Bellarmine Knights at Illinois State Redbirds: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 12:00 AM ETCEFCU Arena · at Illinois St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bellarmine and Illinois St
BELL	This season	ILST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILST 83–67 · win probability ILST 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

BELL 0, ILST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILSTBig

ILST offense vs BELL defense

Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings

ILSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BELL 22.4%, ILST 28.0%. Defensive: BELL 65.8%, ILST 74.6%

ILSTBig

BELL offense vs ILST defense

Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings

ILSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4; ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8

Context

Schedule so far

BELL has played the 229th-hardest schedule, ILST the 135th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ILSTSmall

Three-pointers

BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%; ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 41.2% and 43.3% of their shots

ILSTSmall

Home court

ILST at home. This season: ILST 0-0 at home, BELL 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BELL 56%, ILST 37%. Transfers in: BELL 1, ILST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BELL plays 66.7 a game (288th fastest), ILST 67.7 (241st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BELL 35.0, ILST 31.6. Allowed: BELL 34.3, ILST 32.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BELL 15.4%, ILST 16.8%. Forced: BELL 15.1%, ILST 16.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILST -16.1	—
Total	—	149.4	—
Projected score	—	BELL 66.6 · ILST 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILST -9.4	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	BELL 30.2 · ILST 39.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BELL LLWWL	19-11	63%	8-7	—
ILST LWWWL	19-16	54%	10-5	—

Venue/role: BELL away; ILST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BELL OUOOO	20-10	67%	11-19
ILST UUOUO	15-20	43%	22-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELL	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ILST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bellarmine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ EKU	L92–95LO
Nov 24	vs GASO	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ NKU	L76–80WO

Illinois St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs SCU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs TLSA	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ EIU	W69–61LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bellarmine

30 games played

Straight up

11-19

37% wins

Against the spread

19-11

63% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-10

67% overs · avg +9.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1937%

L L L L W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1163%

L W L W W W W W W W L L W L W L W L W W W W W L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1067%

O O O O U U U O U O O O O O U O O O U U O U O O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180
Nov 19	@ND	L 79-86	+24.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	@CIT	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsHCU	W 74-69	+2.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@MUR	L 68-81	+16.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsNKU	L 76-80	+4.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsUTC	W 79-64	+1.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 23	@UK	L 85-99	+34.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 1	@WGA	L 85-87	-1.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 3	@QUC	L 76-98	+7.5	L −14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	vsCARK	W 84-78	+2.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 162
Jan 10	vsUNA	L 73-82	-4.5	L −13.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 15	@LIP	L 71-81	+11.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 17	@EKU	L 69-89	+5.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 158
Jan 22	@JAX	W 77-70	+4.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 147
Jan 24	@UNF	L 114-117	-3.5	L −6.5	164.5	O 231
Jan 28	vsWGA	W 77-74	-2.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 31	vsQUC	W 78-75	+5.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsSTET	W 92-71	-4.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsFGCU	W 81-65	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	@CARK	L 76-84	+8.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	@APSU	L 70-90	+9.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 160
Feb 18	vsLIP	L 72-75	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 21	vsEKU	L 92-95	+1.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 187
Feb 25	@UNA	L 68-73	-2.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsAPSU	W 111-97	+5.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 208
Mar 4	vsJAX	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 161
Mar 6	vsCARK	L 73-86	+6.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

