Nicholls Colonels at Ole Miss Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 12:00 AM ETThe Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nicholls and Ole Miss
NICH	This season	MISS
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 86–62 · win probability MISS 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

NICH 1, MISS 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NICH has played the 277th-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MISSBig

NICH offense vs MISS defense

Offense 283rd of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings

MISSBig

MISS offense vs NICH defense

Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 282nd, on the model’s ratings

MISSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NICH 50.6 and allows 54.4; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5

MISSSmall

Home court

MISS at home. This season: MISS 0-0 at home, NICH 0-0 away

NICHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NICH 34.5, MISS 33.0. Allowed: NICH 37.9, MISS 41.2

Even

Three-pointers

NICH hits 33.3% and allows 34.6%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 43.9% and 35.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NICH plays 68.3 a game (210th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NICH 20%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: NICH 6, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NICH 28.1%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: NICH 66.3%, MISS 67.4%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NICH 17.4%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: NICH 20.5%, MISS 16.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MISS -24.3	—
Total	—	148.6	—
Projected score	—	NICH 62.2 · MISS 86.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MISS -14.3	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	NICH 27.6 · MISS 41.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NICH WWLWL	15-17	47%	10-9	—
MISS LWWWW	15-20	43%	4-12	—

Venue/role: NICH away; MISS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NICH UUUUO	17-15	53%	13-19
MISS UUUUO	20-15	57%	15-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NICH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MISS	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nicholls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs USM	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs TROY	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ TXST	No recent meeting

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs CLEM	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ VT	No recent meeting
Dec 7	vs W&M	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nicholls

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L L W W L W W W L W L L L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U U U O O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UK	L 51-77	+31.5	W +5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	@EIU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 12	@VAL	L 63-68	+2.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 15	@MUR	L 79-99	+14.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 22	@OKST	L 81-95	+23.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 28	@TULN	L 72-82	+8.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	@CREI	L 76-96	+18.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 6	vsUIW	W 74-67	+1.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 17	vsHCU	W 79-64	-3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 21	@PAC	L 82-95	+8.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 29	@AMCC	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 31	@RGV	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsETAM	W 80-58	-6.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 5	vsNWST	W 74-72	-8.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	@NOLA	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 12	@MCN	L 68-94	+15.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsLAM	L 80-90	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 170
Jan 19	vsSFA	L 62-79	+4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 24	@SELA	L 61-67	+2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsNOLA	L 62-80	-4.5	L −22.5	157.5	U 142
Jan 31	@ETAM	W 72-68	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 2	@NWST	W 61-58	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsAMCC	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 159
Feb 9	vsRGV	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	@UIW	W 91-83	+2.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 16	@HCU	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@SFA	L 78-81	+12.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 159
Feb 23	@LAM	W 53-52	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Feb 28	vsSELA	W 68-60	-4.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	vsMCN	L 65-75	+9.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 8	vsNWST	W 61-47	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 108
Mar 9	vsRGV	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-77

