Hofstra Pride at Princeton Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ETJadwin Gymnasium · at Princeton

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hofstra and Princeton
HOF	This season	PRIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRIN 71–67 · win probability PRIN 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

HOF 5, PRIN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PRINBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOF 12%, PRIN 100%. Transfers in: HOF 4, PRIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

PRINBig

HOF offense vs PRIN defense

Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings

HOFBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3; PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0

HOFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOF 34.7%, PRIN 27.2%. Defensive: HOF 69.0%, PRIN 71.5%

HOFSmall

PRIN offense vs HOF defense

Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings

HOFSmall

Three-pointers

HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%; PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%. Threes are 42.9% and 44.5% of their shots

HOFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOF 16.1%, PRIN 17.1%. Forced: HOF 15.0%, PRIN 14.2%

PRINSmall

Home court

PRIN at home. This season: PRIN 0-0 at home, HOF 0-0 away

PRINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOF 31.6, PRIN 34.6. Allowed: HOF 35.1, PRIN 34.0

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: HOF plays 65.9 a game (319th fastest), PRIN 65.0 (344th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

HOF has played the 142nd-hardest schedule, PRIN the 137th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PRIN -3.3	—
Total	—	138.1	—
Projected score	—	HOF 67.4 · PRIN 70.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRIN -1.9	—
1H total	64.7	—
1H projected score	HOF 31.4 · PRIN 33.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOF WWLWL	21-12	64%	11-6	—
PRIN LLWWL	16-12	57%	7-4	—

Venue/role: HOF away; PRIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOF UOOOO	18-15	55%	22-11
PRIN OOUOU	13-15	46%	8-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
PRIN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hofstra

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ ASU	No recent meeting
Nov 13	vs IONA	L73–81LO
Nov 17	vs MUR	No recent meeting

Princeton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ SIE	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs STBK	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ URI	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HOF 2–1 PRINHOF leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · HOF 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2023-24	PRIN 74 @ HOF 67	HOF -1.5	PRIN W
Nov 7, 2022-23	HOF 83 @ PRIN 77	PRIN -1.5	HOF W
Dec 1, 2021-22	PRIN 77 @ HOF 81	HOF -3.5	HOF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hofstra

33 games played

Straight up

22-11

67% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1167%

L L W L W W W L W W W W W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

O O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O O O O U U U U U U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsMRMK	W 78-58	-5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	@PENN	W 77-60	-1.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 3	@COLU	L 70-72	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 7	@PITT	W 80-73	+8.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@SYR	W 70-69	+9.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsQUIN	W 74-66	-7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 29	vsCAM	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 158
Jan 3	@DREX	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	@TOW	W 78-67	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	vsMONM	W 67-64	-7.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 15	@STBK	L 71-76	-6.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsELON	L 85-89	-5.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 174
Jan 22	@NCAT	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	@W&M	L 82-89	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	vsCOFC	L 64-66	-2.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@MONM	W 73-57	-1.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsNE	W 80-63	-8.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	vsTOW	W 71-49	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	@COFC	W 66-62	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 14	@UNCW	L 66-70	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsHAMP	W 79-43	-11.5	W +24.5	133.5	U 122
Feb 21	@NE	W 82-68	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsSTBK	W 67-58	-11.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsDREX	W 62-51	-8.5	W +2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsW&M	W 92-61	-2.5	W +28.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 9	vsTOW	W 68-65	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Mar 10	vsMONM	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsALA	L 70-90	+11.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+14.5

