1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. FAIR @ BRY
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Fairfield Stags at Bryant Bulldogs

Chace Athletic Center · at Bryant
#239FAIRFairfield
@
#290BRYBryant
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FAIRThis seasonBRY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 72–70 · win probability FAIR 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 141.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

FAIR 6, BRY 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAIRBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FAIR 15.4%, BRY 20.2%. Forced: FAIR 16.8%, BRY 14.6%
FAIRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FAIR 35.8%, BRY 27.7%. Defensive: FAIR 70.9%, BRY 69.0%
FAIRBig
Three-pointers
FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%; BRY hits 30.0% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 35.4% and 47.9% of their shots
FAIRBig
BRY offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 306th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
FAIR has played the 359th-hardest schedule, BRY the 261st. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAIRSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0; BRY 46.9 and allows 52.7
BRYSmall
Home court
BRY at home. This season: BRY 0-0 at home, FAIR 0-0 away
FAIRSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FAIR 53%, BRY 29%. Transfers in: FAIR 2, BRY 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: FAIR plays 67.3 a game (263rd fastest), BRY 65.2 (338th). Faster games mean more points
Even
FAIR offense vs BRY defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 254th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FAIR 27.7, BRY 29.4. Allowed: FAIR 30.4, BRY 33.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAIR -2.6—
Total—141.7—
Projected score—FAIR 72.2 · BRY 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAIR -1.7—
1H total66.3—
1H projected scoreFAIR 34 · BRY 32.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Bryant has the better starters

Position by position: Fairfield 1, Bryant 2, even 2
FairfieldBetterBryant
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
FAIRBig
G T. Tabales9 pts · 2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 20
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
No call
G F. Vassalluzzo0 pts · 0.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
BRYSmall
F A. Pasha TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 39
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
BRYBig
F K. Harvey10.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 64
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
No call
F E. Chatfield TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
FairfieldBetterBryant
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
Even
BRY defense254th of 366 · -6.6
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
FAIRSmall
BRY offense306th of 366 · -9.5
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
BRYBig
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
FAIRBig
Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
BRYSmall
Bench-0.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestFAIR betterBRY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
Bryant
Guards
T. Tabales28 minF. Vassalluzzo1 minJ. Sepe1 minM. DeOrsey1 minR. WoernerNew
Forwards
A. Pasha33 min · TRK. Harvey27 minE. Chatfield13 min · TRO. Nnani1 min · TRD. ThompsonNewC. LyonsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FAIRBRY
Scoring
72.9 #226Points per game63.0 #358
1.09 #166Points per possession0.96 #351
67.3 #263Pace (possessions)65.2 #338
Shooting
48.8 #294Effective FG%46.9 #340
33.2 #2163-point %30.0 #343
35.4 #2623-point attempt rate47.9 #25
27.7 #346Free throw rate29.4 #322
Possessions
15.4 #96Turnover rate20.2 #351
35.8 #29Offensive rebound rate27.7 #276
12.1 #277Assists per game11.4 #314
Defense
71.9 #104Points allowed73.3 #138
1.06 #118Points allowed per possession1.13 #283
51.0 #159Opponent effective FG%52.7 #257
34.3 #200Opponent 3-point %36.3 #320
16.8 #169Turnovers forced14.6 #313
70.9 #116Defensive rebound rate69.0 #203
6.5 #183Steals per game5.9 #250
3.5 #145Blocks per game3.9 #88
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.

Bryant

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Vermont57–77
  • L@ New Hampshire83–88
  • Wvs NJIT69–52
  • L@ UMBC58–70
  • Lvs Binghamton67–79

A week or more of rest.