1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. CIT @ UNF
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

The Citadel Bulldogs at North Florida Ospreys

UNF Arena · at North Florida
#339CITThe Citadel
@
#333UNFNorth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CITThis seasonUNF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNF 79–75 · win probability UNF 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNF has more of the edges

CIT 2, UNF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: CIT plays 66.1 a game (313th fastest), UNF 72.3 (31st). Faster games mean more points
UNFBig
Three-pointers
CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 47.8% and 51.7% of their shots
CITSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CIT 27.9%, UNF 25.2%. Defensive: CIT 68.5%, UNF 62.4%
UNFSmall
UNF offense vs CIT defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings
UNFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5; UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3
CITSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CIT 16.3%, UNF 17.8%. Forced: CIT 14.8%, UNF 12.8%
Context
Schedule so far
CIT has played the 233rd-hardest schedule, UNF the 168th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNFSmall
Home court
UNF at home. This season: UNF 0-0 at home, CIT 0-0 away
UNFSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CIT 18%, UNF 45%. Transfers in: CIT 6, UNF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
CIT offense vs UNF defense
Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CIT 30.0, UNF 28.8. Allowed: CIT 33.3, UNF 31.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNF -3.8—
Total—153.6—
Projected score—CIT 74.9 · UNF 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNF -2.1—
1H total71.8—
1H projected scoreCIT 34.9 · UNF 37—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: The Citadel 1, North Florida 1, even 3
The CitadelBetterNorth Florida
G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 13
UNFSmall
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 17
Even
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 19
Even
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 32
CITSmall
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
The CitadelBetterNorth Florida
CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7
Even
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1
UNFSmall
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players
CITBig
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.7 · 5 players
UNFSmall
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCIT betterUNF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
The Citadel
Guards
E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min
Forwards
R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min
Centers
Y. AnsongNew
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CITUNF
Scoring
68.3 #309Points per game77.1 #112
1.03 #283Points per possession1.06 #218
66.1 #313Pace (possessions)72.3 #31
Shooting
49.5 #265Effective FG%52.9 #106
32.0 #2833-point %35.0 #117
47.8 #263-point attempt rate51.7 #7
30.0 #309Free throw rate28.8 #333
Possessions
16.3 #156Turnover rate17.8 #261
27.9 #270Offensive rebound rate25.2 #335
12.2 #272Assists per game13.4 #185
Defense
78.9 #293Points allowed89.6 #365
1.20 #357Points allowed per possession1.24 #364
57.5 #361Opponent effective FG%56.3 #349
36.6 #335Opponent 3-point %35.1 #253
14.8 #306Turnovers forced12.8 #360
68.5 #227Defensive rebound rate62.4 #361
5.2 #318Steals per game4.6 #352
2.5 #304Blocks per game1.4 #364
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

The Citadel

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU76–83
  • Wvs Chattanooga88–85
  • W@ Wofford93–90
  • L@ Furman51–72
  • Lvs Chattanooga72–93

A week or more of rest.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.