ORST

L 64-74

−9.5

SCU

L 92-96

+27.5

GONZ

L 53-83

−20.5

PAC

W 87-70

+12.5

SMC

L 67-83

+0.5

LMU

L 66-67

−16.5

PEPP

L 79-88

+8.5

PORT

L 68-74

−7.5

over 16under 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawai'i

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W L W L L W––L W L L W L W W L L L W L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1548%

U O U U U O U––U U O U U U O U O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ORE	L 59-60	+11.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsETAM	W 100-74	-18.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMVSU	W 88-56	-41.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsMAN	W 86-56	-15.5	W +14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsUTU	W 68-62	-16.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsASU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 28	vsUND	W 92-55	-18.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 4	vsUCD	W 75-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 6	vsCSUF	W 69-59	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	vsUTEP	W 66-61	-12.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UCR	W 88-45	-8.5	W +34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 3	@UCSD	L 73-83	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsUCI	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 15	@CP	W 86-66	-5.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 152
Jan 17	@UCSB	L 62-77	-2.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 22	vsCSUB	W 98-71	-17.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsCSUN	W 89-68	-10.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	@UCI	L 76-87	+1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 31	@LBSU	W 89-82	-8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsUCSD	W 72-67	-6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	@CSUB	W 89-74	-13.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 14	@CSUN	L 60-84	-2.5	L −26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	vsCP	L 75-86	-11.5	L −22.5	160.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsUCSB	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 26	@UCD	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 28	@CSUF	W 87-85	-3.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsUCR	W 93-74	-12.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsLBSU	L 75-84	-14.5	L −23.5	150.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsCSUF	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 141
Mar 14	vsUCI	W 71-64	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 135
Mar 19	vsARK	L 78-97	+14.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

+10.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+7.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−9.5

MAN

W 86-56

+14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−10.5

ASU

L 76-83

−8.5

UND

W 92-55

+18.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−7.5

UCR

W 88-45

+34.5

UCSD

L 73-83

−7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−3.5

W 86-66

+14.5

UCSB

L 62-77

−17.5

CSUB

W 98-71

+9.5

CSUN

W 89-68

+10.5

UCI

L 76-87

−9.5

LBSU

W 89-82

−1.5

UCSD

W 72-67

−1.5

CSUB

W 89-74

+1.5

CSUN

L 60-84

−26.5

L 75-86

−22.5

UCSB

W 78-75

−2.5

UCD

W 77-73

+2.5

CSUF

W 87-85

−1.5

UCR

W 93-74

+6.5

LBSU

L 75-84

−23.5

CSUF

W 78-63

+9.5

UCI

W 71-64

+8.5

ARK

L 78-97

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

−25.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+28.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−7.5

MAN

W 86-56

−14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−19.5

ASU

L 76-83

+15.5

UND

W 92-55

−2.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−11.5

UCR

W 88-45

−16.5

UCSD

L 73-83

+7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−7.5

W 86-66

−8.5

UCSB

L 62-77

−4.5

CSUB

W 98-71

+24.5

CSUN

W 89-68

−1.5

UCI

L 76-87

+18.5

LBSU

W 89-82

+26.5

UCSD

W 72-67

−10.5

CSUB

W 89-74

+11.5

CSUN

L 60-84

−18.5

L 75-86

+0.5

UCSB

W 78-75

+7.5

UCD

W 77-73

+3.5

CSUF

W 87-85

+13.5

UCR

W 93-74

+16.5

LBSU

L 75-84

+8.5

CSUF

W 78-63

−16.5

UCI

W 71-64

−6.5

ARK

L 78-97

+16.5

over 14under 15avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Washington St 1, Hawai'i 1, even 3

