Coppin State Eagles at South Florida Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ETYuengling Center · at South Florida

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Coppin St and South Florida
COPP	This season	USF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USF 90–62 · win probability USF 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USF has more of the edges

COPP 1, USF 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USFBig

USF offense vs COPP defense

Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 324th, on the model’s ratings

USFBig

COPP offense vs USF defense

Offense 351st of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

COPP has played the 313th-hardest schedule, USF the 89th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USFBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: COPP 45.9 and allows 55.4; USF 50.6 and allows 48.8

USFBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COPP 22.3%, USF 15.1%. Forced: COPP 17.6%, USF 19.1%

USFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COPP 30.4%, USF 38.1%. Defensive: COPP 65.3%, USF 68.1%

USFSmall

Three-pointers

COPP hits 30.7% and allows 38.3%; USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 35.2% and 43.8% of their shots

COPPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COPP 68%, USF 14%. Transfers in: COPP 3, USF 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: COPP plays 69.3 a game (159th fastest), USF 74.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

USFSmall

Home court

USF at home. This season: USF 0-0 at home, COPP 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: COPP 38.5, USF 40.4. Allowed: COPP 42.9, USF 39.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USF -27.9	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	COPP 61.8 · USF 89.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USF -16.5	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	COPP 27.2 · USF 43.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COPP WWLLW	13-17	43%	9-10	—
USF LWWWL	18-15	55%	9-5	—

Venue/role: COPP away; USF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COPP UOOOU	19-11	63%	6-24
USF OUUUO	15-18	45%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COPP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
USF	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Coppin St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ LAS	L59–87LO
Nov 21	@ GTWN	L67–97WO
Nov 24	@ VILL	No recent meeting

South Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs TNST	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ GMU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs STET	W74–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COPP 0–1 USFUSF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · COPP 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	COPP 50 @ USF 100	USF -34.5	USF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Coppin St

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O U U O O U O O U O O U O O U O O O O O U U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	@LIB	L 50-92	+30.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 9	@JOES	L 65-87	+22.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 14	@RAD	L 77-107	+20.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 19	@NAVY	L 55-88	+20.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 22	@GTWN	L 67-97	+33.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsUMBC	L 59-93	+10.5	L −23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 3	@DSU	W 53-51	+8.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNCCU	L 77-88	+6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	vsSCST	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	@UMES	L 67-70	+10.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 24	@NORF	L 76-103	+13.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsMORG	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 2	vsHOW	L 53-72	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsDSU	W 65-47	+1.5	W +19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 14	@NCCU	W 58-56	+10.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	@SCST	W 59-57	+4.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 21	vsUMES	W 71-65	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsNORF	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@HOW	L 70-90	+19.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@MORG	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

LIB

L 50-92

−11.5

JOES

L 65-87

+0.5

RAD

L 77-107

−9.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−12.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 59-93

−23.5

DSU

W 53-51

+10.5

NCCU

L 77-88

−4.5

SCST

L 72-74

−3.5

UMES

L 67-70

+7.5

NORF

L 76-103

−13.5

MORG

L 80-89

−5.5

HOW

L 53-72

−4.5

DSU

W 65-47

+19.5

NCCU

W 58-56

+12.5

SCST

W 59-57

+6.5

UMES

W 71-65

+9.5

NORF

L 69-75

−0.5

HOW

L 70-90

−0.5

MORG

L 66-70

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

LIB

L 50-92

−1.5

JOES

L 65-87

+5.5

RAD

L 77-107

+29.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−2.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+13.5

