Texas State Bobcats at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:30 PM ETUTRGV Fieldhouse · at UT Rio Grande

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Texas St and UT Rio Grande
TXST	This season	RGV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 77–70 · win probability TXST 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

TXST 6, RGV 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RGVBig

Three-pointers

TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%; RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 24.6% and 43.7% of their shots

TXSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXST 33.9%, RGV 28.2%. Defensive: TXST 71.6%, RGV 67.9%

TXSTBig

RGV offense vs TXST defense

Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings

RGVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0; RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8

TXSTBig

TXST offense vs RGV defense

Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings

TXSTBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXST 69%, RGV 9%. Transfers in: TXST 5, RGV 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TXSTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXST 18.7%, RGV 18.5%. Forced: TXST 18.5%, RGV 16.2%

TXSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXST 34.0, RGV 28.9. Allowed: TXST 39.0, RGV 39.0

RGVSmall

Home court

RGV at home. This season: RGV 0-0 at home, TXST 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

TXST has played the 298th-hardest schedule, RGV the 274th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: TXST plays 68.2 a game (223rd fastest), RGV 67.3 (268th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TXST -7.4	—
Total	—	147.0	—
Projected score	—	TXST 77.2 · RGV 69.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TXST -4.5	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	TXST 36.6 · RGV 32.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LWLWL	14-16	47%	4-8	—
RGV WLWWW	18-13	58%	5-8	—

Venue/role: TXST away; RGV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OOUUO	16-14	53%	17-13
RGV UUUOO	13-18	42%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
RGV	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs USM	L77–81LO
Nov 15	@ UTSA	W80–69WO
Nov 18	vs UIW	W75–57WO

UT Rio Grande

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ UTA	L50–58LU
Nov 21	@ APSU	W63–50WU
Nov 28	@ UNLV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas St

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L W W W W L L L W L W L W L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U O O U U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 18	vsACU	W 63-49	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 21	vsLR	W 65-56	-5.5	W +3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsSEA	L 52-66	+7.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsLEH	L 74-78	-6.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 3	@RICE	L 72-77	+3.5	L −1.5	133.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsSOU	W 86-83	-3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 17	vsARST	L 70-89	+4.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUSA	W 67-65	-3.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 132
Dec 31	@TROY	L 80-100	+8.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 180
Jan 3	@ULM	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@USM	L 70-80	+2.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	@ARST	L 82-83	+11.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 165
Jan 14	vsUL	W 59-54	-8.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsUSM	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@CCU	L 70-72	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	@JMU	L 57-82	+5.5	L −19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 28	vsMRSH	W 72-68	+3.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsODU	W 81-64	-2.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	@GASO	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsWMU	W 77-61	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTROY	W 74-62	+5.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsULM	W 95-84	-14.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 19	@USA	W 90-82	+3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 172
Feb 21	@UL	L 54-67	-3.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 27	vsAPP	W 60-57	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 6	vsUSM	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