Washington StBetterHawai'i

G S. Akins TR5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 57

WSUSmall

G C. Trujillo TR12.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 39

F F. Roxburgh TR10.9 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21

HAWSmall

G I. Kerr6.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38

F R. Harrison TR14.2 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67

Even

F Z. Davidson TR12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 69

F L. Dembele TR5.2 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

No call

C B. Dengdit TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 62

F T. Kropp TR3.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 48

Even

C H. Dan TR5.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 36

Washington StBetterHawai'i

WSU offense130th of 366 · -3.5

Even

HAW defense150th of 366 · -3.3

WSU defense166th of 366 · -3.7

Even

HAW offense136th of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-0.2 · 1 player

WSUSmall

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 4 players

HAWBig

Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestWSU betterHAW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Washington St

Guards

S. Akins15 min · TRJ. Phillips11 min · TRJ. Harrell9 min · TRR. Jones7 min · TRD. Blakely1 minC. JonesNew

Forwards

F. Roxburgh31 min · TRR. Harrison31 min · TRL. Dembele20 min · TRT. Kropp12 min · TRM. SankheNewB. KymanNew

Hawai'i

Guards

C. Trujillo34 min · TRI. Kerr21 minT. CuffNewJ. MatingouNewL. AwanNewS. BelnapNew

Forwards

Z. Davidson24 min · TRM. Adams12 min · TRM. Joses9 min · TRK. HamptonNew

Centers

B. Dengdit23 min · TRH. Dan15 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSU75.7 #152

HAW78.7 #86

Points per possession

WSU1.10 #136

HAW1.08 #186

Pace (possessions)

WSU68.9 #183

HAW73.0 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSU54.7 #48

HAW52.0 #148

3-point %

WSU36.5 #40

HAW31.7 #298

3-point attempt rate

WSU44.8 #73

HAW39.8 #175

Free throw rate

WSU30.2 #305

HAW41.4 #38

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSU18.5 #295

HAW18.8 #315

Offensive rebound rate

WSU29.5 #221

HAW31.3 #154

Assists per game

WSU13.8 #163

HAW13.3 #187

Defense

Points allowed

WSU77.3 #245

HAW71.2 #76

Points allowed per possession

WSU1.12 #266

HAW0.98 #10

Opponent effective FG%

WSU52.6 #248

HAW46.8 #19

Opponent 3-point %

WSU35.4 #273

HAW30.3 #13

Turnovers forced

WSU14.5 #322

HAW16.8 #167

Defensive rebound rate

WSU71.8 #71

HAW74.7 #11

Steals per game

WSU5.5 #299

HAW6.5 #175

Blocks per game

WSU2.9 #242

HAW4.0 #73

WSU		HAW
Scoring
75.7 #152	Points per game	78.7 #86
1.10 #136	Points per possession	1.08 #186
68.9 #183	Pace (possessions)	73.0 #19
Shooting
54.7 #48	Effective FG%	52.0 #148
36.5 #40	3-point %	31.7 #298
44.8 #73	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #175
30.2 #305	Free throw rate	41.4 #38
Possessions
18.5 #295	Turnover rate	18.8 #315
29.5 #221	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #154
13.8 #163	Assists per game	13.3 #187
Defense
77.3 #245	Points allowed	71.2 #76
1.12 #266	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #10
52.6 #248	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #19
35.4 #273	Opponent 3-point %	30.3 #13
14.5 #322	Turnovers forced	16.8 #167
71.8 #71	Defensive rebound rate	74.7 #11
5.5 #299	Steals per game	6.5 #175
2.9 #242	Blocks per game	4.0 #73

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Washington St

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Portland68–74
L@ Pepperdine79–88
L@ LMU66–67
Lvs Saint Mary's67–83
Wvs Pacific87–70

A week or more of rest.

Hawai'i

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas78–97
Wvs UC Irvine71–64
Wvs Fullerton78–63
Lvs Long Beach St75–84
Wvs UC Riverside93–74

A week or more of rest.

Washington State Cougars vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Washington St

Hawai'i

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Washington St

Hawai'i