Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Gardner-Webb and South Carolina
GWEB	This season	SC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SC 87–61 · win probability SC 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

GWEB 0, SC 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCBig

GWEB offense vs SC defense

Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings

SCBig

SC offense vs GWEB defense

Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings

SCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0; SC 50.3 and allows 51.6

SCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GWEB 19.8%, SC 14.4%. Forced: GWEB 15.3%, SC 14.6%

SCBig

Three-pointers

GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%; SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 39.8% and 44.4% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

GWEB has played the 154th-hardest schedule, SC the 54th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GWEB 30.3, SC 36.7. Allowed: GWEB 35.3, SC 34.0

SCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GWEB 23.2%, SC 27.2%. Defensive: GWEB 63.4%, SC 67.9%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: GWEB plays 70.8 a game (84th fastest), SC 68.8 (195th). Faster games mean more points

SCSmall

Home court

SC at home. This season: SC 0-0 at home, GWEB 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GWEB 35%, SC 13%. Transfers in: GWEB 3, SC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SC -26.4	—
Total	—	148.1	—
Projected score	—	GWEB 60.9 · SC 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SC -15.6	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	GWEB 26.9 · SC 42.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GWEB WWWWW	17-13	57%	8-8	—
SC LLLWL	14-18	44%	6-13	—

Venue/role: GWEB away; SC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GWEB UOUUU	15-15	50%	2-28
SC UUUUO	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GWEB	1-9 10%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%
SC	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Gardner-Webb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs UNCG	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ VMI	L61–64LU
Nov 24	@ BGSU	No recent meeting

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs ELON	W70–43WU
Nov 25	vs USC	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs ASU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gardner-Webb

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L W L L L L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O O U U U O U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	@UNCW	L 62-88	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	@QUC	L 74-107	+14.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 6	vsGASO	L 84-88	+10.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 15	vsWOF	L 57-83	+10.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 21	@TENN	L 52-94	+42.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsCHSO	L 79-89	+12.5	W +2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	@WIN	L 77-88	+23.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	@HPU	L 49-104	+26.5	L −28.5	162.5	U 153
Jan 14	vsRAD	L 80-89	+13.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsPRES	L 55-92	+8.5	L −28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	@LONG	L 56-91	+16.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsUPST	W 67-65	+9.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	@UNCA	L 50-69	+17.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsLONG	L 66-86	+12.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@PRES	L 62-68	+17.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	vsWIN	L 85-103	+20.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 14	vsHPU	L 87-112	+25.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 199
Feb 17	@CHSO	L 66-75	+16.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 19	@RAD	L 70-82	+18.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 26	vsUNCA	L 71-77	+12.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	@UPST	L 61-71	+11.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsUPST	W 65-64	+10.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 6	vsHPU	L 59-81	+27.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

UNCW

L 62-88

−7.5

QUC

L 74-107

−18.5

GASO

L 84-88

+6.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

+0.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+2.5

WIN

L 77-88

+12.5

HPU

L 49-104

−28.5

RAD

L 80-89

+4.5

PRES

L 55-92

−28.5

LONG

L 56-91

−18.5

UPST

W 67-65

+11.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−1.5

LONG

L 66-86

−7.5

PRES

L 62-68

+11.5

WIN

L 85-103

+2.5

HPU

L 87-112

+0.5

CHSO

L 66-75

+7.5

RAD

L 70-82

+6.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+6.5

UPST

L 61-71

+1.5

UPST

W 65-64

+11.5

HPU

L 59-81

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

UNCW

L 62-88

+2.5

QUC

L 74-107

+19.5

GASO

L 84-88

+9.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

−6.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+4.5

WIN

L 77-88

+0.5

HPU

L 49-104

−9.5

RAD

L 80-89

+3.5

PRES

L 55-92

+1.5

LONG

L 56-91

−8.5

UPST

W 67-65

−21.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−30.5

LONG

L 66-86

+4.5

PRES

L 62-68

−15.5

WIN

L 85-103

+31.5

HPU

L 87-112

+37.5

CHSO

L 66-75

−20.5

RAD

L 70-82

−10.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+2.5

UPST

L 61-71

−14.5

UPST

W 65-64

−14.5

HPU

L 59-81

−15.5

over 15under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W W W L L W L W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W L L L W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U O U O O U O O U U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 13	vsCIT	W 71-55	-22.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	@CLEM	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 22	vsSCST	W 95-70	-31.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	vsUALB	W 96-67	-19.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsVAN	L 71-83	+9.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 6	@LSU	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsUGA	L 70-75	+4.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	@ARK	L 74-108	+12.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 182
Jan 17	@AUB	L 67-71	+13.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsOU	W 85-76	+2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@TA&M	L 69-92	+10.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsFLA	L 48-95	+13.5	L −33.5	151.5	U 143
Jan 31	vsLSU	L 87-92	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 3	@TEX	L 75-84	+13.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMIZ	L 59-78	+3.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@ALA	L 75-89	+17.5	W +3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 17	@FLA	L 62-76	+23.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	vsMSST	W 97-89	+1.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 24	vsUK	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UGA	L 68-87	+12.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsTENN	L 59-78	+10.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	@MISS	W 64-61	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsOU	L 74-86	+7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

