Evansville Purple Aces at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:30 PM ETMurphy Center · at MTSU

#154MTSUMTSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Evansville and MTSU
EVAN	This season	MTSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTSU 78–69 · win probability MTSU 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

EVAN 0, MTSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MTSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1; MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0

MTSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EVAN 22.0%, MTSU 30.7%. Defensive: EVAN 69.8%, MTSU 71.5%

MTSUBig

Three-pointers

EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%; MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 43.1% and 45.3% of their shots

MTSUBig

EVAN offense vs MTSU defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings

MTSUSmall

MTSU offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

MTSUSmall

Home court

MTSU at home. This season: MTSU 0-0 at home, EVAN 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EVAN 19.1%, MTSU 17.1%. Forced: EVAN 15.4%, MTSU 14.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: EVAN 29.8, MTSU 32.7. Allowed: EVAN 31.4, MTSU 35.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EVAN 35%, MTSU 30%. Transfers in: EVAN 2, MTSU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: EVAN plays 67.9 a game (232nd fastest), MTSU 68.3 (216th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

EVAN has played the 127th-hardest schedule, MTSU the 132nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MTSU -8.8	—
Total	—	146.3	—
Projected score	—	EVAN 68.8 · MTSU 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTSU -5.1	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	EVAN 31.7 · MTSU 36.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EVAN WLWLW	14-16	47%	7-6	—
MTSU WLWWL	13-16	45%	4-8	—

Venue/role: EVAN away; MTSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EVAN OOOOU	15-15	50%	5-25
MTSU OOUUO	15-14	52%	14-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EVAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Evansville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs M-OH	W72–64WU
Nov 17	vs LEM	No recent meeting
Nov 22	@ MEM	No recent meeting

MTSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs SEMO	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ GASO	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs TEM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EVAN 0–2 MTSUMTSU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MTSU has won the last 2 meetings · EVAN 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	MTSU 77 @ EVAN 72	EVAN -2.5	MTSU W
Nov 13, 2024-25	EVAN 63 @ MTSU 80	MTSU -10.5	MTSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Evansville

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 28	@DRKE	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	@UNI	L 55-71	+11.5	L −4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 3	vsINST	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 6	@VAL	L 63-70	+8.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	vsILST	W 88-80	+10.5	W +18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	@SIU	L 60-86	+12.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 18	vsUIC	L 46-84	+8.5	L −29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	@MUR	L 75-88	+15.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 25	@BEL	L 64-98	+18.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsVAL	W 80-79	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 1	vsSIU	L 67-81	+9.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUNI	L 59-68	+13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+4.5

UNI

L 55-71

−4.5

INST

L 63-84

−19.5

VAL

L 63-70

+1.5

ILST

W 88-80

+18.5

SIU

L 60-86

−13.5

UIC

L 46-84

−29.5

MUR

L 75-88

+2.5

BEL

L 64-98

−15.5

VAL

W 80-79

+6.5

SIU

L 67-81

−4.5

UNI

L 59-68

+4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+16.5

UNI

L 55-71

−2.5

INST

L 63-84

+1.5

VAL

L 63-70

−3.5

ILST

W 88-80

+30.5

SIU

L 60-86

+3.5

UIC

L 46-84

−10.5

MUR

L 75-88

+9.5

BEL

L 64-98

+9.5

VAL

W 80-79

+21.5

SIU

L 67-81

+8.5

UNI

L 59-68

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

MTSU

29 games played

Straight up

14-15

48% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1548%

W L W L L W L W L W W L W L W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W L L W W L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1452%

O U O O U U U U U O U O U U O U O U O O O O U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMCN	L 62-72	+9.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	vsUAB	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsBEL	L 62-83	+3.5	L −17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsKENN	W 68-67	-3.5	L −2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 29	@HOU	L 60-69	+25.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 2	vsLT	W 88-51	-6.5	W +30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	vsSHSU	W 68-67	-4.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 135
Jan 8	@UTEP	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	@NMSU	W 59-55	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 114
Jan 14	@LT	L 58-59	-3.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	vsMOST	W 90-87	-5.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 177
Jan 23	@JXST	L 58-75	-1.5	L −18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsLIB	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	136.5	O 146
Jan 31	vsWKU	L 60-65	-6.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsFIU	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 172
Feb 7	@DEL	L 88-89	-5.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 177
Feb 12	@KENN	W 90-87	+3.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 177
Feb 14	@WKU	L 80-82	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@SHSU	L 70-78	+3.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 21	vsDEL	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 144
Feb 26	vsUTEP	W 77-67	-8.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsNMSU	W 86-85	-5.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 171
Mar 5	@FIU	W 73-67	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	U 140
Mar 7	@MOST	W 75-63	+2.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 138
Mar 12	vsLT	L 69-80	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

