Memphis Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:15 PM ETMemorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Memphis and Vanderbilt
MEM	This season	VAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 87–72 · win probability VAN 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

MEM 0, VAN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VANBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 18.9%, VAN 13.5%. Forced: MEM 18.6%, VAN 17.7%

VANBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7; VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0

VANSmall

VAN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings

VANSmall

Three-pointers

MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%; VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 33.7% and 44.2% of their shots

VANSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 34.7, VAN 38.1. Allowed: MEM 42.4, VAN 39.5

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 81st-hardest schedule, VAN the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

VANSmall

Home court

VAN at home. This season: VAN 0-0 at home, MEM 0-0 away

Even

MEM offense vs VAN defense

Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: MEM plays 71.9 a game (37th fastest), VAN 70.9 (80th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 15%, VAN 26%. Transfers in: MEM 9, VAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 35.3%, VAN 31.2%. Defensive: MEM 64.3%, VAN 68.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VAN -14.8	—
Total	—	158.7	—
Projected score	—	MEM 72 · VAN 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAN -8.7	—
1H total	74.1	—
1H projected score	MEM 32.7 · VAN 41.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM LLWLL	14-18	44%	2-11	—
VAN WWLLL	18-18	50%	8-8	—

Venue/role: MEM away; VAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19
VAN UOUUU	17-19	47%	27-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
VAN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs LOU	L73–99LO
Nov 22	vs EVAN	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs PSU	No recent meeting

Vanderbilt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs PV	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs EIU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UCF	W105–93WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MEM 2–1 VANMEM leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MEM 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2025-26	VAN 77 @ MEM 70	MEM +9.5	MEM W
Dec 23, 2023-24	VAN 75 @ MEM 77	MEM -16.5	VAN W
Nov 7, 2022-23	MEM 76 @ VAN 67	VAN +2.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Memphis

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L L L L W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W W W W W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O O U U U O U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsSIU	W 74-58	-10.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 3	vsNOLA	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsBAY	W 78-71	+3.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 149
Dec 13	@LOU	L 73-99	+16.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsVAN	L 70-77	+9.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 20	@MSST	L 66-71	+3.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 22	vsALST	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 31	vsUNT	W 57-48	-9.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 3	@RICE	W 76-70	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 11	@FAU	L 78-89	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsTEM	W 55-53	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 108
Jan 18	vsUTSA	W 95-69	-20.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@TLSA	L 66-83	+6.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WICH	L 59-74	+3.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsFAU	W 92-65	-3.5	W +23.5	152.5	O 157
Feb 1	vsTULN	L 76-78	-8.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 5	@UAB	W 90-80	+1.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 170
Feb 8	vsCLT	W 77-54	-10.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 131
Feb 12	@UNT	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 14	@USU	L 75-99	+13.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 19	@USF	L 66-87	+9.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 22	vsUAB	L 67-78	-5.5	L −16.5	152.5	U 145
Feb 26	vsWICH	L 82-88	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@ECU	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsUSF	L 89-96	+7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	@TULN	W 96-95	-2.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsTULN	L 69-81	-4.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

SIU

W 74-58

+5.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+1.5

BAY

W 78-71

+10.5

LOU

L 73-99

−9.5

VAN

L 70-77

+2.5

MSST

L 66-71

−1.5

ALST

W 88-67

+0.5

UNT

W 57-48

−0.5

RICE

W 76-70

−1.5

FAU

L 78-89

−9.5

TEM

W 55-53

−5.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+5.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−10.5

