Princeton Tigers at Siena Saints: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ETMVP Arena · at Siena

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Princeton and Siena
PRIN	This season	SIE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRIN 71–68 · win probability PRIN 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

PRIN 3, SIE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PRINBig

SIE offense vs PRIN defense

Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PRIN has played the 137th-hardest schedule, SIE the 320th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SIEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRIN 17.1%, SIE 15.8%. Forced: PRIN 14.2%, SIE 17.0%

PRINBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRIN 100%, SIE 28%. Transfers in: PRIN 0, SIE 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

SIESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0; SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5

PRINSmall

Three-pointers

PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%; SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 44.5% and 32.2% of their shots

SIESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRIN 27.2%, SIE 31.8%. Defensive: PRIN 71.5%, SIE 70.5%

SIESmall

Home court

SIE at home. This season: SIE 0-0 at home, PRIN 0-0 away

SIESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRIN 34.6, SIE 33.4. Allowed: PRIN 34.0, SIE 27.5

Even

PRIN offense vs SIE defense

Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: PRIN plays 65.0 a game (344th fastest), SIE 64.4 (354th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PRIN -2.5	—
Total	—	138.7	—
Projected score	—	PRIN 70.6 · SIE 68.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRIN -1.6	—
1H total	65.0	—
1H projected score	PRIN 33.3 · SIE 31.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRIN LLWWL	16-12	57%	6-7	—
SIE WWWWW	21-14	60%	7-6	—

Venue/role: PRIN away; SIE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN OOUOU	13-15	46%	8-20
SIE UUUUU	11-24	31%	23-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRIN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SIE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Princeton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs STBK	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ URI	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs MONM	L58–63WU

Siena

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ DAY	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs BRWN	W62–46WU
Nov 18	@ SJU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1257%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 20	@BRWN	L 71-80	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	vsHARV	L 56-58	+3.5	W +1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsDART	W 82-61	-1.5	W +19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	@YALE	L 53-78	+14.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

BRWN

L 71-80

−6.5

HARV

L 56-58

+1.5

DART

W 82-61

+19.5

YALE

L 53-78

−10.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

BRWN

L 71-80

+21.5

HARV

L 56-58

−16.5

DART

W 82-61

+0.5

YALE

L 53-78

−6.5

over 13under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Siena

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W L L W W W W W W W L L L W L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W W W L L L W W L W W L W L W L W L W W W L W L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U O U U O U U U O U O U U O U U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 24	@HC	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 28	vsLONG	W 70-63	-5.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AMER	W 59-55	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsME	W 64-60	-9.5	L −5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 5	vsNIA	W 83-54	-12.5	W +16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	vsCAN	W 74-52	-17.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 17	@UVM	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 22	@IU	L 60-81	+21.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 2	@IONA	L 72-75	-1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Jan 4	@RID	W 74-65	-8.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	vsMRMK	L 59-63	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@MSM	W 67-50	-2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 14	vsSHU	L 80-86	-8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 166
Jan 17	@MAN	W 74-59	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	vsFAIR	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsMRST	W 69-50	-1.5	W +17.5	133.5	U 119
Jan 30	@NIA	W 82-79	-9.5	L −6.5	128.5	O 161
Feb 1	@CAN	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	vsIONA	W 79-72	-8.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 7	@SPU	L 65-70	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsQUIN	L 62-74	-3.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 136
Feb 15	@MRST	W 67-63	+2.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 130
Feb 20	@MRMK	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsSPU	W 72-63	-5.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 27	@FAIR	L 58-72	-1.5	L −15.5	142.5	U 130
Mar 1	vsRID	W 76-61	-14.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsMSM	W 63-58	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 121
Mar 8	vsFAIR	W 76-61	-1.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 10	vsMRMK	W 64-54	+2.5	W +12.5	128.5	U 118
Mar 19	vsDUKE	L 65-71	+28.5	W +22.5	137.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

