UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ETLawler Arena · at Merrimack

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UMass Lowell and Merrimack
UML	This season	MRMK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRMK 76–66 · win probability MRMK 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

UML 2, MRMK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MRMKBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UML 18.0%, MRMK 14.8%. Forced: UML 14.2%, MRMK 20.4%

UMLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UML 32.7%, MRMK 24.8%. Defensive: UML 70.7%, MRMK 60.1%

MRMKBig

UML offense vs MRMK defense

Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings

MRMKBig

Three-pointers

UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%; MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 31.3% and 46.1% of their shots

MRMKBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UML 49.8 and allows 53.5; MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UML plays 68.9 a game (189th fastest), MRMK 64.4 (357th). Faster games mean more points

UMLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UML 34.9, MRMK 38.2. Allowed: UML 28.3, MRMK 37.1

MRMKSmall

Home court

MRMK at home. This season: MRMK 0-0 at home, UML 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UML 16%, MRMK 37%. Transfers in: UML 3, MRMK 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

UML has played the 312th-hardest schedule, MRMK the 286th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

MRMK offense vs UML defense

Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MRMK -9.7	—
Total	—	141.9	—
Projected score	—	UML 66.1 · MRMK 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -5.7	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	UML 30.4 · MRMK 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UML WLWWL	16-14	53%	9-10	—
MRMK LLWLL	20-14	59%	9-2	—

Venue/role: UML away; MRMK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UML UUUOO	14-16	47%	12-18
MRMK UOUUU	12-22	35%	23-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UML	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
MRMK	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UMass Lowell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs MRST	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ MASS	L60–80LU
Nov 17	vs SPU	L66–68WU

Merrimack

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ UALB	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ FLA	L45–80WU
Nov 18	vs BU	W91–79WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UML 3–1 MRMKUML leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · UML 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2024-25	MRMK 74 @ UML 81	UML -6.5	UML W
Dec 2, 2023-24	UML 68 @ MRMK 74	MRMK +6	MRMK W
Nov 30, 2022-23	MRMK 51 @ UML 77	UML -13.5	UML W
Dec 4, 2021-22	UML 61 @ MRMK 57	MRMK -4.5	UML W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass Lowell

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

L L L L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L L W L W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L L L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

O U O O O U U U U O O O O U U U U U U O U O O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@CONN	L 47-110	+36.5	L −26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsNHVN	L 67-73	-10.5	L −16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 13	@COLU	L 72-86	+13.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	@WAKE	L 75-109	+30.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 19	@BRAD	L 77-87	+21.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 22	@SPU	L 66-68	+8.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 134
Nov 26	@STO	W 75-64	+2.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 6	@MASS	L 60-80	+11.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 13	@QUIN	L 71-75	+12.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsSHU	W 87-82	+2.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 169
Dec 21	@BU	L 76-88	+5.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 29	@IOWA	L 62-90	+33.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 3	vsUALB	W 83-71	-2.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 8	@BRY	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 10	@BING	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 15	vsNJIT	L 64-73	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	U 137
Jan 22	vsUVM	L 68-77	+4.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 24	@UMBC	L 56-79	+2.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 135
Jan 29	@UNH	L 61-66	+3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 31	vsME	W 91-77	-4.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	@NJIT	L 56-81	+1.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 7	@UALB	W 89-79	+4.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsBRY	W 88-69	-4.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 157
Feb 19	vsUNH	W 78-56	-3.5	W +18.5	151.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsBING	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 171
Feb 26	@UVM	L 64-66	+9.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsUMBC	L 60-84	+2.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 3	@ME	W 67-56	-1.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	vsUALB	W 81-76	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 157
Mar 10	@UMBC	L 69-91	+7.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

