1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. BRY @ PROV
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Bryant Bulldogs at Providence Friars

Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence
#290BRYBryant
@
#52PROVProvidence
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BRYThis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 90–63 · win probability PROV 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

BRY 0, PROV 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
BRY has played the 261st-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
PROVBig
BRY offense vs PROV defense
Offense 306th of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
PROVBig
PROV offense vs BRY defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 254th, on the model’s ratings
PROVBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BRY 46.9 and allows 52.7; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
PROVBig
Three-pointers
BRY hits 30.0% and allows 36.3%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 47.9% and 40.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: BRY plays 65.2 a game (338th fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
PROVSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BRY 29.4, PROV 36.7. Allowed: BRY 33.5, PROV 32.7
PROVSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BRY 27.7%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: BRY 69.0%, PROV 69.2%
PROVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BRY 20.2%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: BRY 14.6%, PROV 13.1%
PROVSmall
Home court
PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, BRY 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BRY 29%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: BRY 3, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PROV -27.6—
Total—153.1—
Projected score—BRY 62.7 · PROV 90.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -16.3—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreBRY 27.6 · PROV 43.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Bryant 0, Providence 3, even 2
BryantBetterProvidence
G T. Tabales9 pts · 2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 20
PROVBig
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
G F. Vassalluzzo0 pts · 0.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
F A. Pasha TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 39
PROVBig
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F K. Harvey10.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 64
PROVSmall
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
F E. Chatfield TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
BryantBetterProvidence
BRY offense306th of 366 · -9.5
PROVBig
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
BRY defense254th of 366 · -6.6
PROVBig
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.0 · 3 players
PROVBig
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestBRY betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bryant
Guards
T. Tabales28 minF. Vassalluzzo1 minJ. Sepe1 minM. DeOrsey1 minR. WoernerNew
Forwards
A. Pasha33 min · TRK. Harvey27 minE. Chatfield13 min · TRO. Nnani1 min · TRD. ThompsonNewC. LyonsNew
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BRYPROV
Scoring
63.0 #358Points per game85.3 #15
0.96 #351Points per possession1.15 #58
65.2 #338Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
46.9 #340Effective FG%55.0 #37
30.0 #3433-point %36.4 #45
47.9 #253-point attempt rate40.5 #157
29.4 #322Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
20.2 #351Turnover rate16.7 #174
27.7 #276Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
11.4 #314Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
73.3 #138Points allowed84.0 #356
1.13 #283Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
52.7 #257Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
36.3 #320Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
14.6 #313Turnovers forced13.1 #352
69.0 #203Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
5.9 #250Steals per game5.4 #313
3.9 #88Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bryant

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Vermont57–77
  • L@ New Hampshire83–88
  • Wvs NJIT69–52
  • L@ UMBC58–70
  • Lvs Binghamton67–79

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.