1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. RICE @ SFA
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Rice Owls at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

William R. Johnson Coliseum · at SF Austin
#177RICERice
@
#193SFASF Austin
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RICEThis seasonSFA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SFA 74–69 · win probability SFA 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 142.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

RICE 1, SFA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
RICE has played the 116th-hardest schedule, SFA the 338th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SFABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RICE 17.9%, SFA 14.2%. Forced: RICE 15.7%, SFA 17.7%
SFABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RICE 48.5 and allows 51.0; SFA 51.7 and allows 47.7
SFABig
Three-pointers
RICE hits 34.3% and allows 34.0%; SFA hits 35.8% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 44.1% and 39.8% of their shots
RICESmall
SFA offense vs RICE defense
Offense 252nd of 366 against a defense 163rd, on the model’s ratings
SFASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RICE 35.3%, SFA 33.8%. Defensive: RICE 65.4%, SFA 70.5%
SFASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: RICE 33.9, SFA 30.1. Allowed: RICE 40.4, SFA 31.1
SFASmall
RICE offense vs SFA defense
Offense 210th of 366 against a defense 156th, on the model’s ratings
SFASmall
Home court
SFA at home. This season: SFA 0-0 at home, RICE 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RICE 44%, SFA 26%. Transfers in: RICE 3, SFA 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: RICE plays 67.9 a game (236th fastest), SFA 66.4 (298th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SFA -4.8—
Total—142.4—
Projected score—RICE 68.8 · SFA 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSFA -2.7—
1H total66.6—
1H projected scoreRICE 32 · SFA 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SF Austin has the better starters

Position by position: Rice 0, SF Austin 3, even 2
RiceBetterSF Austin
G C. Adkins TR13.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 50
Even
G M. Russell TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 2 ast Score 36
G C. Carroll6.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 2 ast Score 19
SFABig
G N. Chotikavanic9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 60
G D. Hobbs4.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Daniel TR3.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
F J. Elouna Eyenga TR3.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7
SFABig
F G. Alisas4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 52
F E. Eguagie5.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
SFASmall
F A. Reed TR2.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 42
RiceBetterSF Austin
RICE offense210th of 366 · -6.4
SFASmall
SFA defense156th of 366 · -3.4
RICE defense163rd of 366 · -3.6
RICESmall
SFA offense252nd of 366 · -7.6
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
SFASmall
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.4 · 2 players
SFASmall
Frontcourt-0.8 · 3 players
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRICE betterSFA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rice
Guards
C. Adkins31 min · TRC. Carroll24 minD. Hobbs18 minJ. Dar10 min · TRB. Howell10 minC. Andrews-HeitzNew
Forwards
J. Elouna Eyenga18 min · TRE. Eguagie17 minJ. Oladokun17 minE. Cochran2 minA. LeethNewZ. FlasarNew
SF Austin
Guards
M. Russell36 min · TRN. Chotikavanic23 minC. Green7 minM. Scurry7 minA. Simmons4 min · TRB. Melvin3 min
Forwards
E. Daniel14 min · TRG. Alisas14 minA. Reed11 min · TRK. Pearson8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RICESFA
Scoring
72.0 #240Points per game74.9 #166
1.06 #229Points per possession1.13 #88
67.9 #236Pace (possessions)66.4 #298
Shooting
48.5 #303Effective FG%51.7 #160
34.3 #1533-point %35.8 #71
44.1 #863-point attempt rate39.8 #176
33.9 #214Free throw rate30.1 #306
Possessions
17.9 #265Turnover rate14.2 #29
35.3 #38Offensive rebound rate33.8 #74
11.3 #320Assists per game13.1 #209
Defense
76.8 #235Points allowed66.7 #20
1.13 #294Points allowed per possession1.00 #29
51.0 #160Opponent effective FG%47.7 #35
34.0 #184Opponent 3-point %30.3 #11
15.7 #236Turnovers forced17.7 #116
65.4 #329Defensive rebound rate70.5 #131
6.5 #185Steals per game6.9 #136
3.9 #91Blocks per game3.7 #118
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rice

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UTSA80–71
  • L@ North Texas58–62
  • W@ Temple80–74
  • Lvs South Florida56–75
  • L@ Tulane75–81

A week or more of rest.

SF Austin

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa84–89
  • Lvs McNeese59–76
  • Wvs Texas A&M-CC60–58
  • W@ Incarnate Word76–68
  • W@ Hou Christian77–56

A week or more of rest.