UMBC

L 59-93

+3.5

DSU

W 53-51

−35.5

NCCU

L 77-88

+21.5

SCST

L 72-74

+5.5

UMES

L 67-70

+3.5

NORF

L 76-103

+35.5

MORG

L 80-89

+13.5

HOW

L 53-72

−21.5

DSU

W 65-47

−20.5

NCCU

W 58-56

−29.5

SCST

W 59-57

−22.5

UMES

W 71-65

+7.5

NORF

L 69-75

+3.5

HOW

L 70-90

+19.5

MORG

L 66-70

−13.5

over 19under 11avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Florida

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

W L W W L L W L W W L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1555%

W L W W L L L L W L W W L L W L L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O U O O U O U U U O O O U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAMU	W 102-67	-25.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsGW	L 95-99	-1.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsCOPP	W 100-50	-34.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 16	@KENN	W 108-89	-7.5	W +11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 19	@OKST	L 95-103	+3.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 26	vsVCU	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsWKU	W 97-91	-7.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsCSU	L 68-83	-2.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 4	vsUSU	W 74-61	-2.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 135
Dec 10	vsCOFC	W 81-75	-13.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 156
Dec 17	@ALA	L 93-104	+14.5	W +3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsUMBC	W 94-69	-22.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 4	vsUAB	L 106-109	-8.5	L −11.5	163.5	O 215
Jan 7	@UNT	W 74-70	-4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 10	@TLSA	W 93-78	+1.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsECU	W 82-71	-18.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsWICH	L 85-86	-7.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 22	@UAB	W 82-69	-2.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 151
Jan 25	vsFAU	W 89-75	-5.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Jan 28	@TULN	W 97-83	-8.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 180
Jan 31	@TEM	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 157
Feb 4	vsUTSA	W 109-88	-23.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 197
Feb 8	vsTLSA	W 80-74	-4.5	W +1.5	170.5	U 154
Feb 11	@WICH	W 66-58	-2.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 15	@FAU	W 83-81	-4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 164
Feb 19	vsMEM	W 87-66	-9.5	W +11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 25	@RICE	W 75-56	-11.5	W +7.5	157.5	U 131
Mar 1	vsTULN	W 90-62	-15.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 5	@MEM	W 96-89	-7.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	vsCLT	W 83-60	-17.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsCLT	W 86-64	-15.5	W +6.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 15	vsWICH	W 70-55	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 19	vsLOU	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+9.5

L 95-99

−5.5

COPP

W 100-50

+15.5

KENN

W 108-89

+11.5

OKST

L 95-103

−4.5

VCU

L 66-78

−10.5

WKU

W 97-91

−1.5

CSU

L 68-83

−17.5

USU

W 74-61

+10.5

COFC

W 81-75

−7.5

ALA

L 93-104

+3.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

−11.5

UNT

W 74-70

−0.5

TLSA

W 93-78

+16.5

ECU

W 82-71

−7.5

WICH

L 85-86

−8.5

UAB

W 82-69

+10.5

FAU

W 89-75

+8.5

TULN

W 97-83

+5.5

TEM

L 78-79

−10.5

UTSA

W 109-88

−2.5

TLSA

W 80-74

+1.5

WICH

W 66-58

+5.5

FAU

W 83-81

−2.5

MEM

W 87-66

+11.5

RICE

W 75-56

+7.5

TULN

W 90-62

+12.5

MEM

W 96-89

−0.5

CLT

W 83-60

+5.5

CLT

W 86-64

+6.5

WICH

W 70-55

+8.5

LOU

L 79-83

−0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+15.5

L 95-99

+34.5

COPP

W 100-50

−17.5

KENN

W 108-89

+19.5

OKST

L 95-103

+20.5

VCU

L 66-78

−28.5

WKU

W 97-91

+20.5

CSU

L 68-83

−4.5

USU

W 74-61

−27.5

COFC

W 81-75

−4.5

ALA

L 93-104

+18.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

+51.5

UNT

W 74-70

−3.5

TLSA

W 93-78

+7.5

ECU

W 82-71

−5.5

WICH

L 85-86

+12.5

UAB

W 82-69

−17.5

FAU

W 89-75

−2.5

TULN

W 97-83

+21.5

TEM

L 78-79

+2.5

UTSA

W 109-88

+32.5

TLSA

W 80-74

−16.5

WICH

W 66-58

−36.5

FAU

W 83-81

−1.5

MEM

W 87-66

−10.5

RICE

W 75-56

−26.5

TULN

W 90-62

−3.5

MEM

W 96-89

+21.5

CLT

W 83-60

−13.5

CLT

W 86-64

−3.5

WICH

W 70-55

−26.5

LOU

L 79-83

+1.5

over 15under 18avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Coppin St 0, South Florida 4, even 1

