1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. ALCN @ TAR
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Alcorn State Braves at Tarleton State Texans

ECCU Center · at Tarleton St
#360ALCNAlcorn St
@
#185TARTarleton St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALCNThis seasonTAR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TAR 81–65 · win probability TAR 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TAR has more of the edges

ALCN 1, TAR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TARBig
ALCN offense vs TAR defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 186th, on the model’s ratings
TARBig
TAR offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 200th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
ALCNSmall
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; TAR hits 32.5% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 33.7% and 24.2% of their shots
TARSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, TAR 31.5%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, TAR 64.9%
TARSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, TAR 41.9. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, TAR 47.7
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, TAR the 212th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TARSmall
Home court
TAR at home. This season: TAR 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, TAR 19.9%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, TAR 23.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), TAR 71.2 (64th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; TAR 48.3 and allows 53.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, TAR 23%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, TAR 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TAR -16.3—
Total—145.8—
Projected score—ALCN 64.8 · TAR 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTAR -9.6—
1H total68.2—
1H projected scoreALCN 29.3 · TAR 38.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Alcorn St 1, Tarleton St 1, even 3
Alcorn StBetterTarleton St
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Blackwell TR10.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 52
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G F. Emmou TR7.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 36
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Kelly5.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 41
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
TARBig
G T. Cope TR8.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 47
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
ALCNSmall
F I. Harrell TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
Alcorn StBetterTarleton St
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
TARBig
TAR defense186th of 366 · -4.3
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
TARBig
TAR offense200th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
ALCNSmall
Backcourt-3.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterTAR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
Tarleton St
Guards
C. Blackwell31 min · TRF. Emmou23 min · TRL. Kelly21 minT. Cope21 min · TRK. Douglas16 minJ. Martinez2 min
Forwards
I. Harrell26 min · TRJ. Daniel19 min · TRJ. Hayes13 min · TRJ. Mani12 min · TRM. Vrabel7 minE. CarterNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNTAR
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game72.5 #231
0.96 #352Points per possession1.01 #309
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)71.2 #64
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%48.3 #306
33.3 #2093-point %32.5 #256
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate24.2 #365
31.8 #259Free throw rate41.9 #33
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate19.9 #348
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate31.5 #141
11.1 #333Assists per game10.5 #349
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed75.8 #211
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.07 #130
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%53.6 #285
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %34.9 #244
18.1 #92Turnovers forced23.5 #2
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate64.9 #340
7.7 #63Steals per game9.7 #3
3.4 #162Blocks per game3.1 #206
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Tarleton St

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Abilene Chrstn78–84
  • Lvs UT Arlington60–65
  • L@ CA Baptist67–82
  • L@ Utah Valley72–79
  • Lvs Utah Tech72–80

A week or more of rest.