MCN

L 62-72

−0.5

UAB

W 76-61

+16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−17.5

KENN

W 68-67

−2.5

HOU

L 60-69

+16.5

W 88-51

+30.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−3.5

UTEP

L 80-83

−6.5

NMSU

W 59-55

+7.5

L 58-59

−4.5

MOST

W 90-87

−2.5

JXST

L 58-75

−18.5

LIB

L 65-81

−14.5

WKU

L 60-65

−11.5

FIU

L 84-88

−9.5

DEL

L 88-89

−6.5

KENN

W 90-87

+6.5

WKU

L 80-82

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−4.5

DEL

W 78-66

+1.5

UTEP

W 77-67

+1.5

NMSU

W 86-85

−4.5

FIU

W 73-67

+7.5

MOST

W 75-63

+14.5

L 69-80

−12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

MCN

L 62-72

−13.5

UAB

W 76-61

−16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−8.5

KENN

W 68-67

−25.5

HOU

L 60-69

−9.5

W 88-51

+4.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−21.5

UTEP

L 80-83

+25.5

NMSU

W 59-55

−30.5

L 58-59

−14.5

MOST

W 90-87

+39.5

JXST

L 58-75

−0.5

LIB

L 65-81

+9.5

WKU

L 60-65

−15.5

FIU

L 84-88

+17.5

DEL

L 88-89

+43.5

KENN

W 90-87

+28.5

WKU

L 80-82

+16.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−3.5

DEL

W 78-66

+6.5

UTEP

W 77-67

+4.5

NMSU

W 86-85

+22.5

FIU

W 73-67

−13.5

MOST

W 75-63

−7.5

L 69-80

+14.5

over 15under 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Evansville 1, MTSU 1, even 3

EvansvilleBetterMTSU

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

Even

G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

EVANBig

G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

Even

F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

MTSUSmall

C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26

EvansvilleBetterMTSU

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

MTSUSmall

MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

MTSUSmall

MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

EVANSmall

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestEVAN betterMTSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

MTSU

Guards

K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew

Forwards

O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew

Centers

L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EVAN65.8 #347

MTSU73.5 #216

Points per possession

EVAN0.97 #344

MTSU1.08 #195

Pace (possessions)

EVAN67.9 #232

MTSU68.3 #216

Shooting

Effective FG%

EVAN49.3 #280

MTSU51.6 #167

3-point %

EVAN32.3 #268

MTSU33.8 #183

3-point attempt rate

EVAN43.1 #109

MTSU45.3 #61

Free throw rate

EVAN29.8 #315

MTSU32.7 #245

Possessions

Turnover rate

EVAN19.1 #324

MTSU17.1 #214

Offensive rebound rate

EVAN22.0 #355

MTSU30.7 #171

Assists per game

EVAN12.6 #245

MTSU13.7 #168

Defense

Points allowed

EVAN78.3 #275

MTSU74.6 #180

Points allowed per possession

EVAN1.15 #329

MTSU1.09 #205

Opponent effective FG%

EVAN55.1 #332

MTSU51.0 #155

Opponent 3-point %

EVAN37.6 #351

MTSU34.0 #180

Turnovers forced

EVAN15.4 #258

MTSU14.9 #293

Defensive rebound rate

EVAN69.8 #170

MTSU71.5 #83

Steals per game

EVAN5.0 #335

MTSU5.8 #265

Blocks per game

EVAN3.3 #171

MTSU4.0 #76

EVAN		MTSU
Scoring
65.8 #347	Points per game	73.5 #216
0.97 #344	Points per possession	1.08 #195
67.9 #232	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #216
Shooting
49.3 #280	Effective FG%	51.6 #167
32.3 #268	3-point %	33.8 #183
43.1 #109	3-point attempt rate	45.3 #61
29.8 #315	Free throw rate	32.7 #245
Possessions
19.1 #324	Turnover rate	17.1 #214
22.0 #355	Offensive rebound rate	30.7 #171
12.6 #245	Assists per game	13.7 #168
Defense
78.3 #275	Points allowed	74.6 #180
1.15 #329	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #205
55.1 #332	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #155
37.6 #351	Opponent 3-point %	34.0 #180
15.4 #258	Turnovers forced	14.9 #293
69.8 #170	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #83
5.0 #335	Steals per game	5.8 #265
3.3 #171	Blocks per game	4.0 #76

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
Lvs S Illinois67–81
Wvs Valparaiso80–79
L@ Belmont64–98
L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
W@ Missouri St75–63
W@ FIU73–67
Wvs New Mexico St86–85
Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.

Evansville Purple Aces at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Evansville

MTSU

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Evansville

MTSU