1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. MRST @ UML
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Marist Red Foxes at UMass Lowell River Hawks

Kennedy Family Athletic Complex · at UMass Lowell
#235MRSTMarist
@
#307UMLUMass Lowell
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MRSTThis seasonUML
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRST 72–69 · win probability MRST 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRST has more of the edges

MRST 4, UML 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMLBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MRST 25.7, UML 34.9. Allowed: MRST 37.6, UML 28.3
MRSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MRST 17.0%, UML 18.0%. Forced: MRST 19.4%, UML 14.2%
MRSTBig
UML offense vs MRST defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 135th, on the model’s ratings
MRSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MRST 49.3 and allows 45.6; UML 49.8 and allows 53.5
MRSTBig
Three-pointers
MRST hits 32.2% and allows 28.6%; UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 34.6% and 31.3% of their shots
UMLSmall
Home court
UML at home. This season: UML 0-0 at home, MRST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: MRST plays 66.8 a game (286th fastest), UML 68.9 (189th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MRST 29.1%, UML 32.7%. Defensive: MRST 71.7%, UML 70.7%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MRST 31%, UML 16%. Transfers in: MRST 1, UML 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
MRST has played the 339th-hardest schedule, UML the 312th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MRST offense vs UML defense
Offense 322nd of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MRST -3.1—
Total—141.3—
Projected score—MRST 72.2 · UML 69.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMRST -1.9—
1H total66.1—
1H projected scoreMRST 34 · UML 32.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Marist has the better starters

Position by position: Marist 1, UMass Lowell 0, even 4
MaristBetterUMass Lowell
G J. Collins-Roberts7.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 27
MRSTSmall
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
G J. Graham TR11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43
Even
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
F M. Parker5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
No call
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
C T. Watson6.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
C J. Gabriel2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
MaristBetterUMass Lowell
MRST offense322nd of 366 · -10.5
Even
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
MRST defense135th of 366 · -2.6
MRSTBig
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-3.3 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.0 · 3 players
MRSTSmall
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestMRST betterUML betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Marist
Guards
J. Collins-Roberts31 minJ. Graham28 min · TRJ. WilliamsNewC. SweeneyNewB. ArnoldNewD. ChessNew
Forwards
M. Parker15 minE. OnyiaNewL. RodriguezNew
Centers
T. Watson11 minJ. Gabriel7 minL. FranzNew
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MRSTUML
Scoring
68.9 #301Points per game71.7 #253
1.04 #276Points per possession1.04 #272
66.8 #286Pace (possessions)68.9 #189
Shooting
49.3 #276Effective FG%49.8 #247
32.2 #2723-point %32.2 #269
34.6 #2853-point attempt rate31.3 #336
25.7 #360Free throw rate34.9 #183
Possessions
17.0 #202Turnover rate18.0 #269
29.1 #233Offensive rebound rate32.7 #98
15.0 #89Assists per game11.9 #294
Defense
63.9 #4Points allowed77.4 #249
0.95 #3Points allowed per possession1.13 #277
45.6 #5Opponent effective FG%53.5 #284
28.6 #2Opponent 3-point %34.6 #226
19.4 #35Turnovers forced14.2 #329
71.7 #77Defensive rebound rate70.7 #126
7.1 #116Steals per game5.1 #326
3.1 #200Blocks per game3.0 #222
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Marist

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack57–58
  • Wvs Quinnipiac77–75
  • Lvs Saint Peter's56–63
  • Wvs Sacred Heart65–63
  • W@ Manhattan84–70

A week or more of rest.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.