Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Missouri and South Carolina
SEMO	This season	SC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SC 82–63 · win probability SC 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

SEMO 2, SC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SEMO has played the 351st-hardest schedule, SC the 54th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SCBig

SEMO offense vs SC defense

Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings

SCBig

SC offense vs SEMO defense

Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings

SEMOBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SEMO 29.6%, SC 27.2%. Defensive: SEMO 71.8%, SC 67.9%

SCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SEMO 38.8, SC 36.7. Allowed: SEMO 48.0, SC 34.0

SEMOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8; SC 50.3 and allows 51.6

SCSmall

Home court

SC at home. This season: SC 0-0 at home, SEMO 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SEMO plays 70.2 a game (109th fastest), SC 68.8 (195th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%; SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 36.0% and 44.4% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SEMO 16.8%, SC 14.4%. Forced: SEMO 18.1%, SC 14.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SEMO 26%, SC 13%. Transfers in: SEMO 1, SC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SC -19.8	—
Total	—	144.9	—
Projected score	—	SEMO 62.5 · SC 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SC -11.7	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	SEMO 28.1 · SC 39.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEMO WLWLL	14-16	47%	8-7	—
SC LLLWL	14-18	44%	6-13	—

Venue/role: SEMO away; SC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEMO UUOUU	13-17	43%	17-13
SC UUUUO	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEMO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
SC	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ MTSU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ STMN	L72–84LO
Nov 24	vs PFW	L80–89WO

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs SPU	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs GWEB	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs ELON	W70–43WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Missouri

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O O O U U O U O O U U O U O U U U O U O O U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151
Nov 29	vsLIP	L 77-88	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 6	@UTC	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 144
Dec 18	@TNTC	L 74-85	-2.5	L −13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	@TNST	W 91-82	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsEIU	W 68-59	-12.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsWIU	W 73-50	-13.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	@USI	W 84-76	-7.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@MORE	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 140
Jan 15	vsLIN	L 76-88	-6.5	L −18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsSIUE	L 55-68	-9.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 20	vsUTM	W 66-50	-2.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Jan 22	vsLR	W 70-65	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@WIU	W 78-74	-10.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	@EIU	W 77-59	-4.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	vsMORE	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 7	vsUSI	W 90-65	-11.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	@SIUE	L 56-74	-1.5	L −19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	@LIN	W 73-61	+1.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 17	@UTM	W 56-53	+2.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 109
Feb 21	@LR	W 70-65	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsTNST	L 71-79	-2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsTNTC	W 89-73	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 162
Mar 5	vsLIN	W 68-66	-3.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 6	vsMORE	L 61-66	-3.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

LIP

L 77-88

−14.5

UTC

W 74-70

+7.5

TNTC

L 74-85

−13.5

TNST

W 91-82

+7.5

EIU

W 68-59

−3.5

WIU

W 73-50

+9.5

USI

W 84-76

+0.5

L 69-71

−7.5

LIN

L 76-88

−18.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−22.5

UTM

W 66-50

+13.5

W 70-65

−0.5

WIU

W 78-74

−6.5

EIU

W 77-59

+13.5

W 82-70

+4.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−19.5

LIN

W 73-61

+13.5

UTM

W 56-53

+5.5

W 70-65

+3.5

TNST

L 71-79

−10.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+8.5

LIN

W 68-66

−1.5

L 61-66

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

LIP

L 77-88

+11.5

UTC

W 74-70

−5.5

TNTC

L 74-85

+3.5

TNST

W 91-82

+21.5

EIU

W 68-59

−19.5

WIU

W 73-50

−24.5

USI

W 84-76

+13.5

L 69-71

−4.5

LIN

L 76-88

+9.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−16.5

UTM

W 66-50

−24.5

W 70-65

−10.5

WIU

W 78-74

+9.5

EIU

W 77-59

−2.5

W 82-70

+7.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−7.5

LIN

W 73-61

−20.5

UTM

W 56-53

−29.5

W 70-65

−8.5

TNST

L 71-79

−1.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+20.5

LIN

W 68-66

−14.5

L 61-66

−12.5

over 13under 17avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W W W L L W L W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W L L L W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U O U O O U O O U U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 13	vsCIT	W 71-55	-22.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	@CLEM	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 22	vsSCST	W 95-70	-31.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	vsUALB	W 96-67	-19.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsVAN	L 71-83	+9.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 6	@LSU	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsUGA	L 70-75	+4.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	@ARK	L 74-108	+12.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 182
Jan 17	@AUB	L 67-71	+13.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsOU	W 85-76	+2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@TA&M	L 69-92	+10.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsFLA	L 48-95	+13.5	L −33.5	151.5	U 143
Jan 31	vsLSU	L 87-92	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 3	@TEX	L 75-84	+13.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMIZ	L 59-78	+3.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@ALA	L 75-89	+17.5	W +3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 17	@FLA	L 62-76	+23.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	vsMSST	W 97-89	+1.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 24	vsUK	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UGA	L 68-87	+12.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsTENN	L 59-78	+10.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	@MISS	W 64-61	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsOU	L 74-86	+7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

