1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. GASO @ UCF
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Georgia Southern Eagles at UCF Knights

Addition Financial Arena · at UCF
#296GASOGA Southern
@
#39UCFUCF
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GASOThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 95–68 · win probability UCF 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 163.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

GASO 2, UCF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCFBig
UCF offense vs GASO defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GASO has played the 279th-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GASO 28.8%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: GASO 64.8%, UCF 71.2%
UCFBig
GASO offense vs UCF defense
Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
GASOBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GASO 14.7%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: GASO 18.7%, UCF 15.7%
UCFSmall
Three-pointers
GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 48.9% and 34.8% of their shots
UCFSmall
Home court
UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, GASO 0-0 away
GASOSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GASO 39.6, UCF 30.5. Allowed: GASO 41.4, UCF 34.9
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: GASO plays 71.8 a game (42nd fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GASO 16%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: GASO 3, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCF -27.3—
Total—163.1—
Projected score—GASO 67.9 · UCF 95.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCF -16.1—
1H total76.2—
1H projected scoreGASO 30 · UCF 46.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCF has the better starters

Position by position: GA Southern 0, UCF 3, even 2
GA SouthernBetterUCF
G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39
Even
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10
UCFBig
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
UCFBig
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
UCFBig
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
GA SouthernBetterUCF
GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2
UCFBig
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4
UCFBig
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players
UCFBig
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players
UCFBig
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.8 · 1 player
UCFSmall
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGASO betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
GA Southern
Guards
J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew
Forwards
T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GASOUCF
Scoring
79.9 #69Points per game80.7 #53
1.12 #109Points per possession1.13 #77
71.8 #42Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
51.4 #176Effective FG%52.6 #123
33.4 #2073-point %36.2 #49
48.9 #203-point attempt rate34.8 #281
39.6 #62Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
14.7 #49Turnover rate16.0 #137
28.8 #238Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
10.7 #344Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
80.3 #325Points allowed78.3 #274
1.11 #259Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
52.3 #230Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
34.4 #208Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
18.7 #65Turnovers forced15.7 #241
64.8 #342Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
8.1 #36Steals per game5.6 #285
3.6 #128Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy61–77
  • Wvs Marshall82–78
  • Wvs Coastal96–72
  • Wvs South Alabama94–85
  • Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.