1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. TNST @ USF
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Tennessee State Tigers at South Florida Bulls

Yuengling Center · at South Florida
#245TNSTTennessee St
@
#84USFSouth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TNSTThis seasonUSF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USF 88–70 · win probability USF 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USF has more of the edges

TNST 0, USF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TNST has played the 345th-hardest schedule, USF the 89th. A record against a soft schedule means less
USFBig
USF offense vs TNST defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings
USFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TNST 33.4, USF 40.4. Allowed: TNST 41.4, USF 39.0
USFSmall
TNST offense vs USF defense
Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
USFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6; USF 50.6 and allows 48.8
USFSmall
Home court
USF at home. This season: USF 0-0 at home, TNST 0-0 away
USFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TNST 16.7%, USF 15.1%. Forced: TNST 19.8%, USF 19.1%
Even
Three-pointers
TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%; USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 30.7% and 43.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: TNST plays 71.1 a game (66th fastest), USF 74.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TNST 34.8%, USF 38.1%. Defensive: TNST 69.4%, USF 68.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TNST 10%, USF 14%. Transfers in: TNST 7, USF 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USF -17.4—
Total—158.1—
Projected score—TNST 70.4 · USF 87.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSF -10.2—
1H total73.9—
1H projected scoreTNST 31.8 · USF 42.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee St 0, South Florida 2, even 3
Tennessee StBetterSouth Florida
G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85
Even
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30
USFBig
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
USFBig
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79
Even
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
Even
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
Tennessee StBetterSouth Florida
TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3
USFSmall
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3
USFBig
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
USFBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players
TNSTSmall
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
USFSmall
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTNST betterUSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tennessee St
Guards
T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min
Forwards
A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TNSTUSF
Scoring
77.9 #96Points per game86.8 #6
1.10 #146Points per possession1.17 #42
71.1 #66Pace (possessions)74.4 #9
Shooting
50.0 #237Effective FG%50.6 #209
33.3 #2113-point %32.5 #255
30.7 #3443-point attempt rate43.8 #93
33.4 #228Free throw rate40.4 #55
Possessions
16.7 #177Turnover rate15.1 #73
34.8 #53Offensive rebound rate38.1 #7
12.7 #237Assists per game16.8 #28
Defense
75.1 #191Points allowed76.5 #230
1.06 #97Points allowed per possession1.03 #54
51.6 #190Opponent effective FG%48.8 #58
34.0 #183Opponent 3-point %34.5 #218
19.8 #26Turnovers forced19.1 #42
69.4 #184Defensive rebound rate68.1 #252
9.0 #10Steals per game9.0 #8
3.8 #99Blocks per game4.0 #72
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State74–108
  • Wvs Morehead St93–67
  • Wvs UT Martin68–55
  • W@ UT Martin67–42
  • W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.