WICH

L 59-74

−11.5

FAU

W 92-65

+23.5

TULN

L 76-78

−10.5

UAB

W 90-80

+11.5

CLT

W 77-54

+12.5

UNT

L 69-76

−9.5

USU

L 75-99

−10.5

USF

L 66-87

−11.5

UAB

L 67-78

−16.5

WICH

L 82-88

−7.5

ECU

L 68-84

−20.5

USF

L 89-96

+0.5

TULN

W 96-95

−1.5

TULN

L 69-81

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

SIU

W 74-58

−24.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+6.5

BAY

W 78-71

−9.5

LOU

L 73-99

+9.5

VAN

L 70-77

−12.5

MSST

L 66-71

−16.5

ALST

W 88-67

+3.5

UNT

W 57-48

−32.5

RICE

W 76-70

+1.5

FAU

L 78-89

+14.5

TEM

W 55-53

−35.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+16.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−4.5

WICH

L 59-74

−12.5

FAU

W 92-65

+4.5

TULN

L 76-78

+2.5

UAB

W 90-80

+14.5

CLT

W 77-54

−13.5

UNT

L 69-76

+6.5

USU

L 75-99

+18.5

USF

L 66-87

−10.5

UAB

L 67-78

−7.5

WICH

L 82-88

+20.5

ECU

L 68-84

−0.5

USF

L 89-96

+21.5

TULN

W 96-95

+36.5

TULN

L 69-81

−1.5

over 16under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vanderbilt

36 games played

Straight up

27-9

75% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-975%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W W W L L L W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O O U O O U O O U U U O O U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIP	W 105-61	-26.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 8	@UCF	W 105-93	-10.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 12	vsEKU	W 92-62	-28.5	W +1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsUAPB	W 104-75	-41.5	L −12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 20	vsTXSO	W 109-74	-36.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsWKU	W 83-78	-18.5	L −13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsVCU	W 89-74	-6.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsSMC	W 96-71	-4.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	vsSMU	W 88-69	-10.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 157
Dec 13	vsCARK	W 83-72	-36.5	L −25.5	158.5	U 155
Dec 17	@MEM	W 77-70	-9.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 21	@WAKE	W 98-67	-5.5	W +25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 29	vsNHVN	W 96-53	-39.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 3	@SC	W 83-71	-9.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 7	vsALA	W 96-90	-3.5	W +2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsLSU	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	@TEX	L 64-80	-3.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsFLA	L 94-98	+1.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	@ARK	L 68-93	+1.5	L −23.5	173.5	U 161
Jan 24	@MSST	W 88-56	-7.5	W +24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 27	vsUK	W 80-55	-5.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsMISS	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsOU	L 91-92	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 10	@AUB	W 84-76	+3.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	vsTA&M	W 82-69	-7.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 151
Feb 18	@MIZ	L 80-81	-3.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsTENN	L 65-69	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 25	vsUGA	W 88-80	-7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 168
Feb 28	@UK	L 77-91	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@MISS	W 89-86	-7.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	@TENN	W 86-82	+2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 13	vsTENN	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsFLA	W 91-74	+7.5	W +24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 15	vsARK	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 161
Mar 19	vsMCN	W 78-68	-12.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 146
Mar 21	vsNEB	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+17.5

UCF

W 105-93

+1.5

EKU

W 92-62

+1.5

UAPB

W 104-75

−12.5

TXSO

W 109-74

−1.5

WKU

W 83-78

−13.5

VCU

W 89-74

+8.5

SMC

W 96-71

+20.5

SMU

W 88-69

+8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−25.5

MEM

W 77-70

−2.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+25.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

+2.5

ALA

W 96-90

+2.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

−2.5

ARK

L 68-93

−23.5

MSST

W 88-56

+24.5

W 80-55

+19.5

MISS

W 71-68

−7.5

L 91-92

−12.5

AUB

W 84-76

+11.5

TA&M

W 82-69

+5.5

MIZ

L 80-81

−4.5

TENN

L 65-69

−6.5

UGA

W 88-80

+0.5

L 77-91

−12.5

MISS

W 89-86

−4.5

TENN

W 86-82

+6.5

TENN

W 75-68

+8.5

FLA

W 91-74

+24.5

ARK

L 75-86

−13.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+11.5

UCF

W 105-93

+31.5

EKU

W 92-62

−14.5

UAPB

W 104-75

+6.5

TXSO

W 109-74

+18.5

WKU

W 83-78

−7.5

VCU

W 89-74

+1.5

SMC

W 96-71

+17.5

SMU

W 88-69

−8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−3.5

MEM

W 77-70

−12.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+0.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