PENN

W 77-60

+15.5

COLU

L 70-72

+1.5

PITT

W 80-73

+15.5

SYR

W 70-69

+10.5

QUIN

W 74-66

+0.5

CAM

W 86-72

+7.5

DREX

W 70-67

−1.5

TOW

W 78-67

+12.5

MONM

W 67-64

−4.5

STBK

L 71-76

−11.5

ELON

L 85-89

−9.5

NCAT

L 78-79

−10.5

W&M

L 82-89

−3.5

COFC

L 64-66

−4.5

MONM

W 73-57

+14.5

W 80-63

+8.5

TOW

W 71-49

+17.5

COFC

W 66-62

+5.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

+24.5

W 82-68

+7.5

STBK

W 67-58

−2.5

DREX

W 62-51

+2.5

W&M

W 92-61

+28.5

TOW

W 68-65

−1.5

MONM

W 75-69

+1.5

ALA

L 70-90

−8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+0.5

PENN

W 77-60

−12.5

COLU

L 70-72

−2.5

PITT

W 80-73

+18.5

SYR

W 70-69

−0.5

QUIN

W 74-66

−7.5

CAM

W 86-72

+8.5

DREX

W 70-67

+5.5

TOW

W 78-67

+10.5

MONM

W 67-64

−8.5

STBK

L 71-76

+10.5

ELON

L 85-89

+24.5

NCAT

L 78-79

+10.5

W&M

L 82-89

+13.5

COFC

L 64-66

−18.5

MONM

W 73-57

−10.5

W 80-63

−10.5

TOW

W 71-49

−17.5

COFC

W 66-62

−18.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

−11.5

W 82-68

+5.5

STBK

W 67-58

−15.5

DREX

W 62-51

−20.5

W&M

W 92-61

+0.5

TOW

W 68-65

+0.5

MONM

W 75-69

+10.5

ALA

L 70-90

+1.5

over 18under 15avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Princeton

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1257%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 20	@BRWN	L 71-80	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	vsHARV	L 56-58	+3.5	W +1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsDART	W 82-61	-1.5	W +19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	@YALE	L 53-78	+14.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

BRWN

L 71-80

−6.5

HARV

L 56-58

+1.5

DART

W 82-61

+19.5

YALE

L 53-78

−10.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

BRWN

L 71-80

+21.5

HARV

L 56-58

−16.5

DART

W 82-61

+0.5

YALE

L 53-78

−6.5

over 13under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton has the better starters

Position by position: Hofstra 0, Princeton 3, even 2

HofstraBetterPrinceton

G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46

PRINBig

G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85

G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47

PRINSmall

G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64

F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17

Even

G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17

PRINBig

G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69

F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62

Even

F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

HofstraBetterPrinceton

HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7

PRINBig

PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5

HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9

HOFSmall

PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

PRINSmall

Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players

PRINBig

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-4.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOF betterPRIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hofstra

Guards

J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew

Forwards

J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew

Princeton

Guards

J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min

Forwards

M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min

Centers

W. HiggsNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOF74.4 #184

PRIN67.5 #324

Points per possession

HOF1.13 #86

PRIN1.04 #268

Pace (possessions)

HOF65.9 #319

PRIN65.0 #344

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOF51.4 #178

PRIN49.6 #260

3-point %

HOF37.1 #26

PRIN33.9 #177

3-point attempt rate

HOF42.9 #119

PRIN44.5 #78

Free throw rate

HOF31.6 #264

PRIN34.6 #192

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOF16.1 #148

PRIN17.1 #216

Offensive rebound rate

HOF34.7 #54

PRIN27.2 #287

Assists per game

HOF12.3 #263

PRIN12.5 #254

Defense

Points allowed

HOF68.2 #36

PRIN72.4 #114

Points allowed per possession

HOF1.04 #69

PRIN1.11 #242

Opponent effective FG%

HOF46.3 #14

PRIN52.0 #209

Opponent 3-point %

HOF32.3 #78

PRIN31.1 #36

Turnovers forced

HOF15.0 #292

PRIN14.2 #328

Defensive rebound rate

HOF69.0 #201

PRIN71.5 #82

Steals per game

HOF4.8 #343

PRIN4.6 #349

Blocks per game

HOF3.5 #135

PRIN2.1 #341

HOF		PRIN
Scoring
74.4 #184	Points per game	67.5 #324
1.13 #86	Points per possession	1.04 #268
65.9 #319	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #344
Shooting
51.4 #178	Effective FG%	49.6 #260
37.1 #26	3-point %	33.9 #177
42.9 #119	3-point attempt rate	44.5 #78
31.6 #264	Free throw rate	34.6 #192
Possessions
16.1 #148	Turnover rate	17.1 #216
34.7 #54	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #287
12.3 #263	Assists per game	12.5 #254
Defense
68.2 #36	Points allowed	72.4 #114
1.04 #69	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #242
46.3 #14	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #209
32.3 #78	Opponent 3-point %	31.1 #36
15.0 #292	Turnovers forced	14.2 #328
69.0 #201	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #82
4.8 #343	Steals per game	4.6 #349
3.5 #135	Blocks per game	2.1 #341

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama70–90
Wvs Monmouth75–69
Wvs Towson68–65
Wvs William & Mary92–61
Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Yale53–78
Wvs Dartmouth82–61
Lvs Harvard56–58
L@ Brown71–80
Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra Pride at Princeton Tigers

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Hofstra

Princeton

Princeton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hofstra

Princeton