CIT

W 71-55

−6.5

CLEM

L 61-68

+5.5

SCST

W 95-70

−6.5

UALB

W 96-67

+9.5

VAN

L 71-83

−2.5

LSU

W 78-68

+17.5

UGA

L 70-75

−0.5

ARK

L 74-108

−21.5

AUB

L 67-71

+9.5

W 85-76

+11.5

TA&M

L 69-92

−12.5

FLA

L 48-95

−33.5

LSU

L 87-92

−2.5

TEX

L 75-84

+4.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−15.5

ALA

L 75-89

+3.5

FLA

L 62-76

+9.5

MSST

W 97-89

+9.5

L 63-72

−1.5

UGA

L 68-87

−6.5

TENN

L 59-78

−8.5

MISS

W 64-61

+10.5

L 74-86

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

CIT

W 71-55

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-68

−13.5

SCST

W 95-70

+15.5

UALB

W 96-67

+14.5

VAN

L 71-83

−1.5

LSU

W 78-68

+0.5

UGA

L 70-75

−18.5

ARK

L 74-108

+26.5

AUB

L 67-71

−14.5

W 85-76

+10.5

TA&M

L 69-92

+5.5

FLA

L 48-95

−8.5

LSU

L 87-92

+31.5

TEX

L 75-84

+9.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−10.5

ALA

L 75-89

−6.5

FLA

L 62-76

−18.5

MSST

W 97-89

+34.5

L 63-72

−16.5

UGA

L 68-87

−3.5

TENN

L 59-78

−4.5

MISS

W 64-61

−22.5

L 74-86

+10.5

over 16under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Gardner-Webb 0, South Carolina 2, even 3

Gardner-WebbBetterSouth Carolina

G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62

Even

G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

SCBig

G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81

G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32

Even

F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46

F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14

SCSmall

F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36

Gardner-WebbBetterSouth Carolina

GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4

SCBig

SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6

GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2

SCBig

SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

SCBig

Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestGWEB betterSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Gardner-Webb

Guards

J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew

Forwards

M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew

Centers

S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew

South Carolina

Guards

S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew

Forwards

J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GWEB66.2 #343

SC74.9 #165

Points per possession

GWEB0.94 #360

SC1.09 #161

Pace (possessions)

GWEB70.8 #84

SC68.8 #195

Shooting

Effective FG%

GWEB47.8 #317

SC50.3 #226

3-point %

GWEB31.0 #320

SC31.1 #317

3-point attempt rate

GWEB39.8 #174

SC44.4 #80

Free throw rate

GWEB30.3 #302

SC36.7 #137

Possessions

Turnover rate

GWEB19.8 #347

SC14.4 #39

Offensive rebound rate

GWEB23.2 #350

SC27.2 #289

Assists per game

GWEB9.7 #362

SC13.3 #190

Defense

Points allowed

GWEB86.7 #362

SC76.5 #228

Points allowed per possession

GWEB1.22 #361

SC1.11 #252

Opponent effective FG%

GWEB57.0 #356

SC51.6 #188

Opponent 3-point %

GWEB36.0 #300

SC31.8 #56

Turnovers forced

GWEB15.3 #265

SC14.6 #314

Defensive rebound rate

GWEB63.4 #355

SC67.9 #263

Steals per game

GWEB6.1 #224

SC5.5 #295

Blocks per game

GWEB2.4 #309

SC2.4 #317

GWEB		SC
Scoring
66.2 #343	Points per game	74.9 #165
0.94 #360	Points per possession	1.09 #161
70.8 #84	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #195
Shooting
47.8 #317	Effective FG%	50.3 #226
31.0 #320	3-point %	31.1 #317
39.8 #174	3-point attempt rate	44.4 #80
30.3 #302	Free throw rate	36.7 #137
Possessions
19.8 #347	Turnover rate	14.4 #39
23.2 #350	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #289
9.7 #362	Assists per game	13.3 #190
Defense
86.7 #362	Points allowed	76.5 #228
1.22 #361	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #252
57.0 #356	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #188
36.0 #300	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #56
15.3 #265	Turnovers forced	14.6 #314
63.4 #355	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #263
6.1 #224	Steals per game	5.5 #295
2.4 #309	Blocks per game	2.4 #317

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point59–81
Wvs SC Upstate65–64
L@ SC Upstate61–71
Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma74–86
W@ Ole Miss64–61
Lvs Tennessee59–78
L@ Georgia68–87
Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks

What could decide it: SC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Gardner-Webb

South Carolina

South Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Gardner-Webb

South Carolina