L 79-86

+17.5

CIT

W 70-58

+8.5

HCU

W 74-69

+7.5

MUR

L 68-81

+3.5

NKU

L 76-80

+0.5

UTC

W 79-64

+16.5

L 85-99

+20.5

WGA

L 85-87

−3.5

QUC

L 76-98

−14.5

CARK

W 84-78

+8.5

UNA

L 73-82

−13.5

LIP

L 71-81

+1.5

EKU

L 69-89

−14.5

JAX

W 77-70

+11.5

UNF

L 114-117

−6.5

WGA

W 77-74

+0.5

QUC

W 78-75

+8.5

STET

W 92-71

+16.5

FGCU

W 81-65

+18.5

CARK

L 76-84

+0.5

APSU

L 70-90

−10.5

LIP

L 72-75

+0.5

EKU

L 92-95

−1.5

UNA

L 68-73

−7.5

APSU

W 111-97

+19.5

JAX

W 82-79

+1.5

CARK

L 73-86

−6.5

covered 19didn’t cover 11avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

L 79-86

+14.5

CIT

W 70-58

−28.5

HCU

W 74-69

−1.5

MUR

L 68-81

−8.5

NKU

L 76-80

+9.5

UTC

W 79-64

−3.5

L 85-99

+31.5

WGA

L 85-87

+20.5

QUC

L 76-98

+4.5

CARK

W 84-78

+7.5

UNA

L 73-82

+8.5

LIP

L 71-81

−2.5

EKU

L 69-89

+1.5

JAX

W 77-70

+8.5

UNF

L 114-117

+66.5

WGA

W 77-74

−0.5

QUC

W 78-75

−10.5

STET

W 92-71

+14.5

FGCU

W 81-65

−5.5

CARK

L 76-84

+9.5

APSU

L 70-90

+6.5

LIP

L 72-75

−7.5

EKU

L 92-95

+33.5

UNA

L 68-73

−5.5

APSU

W 111-97

+54.5

JAX

W 82-79

+16.5

CARK

L 73-86

+4.5

over 20under 10avg +9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois St

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

L W L W W W W W W L W W W W L L L W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L L W W W L W W W W W W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

U U U O U O U O O O U U U U O U O O U U U U O O O U U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 14	vsUSC	L 67-87	+15.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 16	@LBSU	W 82-80	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 23	vsCCU	W 94-42	-12.5	W +39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 27	vsCLT	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsFUR	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsEKU	W 89-78	-12.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 6	vsCHST	W 95-53	-20.5	W +21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsUSU	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 18	@SIU	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsINST	W 85-65	-13.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	@DRKE	W 73-56	-4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 1	vsEVAN	W 73-47	-12.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 7	@VAL	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUIC	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	@INST	L 89-94	-6.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	vsBRAD	W 88-62	-5.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNI	W 59-54	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	@BEL	L 69-80	+5.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@MUR	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 3	vsSIU	L 50-54	-8.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 104
Feb 6	vsDRKE	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	@EVAN	L 80-88	-10.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsVAL	W 86-64	-8.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UIC	L 56-83	-1.5	L −28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	vsMUR	W 78-61	-2.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BRAD	L 60-74	+3.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 25	@UNI	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	vsBEL	W 81-74	+1.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsUNI	L 52-74	+1.5	L −20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsKENT	W 79-58	-4.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 137
Mar 22	@WAKE	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 25	@DAY	W 61-55	+7.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsAUB	L 66-88	+7.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

