Pan American Center · at New Mexico St
LineNo line yet
Total—
 UTEP | This season | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NMSU 76–68 · win probability NMSU 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NMSU has more of the edges
UTEP 0, NMSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NMSUBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTEP 26.2%, NMSU 32.5%. Defensive: UTEP 67.2%, NMSU 69.7%
NMSUSmallUTEP offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 226th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
NMSUSmallShooting
Effective FG%: UTEP 48.3 and allows 51.5; NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7
NMSUSmallHome court
NMSU at home. This season: NMSU 0-0 at home, UTEP 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTEP 0%, NMSU 22%. Transfers in: UTEP 7, NMSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UTEP plays 66.6 a game (291st fastest), NMSU 68.1 (224th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTEP 17.4%, NMSU 15.0%. Forced: UTEP 18.0%, NMSU 14.7%
Even
NMSU offense vs UTEP defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 173rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UTEP has played the 163rd-hardest schedule, NMSU the 174th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
UTEP hits 33.9% and allows 34.0%; NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 40.3% and 38.7% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTEP 33.4, NMSU 34.9. Allowed: UTEP 42.0, NMSU 44.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | NMSU -7.3 | — |
| Total | — | 144.2 | — |
| Projected score | — | UTEP 68.4 · NMSU 75.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NMSU -4.2 | — |
| 1H total | 67.5 | — |
| 1H projected score | UTEP 31.6 · NMSU 35.9 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| NMSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
UTEP 4–6 NMSUNMSU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTEP 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2025-26 | UTEP 63 @ NMSU 67 | NMSU -7.5 | UTEP W |
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | NMSU 88 @ UTEP 91 | UTEP +1.5 | UTEP W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | UTEP 66 @ NMSU 63 | NMSU -0.5 | UTEP W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | NMSU 85 @ UTEP 57 | UTEP -6.5 | NMSU W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | NMSU 49 @ UTEP 74 | UTEP -5.5 | UTEP W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UTEP
28 games played
Straight up
8-20
29% wins
Against the spread
13-15
46% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-15
46% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | vs LMU | L 58-71 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 15 | @ USU | L 51-75 | +16.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 24 | vs W&M | L 63-74 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs UAB | L 59-75 | +8.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 7 | @ SEA | L 68-75 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 13 | @ HAW | L 61-66 | +12.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 21 | vs NORF | L 71-72 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs NDSU | W 76-66 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 139.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 29 | @ LT | L 63-75 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Jan 2 | @ MOST | L 55-79 | +3.5 | L −20.5 | 131.5 | O 134 |
| Jan 4 | @ FIU | L 64-76 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | vs MTSU | W 83-80 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 137.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 10 | vs WKU | L 56-68 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 15 | @ DEL | W 70-69 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 125.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 17 | @ LIB | L 69-80 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 22 | vsFIU | W 83-77 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vsMOST | L 57-62 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 28 | vsLT | L 59-69 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 130.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 31 | vsDEL | W 70-55 | -6.5 | W +8.5 | 128.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 4 | @ SHSU | L 66-70 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | vsNMSU | W 91-88 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 11 | @ JXST | W 69-64 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 14 | vsLIB | L 64-73 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 21 | @NMSU | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 26 | @MTSU | L 67-77 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 28 | @WKU | L 65-97 | +9.5 | L −22.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 5 | vs KENN | W 78-71 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Mar 7 | vsJXST | L 61-64 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 139.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vsLMU
LMUL 58-71
−14.5
15
@USU
USUL 51-75
−7.5
24
vsW&M
W&ML 63-74
−8.5
25
vsUAB
UABL 59-75
−7.5
7
@SEA
SEAL 68-75
+5.5
13
@HAW
HAWL 61-66
+7.5
21