Coppin StBetterSouth Florida

G H. Williams7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

USFBig

G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79

G C. Sparrow5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 40

USFSmall

G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72

G J. Piercy6.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 23

USFBig

G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80

F N. Lamizana6.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 18

USFBig

G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73

F T. Koenig5.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

Even

F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41

Coppin StBetterSouth Florida

COPP offense351st of 366 · -12.8

USFBig

USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1

COPP defense324th of 366 · -8.4

USFBig

USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

USFBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

USFSmall

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

Bench-6.3 · 5 players

USFBig

Bench-0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCOPP betterUSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Coppin St

Guards

H. Williams20 minC. Sparrow19 minJ. Piercy18 minB. Saunders16 minD. Lydner12 minJ. Brown5 min

Forwards

N. Lamizana19 minT. Koenig17 minT. Gapare16 min · TRE. TaylorNewL. LawalNewA. MyersNew

Centers

F. Aire9 min

South Florida

Guards

S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR

Forwards

R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew

Centers

T. Diawara3 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COPP64.3 #352

USF86.8 #6

Points per possession

COPP0.93 #362

USF1.17 #42

Pace (possessions)

COPP69.3 #159

USF74.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

COPP45.9 #350

USF50.6 #209

3-point %

COPP30.7 #326

USF32.5 #255

3-point attempt rate

COPP35.2 #273

USF43.8 #93

Free throw rate

COPP38.5 #90

USF40.4 #55

Possessions

Turnover rate

COPP22.3 #363

USF15.1 #73

Offensive rebound rate

COPP30.4 #183

USF38.1 #7

Assists per game

COPP11.4 #317

USF16.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

COPP81.0 #334

USF76.5 #230

Points allowed per possession

COPP1.17 #342

USF1.03 #54

Opponent effective FG%

COPP55.4 #339

USF48.8 #58

Opponent 3-point %

COPP38.3 #360

USF34.5 #218

Turnovers forced

COPP17.6 #118

USF19.1 #42

Defensive rebound rate

COPP65.3 #333

USF68.1 #252

Steals per game

COPP6.0 #233

USF9.0 #8

Blocks per game

COPP3.5 #143

USF4.0 #72

COPP		USF
Scoring
64.3 #352	Points per game	86.8 #6
0.93 #362	Points per possession	1.17 #42
69.3 #159	Pace (possessions)	74.4 #9
Shooting
45.9 #350	Effective FG%	50.6 #209
30.7 #326	3-point %	32.5 #255
35.2 #273	3-point attempt rate	43.8 #93
38.5 #90	Free throw rate	40.4 #55
Possessions
22.3 #363	Turnover rate	15.1 #73
30.4 #183	Offensive rebound rate	38.1 #7
11.4 #317	Assists per game	16.8 #28
Defense
81.0 #334	Points allowed	76.5 #230
1.17 #342	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #54
55.4 #339	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #58
38.3 #360	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #218
17.6 #118	Turnovers forced	19.1 #42
65.3 #333	Defensive rebound rate	68.1 #252
6.0 #233	Steals per game	9.0 #8
3.5 #143	Blocks per game	4.0 #72

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Coppin St

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Morgan St66–70
L@ Howard70–90
Lvs Norfolk St69–75
Wvs MD Eastern71–65
W@ SC State59–57

A week or more of rest.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisville79–83
Wvs Wichita St70–55
Wvs Charlotte86–64
Wvs Charlotte83–60
W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.

Coppin State Eagles at South Florida Bulls

What could decide it: USF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Coppin St

South Florida

South Florida has the better starters

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Matchup stats

Coppin St

South Florida