1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. MTST @ GONZ
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Montana State Bobcats at Gonzaga Bulldogs

McCarthey Athletic Center · at Gonzaga
#162MTSTMontana St
@
#17GONZGonzaga AP #15
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSTThis seasonGONZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 88–62 · win probability GONZ 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

MTST 1, GONZ 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MTST has played the 278th-hardest schedule, GONZ the 84th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GONZBig
MTST offense vs GONZ defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings
GONZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTST 27.0%, GONZ 34.8%. Defensive: MTST 71.8%, GONZ 74.3%
GONZBig
GONZ offense vs MTST defense
Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
GONZBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTST 14.8%, GONZ 13.7%. Forced: MTST 15.6%, GONZ 19.9%
MTSTBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTST 89%, GONZ 21%. Transfers in: MTST 2, GONZ 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
GONZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6; GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MTST plays 67.9 a game (233rd fastest), GONZ 70.4 (98th). Faster games mean more points
GONZSmall
Home court
GONZ at home. This season: GONZ 0-0 at home, MTST 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%; GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 44.6% and 30.8% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTST 30.2, GONZ 31.0. Allowed: MTST 29.6, GONZ 30.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GONZ -25.8—
Total—150.2—
Projected score—MTST 62.2 · GONZ 88

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGONZ -15.2—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreMTST 27.5 · GONZ 42.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: Montana St 0, Gonzaga 3, even 2
Montana StBetterGonzaga
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
Even
G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
GONZSmall
F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
GONZBig
F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
GONZBig
C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86
Montana StBetterGonzaga
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
GONZBig
GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
GONZBig
GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
GONZBig
Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
GONZBig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
GONZBig
Bench+2.8 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMTST betterGONZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
Gonzaga
Guards
J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew
Forwards
C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew
Centers
M. Diop30 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSTGONZ
Scoring
75.7 #151Points per game84.3 #17
1.12 #107Points per possession1.20 #13
67.9 #233Pace (possessions)70.4 #98
Shooting
53.6 #80Effective FG%55.6 #25
36.1 #523-point %33.3 #212
44.6 #763-point attempt rate30.8 #342
30.2 #303Free throw rate31.0 #282
Possessions
14.8 #53Turnover rate13.7 #17
27.0 #292Offensive rebound rate34.8 #52
10.6 #347Assists per game18.4 #7
Defense
73.5 #144Points allowed66.2 #15
1.08 #158Points allowed per possession0.94 #1
51.6 #193Opponent effective FG%46.3 #15
34.3 #198Opponent 3-point %30.6 #23
15.6 #242Turnovers forced19.9 #25
71.8 #75Defensive rebound rate74.3 #16
6.5 #171Steals per game8.4 #23
2.8 #263Blocks per game3.7 #116
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas68–74
  • Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
  • Wvs Santa Clara79–68
  • Wvs Oregon St65–56
  • L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.