vsNORF
NORFL 71-72
−11.5
22
vsNDSU
NDSUW 76-66
+12.5
29
@LT
LTL 63-75
−9.5
2
@MOST
MOSTL 55-79
−20.5
4
@FIU
FIUL 64-76
−5.5
8
vsMTSU
MTSUW 83-80
+6.5
10
vsWKU
WKUL 56-68
−8.5
15
@DEL
DELW 70-69
+2.5
17
@LIB
LIBL 69-80
+2.5
22
vsFIU
FIUW 83-77
+7.5
24
vsMOST
MOSTL 57-62
−3.5
28
vsLT
LTL 59-69
−12.5
31
vsDEL
DELW 70-55
+8.5
4
@SHSU
SHSUL 66-70
+6.5
7
vsNMSU
NMSUW 91-88
+4.5
11
@JXST
JXSTW 69-64
+11.5
14
vsLIB
LIBL 64-73
−2.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 63-67
+3.5
26
@MTSU
MTSUL 67-77
−1.5
28
@WKU
WKUL 65-97
−22.5
5
vsKENN
KENNW 78-71
+10.5
7
vsJXST
JXSTL 61-64
−1.5
covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsLMU
LMUL 58-71
−15.5
15
@USU
USUL 51-75
−23.5
24
vsW&M
W&ML 63-74
−22.5
25
vsUAB
UABL 59-75
−12.5
7
@SEA
SEAL 68-75
+6.5
13
@HAW
HAWL 61-66
−11.5
21
vsNORF
NORFL 71-72
+6.5
22
vsNDSU
NDSUW 76-66
+2.5
29
@LT
LTL 63-75
+7.5
2
@MOST
MOSTL 55-79
+2.5
4
@FIU
FIUL 64-76
−12.5
8
vsMTSU
MTSUW 83-80
+25.5
10
vsWKU
WKUL 56-68
−20.5
15
@DEL
DELW 70-69
+13.5
17
@LIB
LIBL 69-80
+11.5
22
vsFIU
FIUW 83-77
+8.5
24
vsMOST
MOSTL 57-62
−20.5
28
vsLT
LTL 59-69
−2.5
31
vsDEL
DELW 70-55
−3.5
4
@SHSU
SHSUL 66-70
−9.5
7
vsNMSU
NMSUW 91-88
+40.5
11
@JXST
JXSTW 69-64
−1.5
14
vsLIB
LIBL 64-73
−2.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 63-67
−12.5
26
@MTSU
MTSUL 67-77
+4.5
28
@WKU
WKUL 65-97
+16.5
5
vsKENN
KENNW 78-71
+0.5
7
vsJXST
JXSTL 61-64
−14.5
over 13under 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
New Mexico St
29 games played
Straight up
13-16
45% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-13
55% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | vs UNM | W 76-68 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAM | W 81-72 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCI | W 57-45 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 102 |
| Nov 26 | vs GAST | W 77-58 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | vs USA | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ ACU | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs TLSA | L 70-83 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 21 | vsSHSU | W 87-78 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @FIU | L 74-89 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | @MOST | L 82-89 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 8 | vsWKU | W 80-64 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vsMTSU | L 55-59 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 15 | @LIB | L 71-73 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @DEL | W 97-68 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 134.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 22 | vsMOST | L 75-84 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsFIU | L 78-81 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 28 | vsDEL | L 64-73 | -13.5 | L −22.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | @KENN | L 53-76 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 159.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 4 | @LT | W 72-63 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 7 | @UTEP | L 88-91 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 138.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 11 | vsLIB | L 75-77 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 14 | @JXST | W 79-70 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsUTEP | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 26 | @WKU | L 70-93 | +4.5 | L −18.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 28 | @MTSU | L 85-86 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 5 | vsJXST | W 77-75 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 7 | vsKENN | W 79-76 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Mar 10 | vsJXST | W 68-63 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 11 | vsSHSU | L 61-69 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
−4.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
−9.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
−8.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+3.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
−16.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
−5.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
+13.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−7.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
+6.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+24.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
−15.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−10.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−22.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−19.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
+10.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
−4.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+1.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+10.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−3.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
−18.5
28
@MTSU
MTSUL 85-86
+4.5
5
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-75
−4.5
7
vsKENN
KENNW 79-76
+1.5
10
vsJXST
JXSTW 68-63
+3.5
11
vsSHSU
SHSUL 61-69
−3.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