−26.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−16.5

COLU

L 72-86

−0.5

WAKE

L 75-109

−3.5

BRAD

L 77-87

+11.5

SPU

L 66-68

+6.5

STO

W 75-64

+13.5

MASS

L 60-80

−8.5

QUIN

L 71-75

+8.5

SHU

W 87-82

+7.5

L 76-88

−6.5

IOWA

L 62-90

+5.5

UALB

W 83-71

+9.5

BRY

W 77-63

+16.5

BING

W 73-68

−1.5

NJIT

L 64-73

−17.5

UVM

L 68-77

−4.5

UMBC

L 56-79

−20.5

UNH

L 61-66

−1.5

W 91-77

+9.5

NJIT

L 56-81

−23.5

UALB

W 89-79

+14.5

BRY

W 88-69

+14.5

UNH

W 78-56

+18.5

BING

W 92-79

+3.5

UVM

L 64-66

+7.5

UMBC

L 60-84

−21.5

W 67-56

+9.5

UALB

W 81-76

+2.5

UMBC

L 69-91

−14.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

+5.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−2.5

COLU

L 72-86

+1.5

WAKE

L 75-109

+18.5

BRAD

L 77-87

+14.5

SPU

L 66-68

−13.5

STO

W 75-64

−9.5

MASS

L 60-80

−15.5

QUIN

L 71-75

−7.5

SHU

W 87-82

+17.5

L 76-88

+18.5

IOWA

L 62-90

+6.5

UALB

W 83-71

+3.5

BRY

W 77-63

−3.5

BING

W 73-68

−5.5

NJIT

L 64-73

−8.5

UVM

L 68-77

−0.5

UMBC

L 56-79

−16.5

UNH

L 61-66

−19.5

W 91-77

+31.5

NJIT

L 56-81

−12.5

UALB

W 89-79

+24.5

BRY

W 88-69

+15.5

UNH

W 78-56

−17.5

BING

W 92-79

+24.5

UVM

L 64-66

−16.5

UMBC

L 60-84

−6.5

W 67-56

−16.5

UALB

W 81-76

+10.5

UMBC

L 69-91

+12.5

over 14under 16avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	vsMAN	W 73-66	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	@SIE	W 63-59	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@SPU	L 63-76	+1.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsQUIN	W 83-71	+1.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 19	@MRST	W 68-55	+6.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@IONA	L 60-61	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsSPU	W 67-59	-2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 126
Feb 1	vsSHU	W 75-58	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	@MSM	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@RID	W 73-47	-8.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsMRST	W 81-56	-2.5	W +22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	@QUIN	W 56-49	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 105
Feb 20	vsSIE	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsIONA	W 88-86	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	@CAN	L 62-67	-8.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	@NIA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	126.5	O 139
Mar 6	vsSHU	W 70-48	-6.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 118
Mar 8	vsMRST	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	128.5	U 115
Mar 10	vsSIE	L 54-64	-2.5	L −12.5	128.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

MAN

W 73-66

+0.5

SIE

W 63-59

+9.5

SPU

L 63-76

−11.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+13.5

MRST

W 68-55

+19.5

IONA

L 60-61

−2.5

SPU

W 67-59

+5.5

SHU

W 75-58

+11.5

MSM

W 87-70

+14.5

RID

W 73-47

+17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+22.5

QUIN

W 56-49

+10.5

SIE

W 79-72

+4.5

IONA

W 88-86

−4.5

CAN

L 62-67

−13.5

NIA

W 73-66

−0.5

SHU

W 70-48

+15.5

MRST

W 58-57

−1.5

SIE

L 54-64

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

MAN

W 73-66

−9.5

SIE

W 63-59

−10.5

SPU

L 63-76

+5.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+12.5

MRST

W 68-55

−10.5

IONA

L 60-61

−22.5

SPU

W 67-59

−8.5

SHU

W 75-58

−14.5

MSM

W 87-70

+22.5

RID

W 73-47

−17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+8.5

QUIN

W 56-49

−36.5

SIE

W 79-72

+17.5

IONA

W 88-86

+37.5

CAN

L 62-67

−0.5

NIA

W 73-66

+12.5

SHU

W 70-48

−25.5

MRST

W 58-57

−13.5

SIE

L 54-64

−10.5

over 12under 22avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMass Lowell has the better starters

Position by position: UMass Lowell 2, Merrimack 1, even 2

UMass LowellBetterMerrimack

G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6

MRMKBig

G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

UMLBig

G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19

G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11

Even

F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16

F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59

UMLSmall

F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30

UMass LowellBetterMerrimack

UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9

MRMKBig

MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9

UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2

Even

MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

UMLSmall

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players

UMLSmall

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestUML betterMRMK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UMass Lowell

Guards

C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew

Forwards

V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew

Merrimack

Guards

T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew

Forwards

T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UML71.7 #253

MRMK68.5 #304

Points per possession

UML1.04 #272

MRMK1.06 #221

Pace (possessions)

UML68.9 #189

MRMK64.4 #357

Shooting

Effective FG%

UML49.8 #247

MRMK49.1 #288

3-point %

UML32.2 #269

MRMK32.7 #243

3-point attempt rate

UML31.3 #336

MRMK46.1 #46

Free throw rate

UML34.9 #183

MRMK38.2 #99

Possessions

Turnover rate

UML18.0 #269

MRMK14.8 #55

Offensive rebound rate

UML32.7 #98

MRMK24.8 #343

Assists per game

UML11.9 #294

MRMK12.4 #257

Defense

Points allowed

UML77.4 #249

MRMK66.5 #19

Points allowed per possession

UML1.13 #277

MRMK1.03 #62

Opponent effective FG%

UML53.5 #284

MRMK46.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

UML34.6 #226

MRMK30.3 #12

Turnovers forced

UML14.2 #329

MRMK20.4 #16

Defensive rebound rate

UML70.7 #126

MRMK60.1 #365

Steals per game

UML5.1 #326

MRMK8.2 #32

Blocks per game

UML3.0 #222

MRMK5.2 #13

UML		MRMK
Scoring
71.7 #253	Points per game	68.5 #304
1.04 #272	Points per possession	1.06 #221
68.9 #189	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #357
Shooting
49.8 #247	Effective FG%	49.1 #288
32.2 #269	3-point %	32.7 #243
31.3 #336	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #46
34.9 #183	Free throw rate	38.2 #99
Possessions
18.0 #269	Turnover rate	14.8 #55
32.7 #98	Offensive rebound rate	24.8 #343
11.9 #294	Assists per game	12.4 #257
Defense
77.4 #249	Points allowed	66.5 #19
1.13 #277	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #62
53.5 #284	Opponent effective FG%	46.7 #17
34.6 #226	Opponent 3-point %	30.3 #12
14.2 #329	Turnovers forced	20.4 #16
70.7 #126	Defensive rebound rate	60.1 #365
5.1 #326	Steals per game	8.2 #32
3.0 #222	Blocks per game	5.2 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC69–91
Wvs UAlbany81–76
W@ Maine67–56
Lvs UMBC60–84
L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena54–64
Wvs Marist58–57
Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
W@ Niagara73–66
L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass Lowell

Merrimack

UMass Lowell has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UMass Lowell

Merrimack