+5.5

EIU

L 57-65

−10.5

VAL

L 63-68

−2.5

MUR

L 79-99

−5.5

OKST

L 81-95

+9.5

TULN

L 72-82

−1.5

CREI

L 76-96

−1.5

UIW

W 74-67

+8.5

HCU

W 79-64

+11.5

PAC

L 82-95

−4.5

AMCC

W 76-71

+10.5

RGV

W 71-69

+5.5

ETAM

W 80-58

+15.5

NWST

W 74-72

−6.5

NOLA

W 90-77

+9.5

MCN

L 68-94

−10.5

LAM

L 80-90

−13.5

SFA

L 62-79

−12.5

SELA

L 61-67

−3.5

NOLA

L 62-80

−22.5

ETAM

W 72-68

+5.5

NWST

W 61-58

+1.5

AMCC

L 76-83

−8.5

RGV

L 72-92

−16.5

UIW

W 91-83

+10.5

HCU

L 68-72

−2.5

SFA

L 78-81

+9.5

LAM

W 53-52

+4.5

SELA

W 68-60

+3.5

MCN

L 65-75

−0.5

NWST

W 61-47

+12.5

RGV

L 68-86

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-77

−29.5

EIU

L 57-65

−13.5

VAL

L 63-68

−13.5

MUR

L 79-99

+20.5

OKST

L 81-95

+20.5

TULN

L 72-82

+5.5

CREI

L 76-96

+28.5

UIW

W 74-67

−4.5

HCU

W 79-64

+5.5

PAC

L 82-95

+37.5

AMCC

W 76-71

+9.5

RGV

W 71-69

−5.5

ETAM

W 80-58

−8.5

NWST

W 74-72

+1.5

NOLA

W 90-77

+12.5

MCN

L 68-94

+15.5

LAM

L 80-90

+30.5

SFA

L 62-79

−3.5

SELA

L 61-67

−13.5

NOLA

L 62-80

−15.5

ETAM

W 72-68

−6.5

NWST

W 61-58

−28.5

AMCC

L 76-83

+21.5

RGV

L 72-92

+16.5

UIW

W 91-83

+25.5

HCU

L 68-72

+3.5

SFA

L 78-81

+11.5

LAM

W 53-52

−38.5

SELA

W 68-60

−11.5

MCN

L 65-75

−5.5

NWST

W 61-47

−30.5

RGV

L 68-86

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ole Miss

35 games played

Straight up

15-20

43% wins

Against the spread

15-20

43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-2043%

W W W W W L L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-2043%

W L L L L L L L W L L L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1557%

O O O O U O O U U U O U U O O O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSELA	W 88-58	-21.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsULM	W 86-65	-37.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 11	vsMEM	W 83-77	-9.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsCSUB	W 82-60	-23.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsAPSU	W 72-65	-20.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsIOWA	L 69-74	+4.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsUTAH	L 74-75	-10.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	vsMIA	L 66-75	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 6	@SJU	L 58-63	+13.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsUSM	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsAAMU	W 80-66	-20.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsNCSU	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 29	vsALCN	W 79-43	-28.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@OU	L 70-86	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	vsARK	L 87-94	+3.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 10	vsMIZ	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 14	@UGA	W 97-95	+10.5	W +12.5	158.5	O 192
Jan 17	@MSST	W 68-67	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 20	vsAUB	L 66-78	+3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 24	@UK	L 63-72	+11.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 31	@VAN	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 3	@TENN	L 66-84	+12.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@TEX	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	vsALA	L 74-93	+6.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsMSST	L 78-90	-3.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	@TA&M	L 77-80	+9.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 21	vsFLA	L 75-94	+13.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	vsLSU	L 99-106	-2.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	@AUB	W 85-79	+10.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 164
Mar 3	vsVAN	L 86-89	+7.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	vsSC	L 61-64	-7.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsTEX	W 76-66	+5.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 142
Mar 12	vsUGA	W 76-72	+5.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 13	vsALA	W 80-79	+12.5	W +13.5	166.5	U 159
Mar 14	vsARK	L 90-93	+8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+8.5

ULM

W 86-65

−16.5

MEM

W 83-77

−3.5

CSUB

W 82-60

−1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−13.5

IOWA

L 69-74

−0.5

UTAH

L 74-75

−11.5

MIA

L 66-75

−10.5

SJU

L 58-63

+8.5

USM

W 71-67

−8.5

AAMU

W 80-66

−6.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−6.5

ALCN

W 79-43

+7.5

L 70-86

−9.5

ARK

L 87-94

−3.5

MIZ

W 76-69

+5.5

UGA

W 97-95

+12.5

MSST

W 68-67

+4.5

AUB

L 66-78

−8.5

L 63-72

+2.5

VAN

L 68-71

+7.5

TENN

L 66-84

−5.5

TEX

L 68-79

−1.5

ALA

L 74-93

−12.5

MSST

L 78-90

−15.5

TA&M

L 77-80

+6.5

FLA

L 75-94

−5.5

LSU

L 99-106

−9.5

AUB

W 85-79

+16.5

VAN

L 86-89

+4.5

L 61-64

−10.5

TEX

W 76-66

+15.5

UGA

W 76-72

+9.5

ALA

W 80-79

+13.5

ARK

L 90-93

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 20avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+2.5