CIT

W 71-55

−6.5

CLEM

L 61-68

+5.5

SCST

W 95-70

−6.5

UALB

W 96-67

+9.5

VAN

L 71-83

−2.5

LSU

W 78-68

+17.5

UGA

L 70-75

−0.5

ARK

L 74-108

−21.5

AUB

L 67-71

+9.5

W 85-76

+11.5

TA&M

L 69-92

−12.5

FLA

L 48-95

−33.5

LSU

L 87-92

−2.5

TEX

L 75-84

+4.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−15.5

ALA

L 75-89

+3.5

FLA

L 62-76

+9.5

MSST

W 97-89

+9.5

L 63-72

−1.5

UGA

L 68-87

−6.5

TENN

L 59-78

−8.5

MISS

W 64-61

+10.5

L 74-86

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

CIT

W 71-55

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-68

−13.5

SCST

W 95-70

+15.5

UALB

W 96-67

+14.5

VAN

L 71-83

−1.5

LSU

W 78-68

+0.5

UGA

L 70-75

−18.5

ARK

L 74-108

+26.5

AUB

L 67-71

−14.5

W 85-76

+10.5

TA&M

L 69-92

+5.5

FLA

L 48-95

−8.5

LSU

L 87-92

+31.5

TEX

L 75-84

+9.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−10.5

ALA

L 75-89

−6.5

FLA

L 62-76

−18.5

MSST

W 97-89

+34.5

L 63-72

−16.5

UGA

L 68-87

−3.5

TENN

L 59-78

−4.5

MISS

W 64-61

−22.5

L 74-86

+10.5

over 16under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: SE Missouri 1, South Carolina 2, even 2

SE MissouriBetterSouth Carolina

G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69

Even

G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33

SCBig

G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81

G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11

SCBig

F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46

F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63

SEMOSmall

F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36

SE MissouriBetterSouth Carolina

SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0

SCBig

SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6

SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1

SCBig

SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

SCBig

Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players

SEMOSmall

Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSEMO betterSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Missouri

Guards

M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew

Forwards

D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew

South Carolina

Guards

S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew

Forwards

J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SEMO73.2 #217

SC74.9 #165

Points per possession

SEMO1.04 #267

SC1.09 #161

Pace (possessions)

SEMO70.2 #109

SC68.8 #195

Shooting

Effective FG%

SEMO49.8 #244

SC50.3 #226

3-point %

SEMO30.9 #324

SC31.1 #317

3-point attempt rate

SEMO36.0 #250

SC44.4 #80

Free throw rate

SEMO38.8 #84

SC36.7 #137

Possessions

Turnover rate

SEMO16.8 #192

SC14.4 #39

Offensive rebound rate

SEMO29.6 #218

SC27.2 #289

Assists per game

SEMO11.7 #306

SC13.3 #190

Defense

Points allowed

SEMO72.3 #112

SC76.5 #228

Points allowed per possession

SEMO1.03 #58

SC1.11 #252

Opponent effective FG%

SEMO48.8 #57

SC51.6 #188

Opponent 3-point %

SEMO33.1 #130

SC31.8 #56

Turnovers forced

SEMO18.1 #91

SC14.6 #314

Defensive rebound rate

SEMO71.8 #76

SC67.9 #263

Steals per game

SEMO6.4 #190

SC5.5 #295

Blocks per game

SEMO3.6 #121

SC2.4 #317

SEMO		SC
Scoring
73.2 #217	Points per game	74.9 #165
1.04 #267	Points per possession	1.09 #161
70.2 #109	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #195
Shooting
49.8 #244	Effective FG%	50.3 #226
30.9 #324	3-point %	31.1 #317
36.0 #250	3-point attempt rate	44.4 #80
38.8 #84	Free throw rate	36.7 #137
Possessions
16.8 #192	Turnover rate	14.4 #39
29.6 #218	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #289
11.7 #306	Assists per game	13.3 #190
Defense
72.3 #112	Points allowed	76.5 #228
1.03 #58	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #252
48.8 #57	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #188
33.1 #130	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #56
18.1 #91	Turnovers forced	14.6 #314
71.8 #76	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #263
6.4 #190	Steals per game	5.5 #295
3.6 #121	Blocks per game	2.4 #317

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Morehead St61–66
Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
Lvs Tennessee St71–79
W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma74–86
W@ Ole Miss64–61
Lvs Tennessee59–78
L@ Georgia68–87
Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at South Carolina Gamecocks

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Missouri

South Carolina

South Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Missouri

South Carolina