+16.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
+14.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
+6.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+11.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
+5.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
+36.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
−10.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−30.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
−1.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+30.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
+14.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−0.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−0.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−30.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
−0.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
+40.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+7.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+9.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−12.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
+11.5
28
@MTSU
MTSUL 85-86
+22.5
5
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-75
+6.5
7
vsKENN
KENNW 79-76
−2.5
10
vsJXST
JXSTW 68-63
−10.5
11
vsSHSU
SHSUL 61-69
−24.5
over 16under 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
New Mexico St has the better starters
Position by position: UTEP 0, New Mexico St 1, even 4
UTEPBetterNew Mexico St
G L. Moeller TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 46
=Even
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 34
G J. Whiting TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 31
→NMSUBig
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 68
G R. Miller TR12.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 66
=Even
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 65
G R. Jackson TR6.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 53
=Even
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 40
F R. Cason TR3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.3 ast
Score 43
=Even
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 42
UTEPBetterNew Mexico St
UTEP offense226th of 366 · -6.9
→NMSUSmall
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
UTEP defense173rd of 366 · -3.9
=Even
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt-3.1 · 4 players
→NMSUSmall
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
←UTEPSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.1 · 2 players
←UTEPSmall
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUTEP betterNMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UTEPGuards
L. Moeller33 min · TRJ. Whiting32 min · TRR. Miller25 min · TRR. Jackson18 min · TRC. McDanielsNewD. CrissNew
Forwards
R. Cason15 min · TRA. Cassia10 min · TRJ. Ratowski7 min · TRM. KelvinNewI. WardNewI. PerasovicNew
Centers
D. TarpleyNew
New Mexico StGuards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UTEP66.4 #340NMSU73.8 #207Points per possession
UTEP1.00 #326NMSU1.08 #179Pace (possessions)
UTEP66.6 #291NMSU68.1 #224Shooting
Effective FG%
UTEP48.3 #309NMSU48.5 #3023-point %
UTEP33.9 #178NMSU32.4 #2573-point attempt rate
UTEP40.3 #163NMSU38.7 #198Free throw rate
UTEP33.4 #227NMSU34.9 #186Possessions
Turnover rate
UTEP17.4 #229NMSU15.0 #66Offensive rebound rate
UTEP26.2 #319NMSU32.5 #105Assists per game
UTEP11.0 #338NMSU12.5 #250Defense
Points allowed
UTEP72.7 #125NMSU73.8 #150Points allowed per possession
UTEP1.09 #196NMSU1.08 #179Opponent effective FG%
UTEP51.5 #187NMSU48.7 #52Opponent 3-point %
UTEP34.0 #182NMSU32.4 #83Turnovers forced
UTEP18.0 #98NMSU14.7 #311Defensive rebound rate
UTEP67.2 #293NMSU69.7 #175Steals per game
UTEP7.1 #113NMSU5.7 #276Blocks per game
UTEP3.5 #149NMSU3.0 #221| UTEP | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 66.4 #340 | Points per game | 73.8 #207 |
| 1.00 #326 | Points per possession | 1.08 #179 |
| 66.6 #291 | Pace (possessions) | 68.1 #224 |
| Shooting | ||
| 48.3 #309 | Effective FG% | 48.5 #302 |
| 33.9 #178 | 3-point % | 32.4 #257 |
| 40.3 #163 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.7 #198 |
| 33.4 #227 | Free throw rate | 34.9 #186 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #229 | Turnover rate | 15.0 #66 |
| 26.2 #319 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.5 #105 |
| 11.0 #338 | Assists per game | 12.5 #250 |
| Defense | ||
| 72.7 #125 | Points allowed | 73.8 #150 |
| 1.09 #196 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #179 |
| 51.5 #187 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.7 #52 |
| 34.0 #182 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.4 #83 |
| 18.0 #98 | Turnovers forced | 14.7 #311 |
| 67.2 #293 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.7 #175 |
| 7.1 #113 | Steals per game | 5.7 #276 |
| 3.5 #149 | Blocks per game | 3.0 #221 |
UTEP
8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Jax State61–64
- Wvs Kennesaw St78–71
- L@ Western KY65–97
- L@ MTSU67–77
- L@ New Mexico St63–67
A week or more of rest.
New Mexico St
13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Sam Houston61–69
- Wvs Jax State68–63
- Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
- Wvs Jax State77–75
- L@ MTSU85–86
A week or more of rest.