ULM

W 86-65

+1.5

MEM

W 83-77

+7.5

CSUB

W 82-60

+1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−8.5

IOWA

L 69-74

+2.5

UTAH

L 74-75

+4.5

MIA

L 66-75

−4.5

SJU

L 58-63

−30.5

USM

W 71-67

−0.5

AAMU

W 80-66

+10.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−10.5

ALCN

W 79-43

−26.5

L 70-86

+9.5

ARK

L 87-94

+27.5

MIZ

W 76-69

+1.5

UGA

W 97-95

+33.5

MSST

W 68-67

−12.5

AUB

L 66-78

−7.5

L 63-72

−10.5

VAN

L 68-71

−10.5

TENN

L 66-84

+10.5

TEX

L 68-79

+1.5

ALA

L 74-93

+2.5

MSST

L 78-90

+21.5

TA&M

L 77-80

−0.5

FLA

L 75-94

+16.5

LSU

L 99-106

+57.5

AUB

W 85-79

+10.5

VAN

L 86-89

+19.5

L 61-64

−22.5

TEX

W 76-66

−5.5

UGA

W 76-72

−8.5

ALA

W 80-79

−7.5

ARK

L 90-93

+23.5

over 20under 15avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: Nicholls 0, Ole Miss 3, even 2

NichollsBetterOle Miss

G D. Cockrill TR11.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 75

MISSSmall

G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

G C. Winborne7.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 29

MISSBig

G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78

G S. Sharp4.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 19

MISSBig

G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88

F A. Dent TR6 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

F J. Sileu TR0.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77

NichollsBetterOle Miss

NICH offense283rd of 366 · -8.7

MISSBig

MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0

NICH defense282nd of 366 · -7.0

MISSBig

MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6

Backcourt-2.5 · 3 players

MISSBig

Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

MISSBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

MISSSmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNICH betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nicholls

Guards

D. Cockrill24 min · TRC. Winborne23 minS. Sharp17 minH. Carter4 min · TRC. Simpson3 min · TRJ. Matthews2 min

Forwards

A. Dent13 min · TRJ. Sileu7 min · TRA. Arop2 min · TRM. MboupNewJ. TaylorNew

Ole Miss

Guards

C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew

Forwards

D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew

Centers

M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NICH71.0 #266

MISS75.9 #145

Points per possession

NICH1.04 #275

MISS1.09 #157

Pace (possessions)

NICH68.3 #210

MISS69.5 #145

Shooting

Effective FG%

NICH50.6 #205

MISS50.5 #217

3-point %

NICH33.3 #215

MISS33.2 #221

3-point attempt rate

NICH43.9 #90

MISS35.5 #258

Free throw rate

NICH34.5 #195

MISS33.0 #238

Possessions

Turnover rate

NICH17.4 #232

MISS14.0 #23

Offensive rebound rate

NICH28.1 #263

MISS28.3 #253

Assists per game

NICH12.9 #219

MISS13.5 #178

Defense

Points allowed

NICH75.7 #209

MISS76.1 #219

Points allowed per possession

NICH1.11 #243

MISS1.10 #215

Opponent effective FG%

NICH54.4 #311

MISS50.5 #127

Opponent 3-point %

NICH34.6 #224

MISS33.5 #151

Turnovers forced

NICH20.5 #15

MISS16.5 #190

Defensive rebound rate

NICH66.3 #314

MISS67.4 #285

Steals per game

NICH8.7 #15

MISS7.1 #118

Blocks per game

NICH2.8 #270

MISS4.3 #48

NICH		MISS
Scoring
71.0 #266	Points per game	75.9 #145
1.04 #275	Points per possession	1.09 #157
68.3 #210	Pace (possessions)	69.5 #145
Shooting
50.6 #205	Effective FG%	50.5 #217
33.3 #215	3-point %	33.2 #221
43.9 #90	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #258
34.5 #195	Free throw rate	33.0 #238
Possessions
17.4 #232	Turnover rate	14.0 #23
28.1 #263	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #253
12.9 #219	Assists per game	13.5 #178
Defense
75.7 #209	Points allowed	76.1 #219
1.11 #243	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #215
54.4 #311	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #127
34.6 #224	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #151
20.5 #15	Turnovers forced	16.5 #190
66.3 #314	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #285
8.7 #15	Steals per game	7.1 #118
2.8 #270	Blocks per game	4.3 #48

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nicholls

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Rio Grande68–86
Wvs N'Western St61–47
Lvs McNeese65–75
Wvs SE Louisiana68–60
W@ Lamar53–52

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas90–93
Wvs Alabama80–79
Wvs Georgia76–72
Wvs Texas76–66
Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.

Nicholls Colonels at Ole Miss Rebels

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Nicholls

Ole Miss

Ole Miss has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nicholls

Ole Miss