W 73-69

−5.5

LONG

W 70-63

+1.5

AMER

W 59-55

+1.5

W 64-60

−5.5

NIA

W 83-54

+16.5

CAN

W 74-52

+4.5

UVM

L 69-83

−11.5

L 60-81

+0.5

IONA

L 72-75

−4.5

RID

W 74-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−9.5

MSM

W 67-50

+14.5

SHU

L 80-86

−14.5

MAN

W 74-59

+8.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+1.5

MRST

W 69-50

+17.5

NIA

W 82-79

−6.5

CAN

W 78-63

+6.5

IONA

W 79-72

−1.5

SPU

L 65-70

−6.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−15.5

MRST

W 67-63

+6.5

MRMK

L 72-79

−4.5

SPU

W 72-63

+3.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−15.5

RID

W 76-61

+0.5

MSM

W 63-58

+2.5

FAIR

W 76-61

+13.5

MRMK

W 64-54

+12.5

DUKE

L 65-71

+22.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

W 73-69

+4.5

LONG

W 70-63

−12.5

AMER

W 59-55

−23.5

W 64-60

−3.5

NIA

W 83-54

+7.5

CAN

W 74-52

−5.5

UVM

L 69-83

+17.5

L 60-81

−4.5

IONA

L 72-75

−2.5

RID

W 74-65

+3.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−10.5

MSM

W 67-50

−22.5

SHU

L 80-86

+26.5

MAN

W 74-59

−11.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+19.5

MRST

W 69-50

−14.5

NIA

W 82-79

+32.5

CAN

W 78-63

+5.5

IONA

W 79-72

+10.5

SPU

L 65-70

−0.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−8.5

MRST

W 67-63

−3.5

MRMK

L 72-79

+17.5

SPU

W 72-63

−0.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−12.5

RID

W 76-61

−0.5

MSM

W 63-58

−14.5

FAIR

W 76-61

−1.5

MRMK

W 64-54

−10.5

DUKE

L 65-71

−1.5

over 11under 24avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton has the better starters

Position by position: Princeton 3, Siena 0, even 2

PrincetonBetterSiena

G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85

PRINBig

G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30

G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64

PRINBig

G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

PRINSmall

G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69

No call

G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

No call

G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

PrincetonBetterSiena

PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5

Even

SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7

PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5

PRINBig

SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6

Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players

PRINBig

Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-4.6 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestPRIN betterSIE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Princeton

Guards

J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min

Forwards

M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min

Centers

W. HiggsNew

Siena

Guards

T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRIN67.5 #324

SIE70.4 #276

Points per possession

PRIN1.04 #268

SIE1.09 #154

Pace (possessions)

PRIN65.0 #344

SIE64.4 #354

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRIN49.6 #260

SIE50.4 #222

3-point %

PRIN33.9 #177

SIE30.6 #330

3-point attempt rate

PRIN44.5 #78

SIE32.2 #327

Free throw rate

PRIN34.6 #192

SIE33.4 #226

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRIN17.1 #216

SIE15.8 #126

Offensive rebound rate

PRIN27.2 #287

SIE31.8 #133

Assists per game

PRIN12.5 #254

SIE13.5 #182

Defense

Points allowed

PRIN72.4 #114

SIE65.8 #12

Points allowed per possession

PRIN1.11 #242

SIE1.02 #44

Opponent effective FG%

PRIN52.0 #209

SIE48.5 #48

Opponent 3-point %

PRIN31.1 #36

SIE32.4 #82

Turnovers forced

PRIN14.2 #328

SIE17.0 #154

Defensive rebound rate

PRIN71.5 #82

SIE70.5 #133

Steals per game

PRIN4.6 #349

SIE5.8 #262

Blocks per game

PRIN2.1 #341

SIE3.1 #205

PRIN		SIE
Scoring
67.5 #324	Points per game	70.4 #276
1.04 #268	Points per possession	1.09 #154
65.0 #344	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #354
Shooting
49.6 #260	Effective FG%	50.4 #222
33.9 #177	3-point %	30.6 #330
44.5 #78	3-point attempt rate	32.2 #327
34.6 #192	Free throw rate	33.4 #226
Possessions
17.1 #216	Turnover rate	15.8 #126
27.2 #287	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #133
12.5 #254	Assists per game	13.5 #182
Defense
72.4 #114	Points allowed	65.8 #12
1.11 #242	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #44
52.0 #209	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #48
31.1 #36	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #82
14.2 #328	Turnovers forced	17.0 #154
71.5 #82	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #133
4.6 #349	Steals per game	5.8 #262
2.1 #341	Blocks per game	3.1 #205

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Yale53–78
Wvs Dartmouth82–61
Lvs Harvard56–58
L@ Brown71–80
Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke65–71
Wvs Merrimack64–54
Wvs Fairfield76–61
Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

Princeton Tigers at Siena Saints

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

Siena

Princeton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Princeton

Siena