USC

L 67-87

−4.5

LBSU

W 82-80

−6.5

CCU

W 94-42

+39.5

CLT

W 79-69

+4.5

FUR

W 72-65

+3.5

EKU

W 89-78

−1.5

CHST

W 95-53

+21.5

USU

L 78-83

+3.5

SIU

W 75-68

+8.5

INST

W 85-65

+6.5

DRKE

W 73-56

+12.5

EVAN

W 73-47

+13.5

VAL

L 71-77

−12.5

UIC

L 59-63

−14.5

INST

L 89-94

−11.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+20.5

UNI

W 59-54

−1.5

BEL

L 69-80

−5.5

MUR

W 70-65

+8.5

SIU

L 50-54

−12.5

DRKE

W 86-76

−0.5

EVAN

L 80-88

−18.5

VAL

W 86-64

+13.5

UIC

L 56-83

−28.5

MUR

W 78-61

+14.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−10.5

UNI

W 71-69

+6.5

BEL

W 81-74

+8.5

UNI

L 52-74

−20.5

KENT

W 79-58

+16.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+11.5

DAY

W 61-55

+13.5

AUB

L 66-88

−14.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

USC

L 67-87

−1.5

LBSU

W 82-80

+20.5

CCU

W 94-42

−10.5

CLT

W 79-69

+8.5

FUR

W 72-65

−8.5

EKU

W 89-78

+12.5

CHST

W 95-53

+3.5

USU

L 78-83

+12.5

SIU

W 75-68

−10.5

INST

W 85-65

−2.5

DRKE

W 73-56

−16.5

EVAN

W 73-47

−24.5

VAL

L 71-77

+9.5

UIC

L 59-63

−19.5

INST

L 89-94

+34.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+2.5

UNI

W 59-54

−19.5

BEL

L 69-80

−1.5

MUR

W 70-65

−24.5

SIU

L 50-54

−36.5

DRKE

W 86-76

+17.5

EVAN

L 80-88

+30.5

VAL

W 86-64

+11.5

UIC

L 56-83

−1.5

MUR

W 78-61

−19.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−11.5

UNI

W 71-69

+7.5

BEL

W 81-74

+4.5

UNI

L 52-74

−4.5

KENT

W 79-58

−17.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+0.5

DAY

W 61-55

−24.5

AUB

L 66-88

+4.5

over 15under 20avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois St has the better starters

Position by position: Bellarmine 0, Illinois St 4, even 1

BellarmineBetterIllinois St

G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31

ILSTSmall

G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57

G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35

ILSTSmall

G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51

F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

ILSTSmall

G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4

ILSTSmall

G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24

F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26

Even

G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

BellarmineBetterIllinois St

BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3

ILSTBig

ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9

BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2

ILSTBig

ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players

BELLSmall

Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players

Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

ILSTBig

Bench+3.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestBELL betterILST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bellarmine

Guards

K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew

Forwards

S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew

Illinois St

Guards

M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min

Forwards

C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BELL78.9 #80

ILST74.1 #191

Points per possession

BELL1.18 #34

ILST1.09 #151

Pace (possessions)

BELL66.7 #288

ILST67.7 #241

Shooting

Effective FG%

BELL59.4 #3

ILST53.6 #77

3-point %

BELL38.1 #17

ILST34.9 #126

3-point attempt rate

BELL41.2 #145

ILST43.3 #106

Free throw rate

BELL35.0 #178

ILST31.6 #266

Possessions

Turnover rate

BELL15.4 #100

ILST16.8 #193

Offensive rebound rate

BELL22.4 #354

ILST28.0 #268

Assists per game

BELL14.8 #98

ILST13.5 #179

Defense

Points allowed

BELL83.3 #350

ILST69.1 #49

Points allowed per possession

BELL1.25 #365

ILST1.02 #48

Opponent effective FG%

BELL59.4 #365

ILST49.8 #90

Opponent 3-point %

BELL40.4 #364

ILST33.0 #122

Turnovers forced

BELL15.1 #277

ILST16.0 #221

Defensive rebound rate

BELL65.8 #320

ILST74.6 #13

Steals per game

BELL5.8 #255

ILST5.5 #294

Blocks per game

BELL1.7 #356

ILST2.3 #326

BELL		ILST
Scoring
78.9 #80	Points per game	74.1 #191
1.18 #34	Points per possession	1.09 #151
66.7 #288	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #241
Shooting
59.4 #3	Effective FG%	53.6 #77
38.1 #17	3-point %	34.9 #126
41.2 #145	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #106
35.0 #178	Free throw rate	31.6 #266
Possessions
15.4 #100	Turnover rate	16.8 #193
22.4 #354	Offensive rebound rate	28.0 #268
14.8 #98	Assists per game	13.5 #179
Defense
83.3 #350	Points allowed	69.1 #49
1.25 #365	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #48
59.4 #365	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #90
40.4 #364	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #122
15.1 #277	Turnovers forced	16.0 #221
65.8 #320	Defensive rebound rate	74.6 #13
5.8 #255	Steals per game	5.5 #294
1.7 #356	Blocks per game	2.3 #326

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bellarmine

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs C Arkansas73–86
Wvs Jacksonville82–79
Wvs Austin Peay111–97
L@ North Alabama68–73
Lvs E Kentucky92–95

A week or more of rest.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn66–88
W@ Dayton61–55
W@ Wake Forest78–75
Wvs Kent State79–58
Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

Bellarmine Knights at Illinois State Redbirds

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bellarmine

Illinois St

Illinois St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bellarmine

Illinois St