−1.5

ALA

W 96-90

+9.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

+27.5

ARK

L 68-93

−12.5

MSST

W 88-56

−15.5

W 80-55

−20.5

MISS

W 71-68

−10.5

L 91-92

+23.5

AUB

W 84-76

−1.5

TA&M

W 82-69

−14.5

MIZ

L 80-81

+6.5

TENN

L 65-69

−16.5

UGA

W 88-80

+4.5

L 77-91

+10.5

MISS

W 89-86

+19.5

TENN

W 86-82

+21.5

TENN

W 75-68

−4.5

FLA

W 91-74

+3.5

ARK

L 75-86

−4.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−0.5

over 17under 19avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Memphis 1, Vanderbilt 1, even 3

MemphisBetterVanderbilt

G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80

VANSmall

G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100

G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84

Even

G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86

G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83

MEMSmall

F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55

F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

Even

F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90

F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68

Even

C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61

MemphisBetterVanderbilt

MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6

Even

VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7

MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5

VANSmall

VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6

Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players

VANBig

Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players

Bench+4.4 · 5 players

MEMBig

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Memphis

Guards

L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew

Forwards

T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min

Vanderbilt

Guards

T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew

Forwards

S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew

Centers

B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM75.2 #158

VAN85.7 #14

Points per possession

MEM1.04 #264

VAN1.21 #9

Pace (possessions)

MEM71.9 #37

VAN70.9 #80

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM48.7 #298

VAN55.3 #31

3-point %

MEM31.6 #303

VAN35.6 #86

3-point attempt rate

MEM33.7 #305

VAN44.2 #85

Free throw rate

MEM34.7 #190

VAN38.1 #101

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM18.9 #316

VAN13.5 #15

Offensive rebound rate

MEM35.3 #41

VAN31.2 #158

Assists per game

MEM13.3 #193

VAN16.3 #40

Defense

Points allowed

MEM76.6 #234

VAN75.0 #187

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.07 #124

VAN1.06 #99

Opponent effective FG%

MEM48.7 #55

VAN49.0 #67

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.6 #22

VAN32.6 #96

Turnovers forced

MEM18.6 #69

VAN17.7 #112

Defensive rebound rate

MEM64.3 #350

VAN68.5 #231

Steals per game

MEM8.4 #19

VAN7.9 #40

Blocks per game

MEM4.3 #49

VAN4.5 #36

MEM		VAN
Scoring
75.2 #158	Points per game	85.7 #14
1.04 #264	Points per possession	1.21 #9
71.9 #37	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #80
Shooting
48.7 #298	Effective FG%	55.3 #31
31.6 #303	3-point %	35.6 #86
33.7 #305	3-point attempt rate	44.2 #85
34.7 #190	Free throw rate	38.1 #101
Possessions
18.9 #316	Turnover rate	13.5 #15
35.3 #41	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #158
13.3 #193	Assists per game	16.3 #40
Defense
76.6 #234	Points allowed	75.0 #187
1.07 #124	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #99
48.7 #55	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #67
30.6 #22	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #96
18.6 #69	Turnovers forced	17.7 #112
64.3 #350	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #231
8.4 #19	Steals per game	7.9 #40
4.3 #49	Blocks per game	4.5 #36

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulane69–81
W@ Tulane96–95
Lvs South Florida89–96
L@ East Carolina68–84
Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nebraska72–74
Wvs McNeese78–68
Lvs Arkansas75–86
Wvs Florida91–74
Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.

Memphis Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Memphis

Vanderbilt

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Memphis

Vanderbilt