1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. MILW @ TCU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Milwaukee Panthers at TCU Horned Frogs

Schollmaier Arena · at TCU
#234MILWMilwaukee
@
#40TCUTCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MILWThis seasonTCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 88–64 · win probability TCU 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

MILW 0, TCU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TCUBig
TCU offense vs MILW defense
Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, TCU the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TCUBig
MILW offense vs TCU defense
Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
TCUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, TCU 37.5. Allowed: MILW 35.9, TCU 30.4
TCUSmall
Three-pointers
MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 36.8% of their shots
TCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, TCU 15.3%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, TCU 19.5%
TCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2
TCUSmall
Home court
TCU at home. This season: TCU 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), TCU 70.2 (108th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, TCU 52%. Transfers in: MILW 3, TCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, TCU 34.0%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, TCU 70.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TCU -24.1—
Total—151.1—
Projected score—MILW 63.5 · TCU 87.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTCU -14.2—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreMILW 28.2 · TCU 42.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

TCU has the better starters

Position by position: Milwaukee 0, TCU 1, even 4
MilwaukeeBetterTCU
G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14
TCUBig
G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55
Even
G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67
F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78
Even
G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85
F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67
Even
G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75
F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98
MilwaukeeBetterTCU
MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5
TCUBig
TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9
MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6
TCUBig
TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
TCUBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players
TCUSmall
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
TCUSmall
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMILW betterTCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Milwaukee
Guards
I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew
Forwards
D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew
TCU
Guards
G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew
Forwards
X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MILWTCU
Scoring
74.7 #173Points per game77.4 #109
1.09 #172Points per possession1.10 #127
69.1 #174Pace (possessions)70.2 #108
Shooting
49.9 #242Effective FG%50.4 #221
32.3 #2663-point %33.2 #220
38.1 #2123-point attempt rate36.8 #233
32.1 #256Free throw rate37.5 #112
Possessions
15.3 #85Turnover rate15.3 #90
33.0 #88Offensive rebound rate34.0 #67
12.9 #220Assists per game15.4 #71
Defense
79.9 #317Points allowed72.1 #107
1.15 #328Points allowed per possession1.02 #50
55.5 #340Opponent effective FG%51.2 #172
36.5 #329Opponent 3-point %33.5 #158
15.8 #232Turnovers forced19.5 #33
70.8 #121Defensive rebound rate70.9 #112
6.5 #176Steals per game7.7 #61
3.0 #230Blocks per game4.5 #39
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
  • Wvs Youngstown St78–65
  • L@ Oakland70–81
  • L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
  • Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke58–81
  • Wvs Ohio State66–64
  • Lvs Kansas73–78
  • Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
  • Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.