1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. NIU @ BELL
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Northern Illinois Huskies at Bellarmine Knights

Knights Hall · at Bellarmine
#334NIUN Illinois
@
#295BELLBellarmine
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIUThis seasonBELL
1-0Record0-0
0-1ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BELL 80–74 · win probability BELL 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BELL has more of the edges

NIU 1, BELL 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NIUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, BELL 22.4%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, BELL 65.8%
BELLBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4
BELLBig
Three-pointers
NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%. Threes are 45.0% and 41.2% of their shots
BELLSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, BELL 15.4%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, BELL 15.1%
BELLSmall
BELL offense vs NIU defense
Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, BELL the 229th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), BELL 66.7 (288th). Faster games mean more points
BELLSmall
Home court
BELL at home. This season: BELL 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away
BELLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, BELL 56%. Transfers in: NIU 6, BELL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
NIU offense vs BELL defense
Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, BELL 35.0. Allowed: NIU 38.3, BELL 34.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BELL -6.1—
Total—153.3—
Projected score—NIU 73.6 · BELL 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBELL -3.5—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreNIU 34.1 · BELL 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 1, Bellarmine 0, even 4
N IllinoisBetterBellarmine
G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27
Even
G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31
G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45
Even
G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35
G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52
NIUBig
F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9
Even
F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4
F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33
Even
F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
N IllinoisBetterBellarmine
NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6
Even
BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2
NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5
BELLSmall
BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
BELLSmall
Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player
NIUBig
Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players
Bench-3.5 · 3 players
BELLSmall
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNIU betterBELL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Illinois
Guards
M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew
Forwards
T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew
Bellarmine
Guards
K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew
Forwards
S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIUBELL
Scoring
66.3 #341Points per game78.9 #80
0.96 #354Points per possession1.18 #34
69.0 #181Pace (possessions)66.7 #288
Shooting
47.6 #324Effective FG%59.4 #3
30.9 #3233-point %38.1 #17
45.0 #663-point attempt rate41.2 #145
38.3 #95Free throw rate35.0 #178
Possessions
21.7 #360Turnover rate15.4 #100
30.3 #187Offensive rebound rate22.4 #354
11.6 #308Assists per game14.8 #98
Defense
78.9 #291Points allowed83.3 #350
1.15 #323Points allowed per possession1.25 #365
55.6 #342Opponent effective FG%59.4 #365
36.3 #315Opponent 3-point %40.4 #364
16.3 #199Turnovers forced15.1 #277
70.0 #161Defensive rebound rate65.8 #320
5.6 #288Steals per game5.8 #255
1.9 #352Blocks per game1.7 #356
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Akron55–94
  • Lvs Kent State76–102
  • Lvs Ball State43–79
  • L@ Toledo69–79
  • Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

Bellarmine

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas73–86
  • Wvs Jacksonville82–79
  • Wvs Austin Peay111–97
  • L@ North Alabama68–73
  • Lvs E Kentucky92–95

A week or more of rest.