ACU

W 63-49

+12.5

W 65-56

+3.5

SEA

L 52-66

−6.5

LEH

L 74-78

−10.5

RICE

L 72-77

−1.5

SOU

W 86-83

−0.5

ARST

L 70-89

−14.5

USA

W 67-65

−1.5

TROY

L 80-100

−11.5

ULM

W 84-79

−5.5

USM

L 70-80

−7.5

ARST

L 82-83

+10.5

W 59-54

−3.5

USM

W 74-67

+4.5

CCU

L 70-72

−0.5

JMU

L 57-82

−19.5

MRSH

W 72-68

+7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+14.5

GASO

W 77-71

+10.5

WMU

W 77-61

+9.5

TROY

W 74-62

+17.5

ULM

W 95-84

−3.5

USA

W 90-82

+11.5

L 54-67

−16.5

APP

W 60-57

+4.5

USM

L 77-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

ACU

W 63-49

−26.5

W 65-56

−10.5

SEA

L 52-66

−18.5

LEH

L 74-78

+16.5

RICE

L 72-77

+15.5

SOU

W 86-83

+26.5

ARST

L 70-89

+7.5

USA

W 67-65

−4.5

TROY

L 80-100

+34.5

ULM

W 84-79

+12.5

USM

L 70-80

+5.5

ARST

L 82-83

+8.5

W 59-54

−20.5

USM

W 74-67

+0.5

CCU

L 70-72

+1.5

JMU

L 57-82

−4.5

MRSH

W 72-68

−7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+1.5

GASO

W 77-71

−3.5

WMU

W 77-61

−8.5

TROY

W 74-62

−4.5

ULM

W 95-84

+29.5

USA

W 90-82

+34.5

L 54-67

−13.5

APP

W 60-57

−18.5

USM

L 77-81

+17.5

over 16under 14avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

UT Rio Grande

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L L L L W L W L L L W L L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W W L L W L W L W L L L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O O U U U U U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O O U U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BAY	L 81-96	+24.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 8	@SUU	W 95-72	-1.5	W +21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 11	@BOIS	L 65-85	+16.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 22	@MOST	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	@ILL	L 73-87	+33.5	W +19.5	164.5	U 160
Dec 3	@SFA	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 133
Dec 7	vsAPSU	W 63-50	-2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 11	vsUTA	L 50-58	-4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 16	@LAM	W 83-72	+3.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 155
Dec 29	vsNOLA	L 69-85	-6.5	L −22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	vsNICH	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsAMCC	L 59-63	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 122
Jan 5	vsUIW	W 80-67	-1.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 147
Jan 10	@ETAM	L 69-77	-3.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 12	@NWST	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	vsMCN	W 79-76	+9.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsSELA	W 68-65	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	@HCU	W 68-51	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 26	@AMCC	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 119
Jan 31	@UIW	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 199
Feb 2	vsHCU	W 74-57	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@NOLA	W 95-76	-1.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	@NICH	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsSFA	L 57-66	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 123
Feb 16	vsLAM	W 70-65	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 21	@SELA	W 96-75	-4.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	@MCN	L 68-75	+11.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	vsETAM	W 63-55	-10.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 118
Mar 2	vsNWST	W 74-62	-9.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 9	vsNICH	W 86-68	-5.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 154
Mar 10	vsMCN	L 80-84	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+9.5

SUU

W 95-72

+21.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−3.5

MOST

L 67-74

−3.5

ILL

L 73-87

+19.5

SFA

L 60-73

−6.5

APSU

W 63-50

+10.5

UTA

L 50-58

−12.5

LAM

W 83-72

+14.5

NOLA

L 69-85

−22.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−6.5

UIW

W 80-67

+11.5

ETAM

L 69-77

−11.5

NWST

L 63-64

−3.5

MCN

W 79-76

+12.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

+14.5

AMCC

W 64-55

+11.5

UIW

W 106-93

+11.5

HCU

W 74-57

+7.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+17.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−7.5

LAM

W 70-65

−1.5

SELA

W 96-75

+16.5

MCN

L 68-75

+4.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−2.5

NWST

W 74-62

+2.5

NICH

W 86-68

+12.5

MCN

L 80-84

+4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+22.5

SUU

W 95-72

+6.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−11.5

MOST

L 67-74

−8.5

ILL

L 73-87

−4.5

SFA

L 60-73

−10.5

APSU

W 63-50

−38.5

UTA

L 50-58

−37.5

LAM

W 83-72

+15.5

NOLA

L 69-85

+1.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−15.5

UIW

W 80-67

+0.5

ETAM

L 69-77

+0.5

NWST

L 63-64

−16.5

MCN

W 79-76

+8.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

−21.5

AMCC

W 64-55

−16.5

UIW

W 106-93

+58.5

HCU

W 74-57

−10.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+19.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−21.5

LAM

W 70-65

−6.5

SELA

W 96-75

+32.5

MCN

L 68-75

−3.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−28.5

NWST

W 74-62

−3.5

NICH

W 86-68

+10.5

MCN

L 80-84

+23.5

over 13under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas St 2, UT Rio Grande 0, even 3

Texas StBetterUT Rio Grande

G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56

TXSTSmall

G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41

G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84

TXSTBig

G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2

G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

Even

G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75

F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94

No call

G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89

No call

G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

Texas StBetterUT Rio Grande

TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4

TXSTBig

RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8

TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4

TXSTBig

RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2

Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players

TXSTBig

Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players

Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.3 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestTXST betterRGV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas St

Guards

M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR

Forwards

D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew

Centers

R. Fields16 min

UT Rio Grande

Guards

D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew

Forwards

T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXST71.9 #247

RGV73.7 #210

Points per possession

TXST1.06 #230

RGV1.10 #137

Pace (possessions)

TXST68.2 #223

RGV67.3 #268

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXST50.0 #238

RGV54.8 #44

3-point %

TXST32.2 #271

RGV36.8 #35

3-point attempt rate

TXST24.6 #364

RGV43.7 #95

Free throw rate

TXST34.0 #211

RGV28.9 #332

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXST18.7 #309

RGV18.5 #296

Offensive rebound rate

TXST33.9 #68

RGV28.2 #257

Assists per game

TXST12.7 #239

RGV15.7 #58

Defense

Points allowed

TXST72.5 #117

RGV70.6 #67

Points allowed per possession

TXST1.06 #106

RGV1.05 #86

Opponent effective FG%

TXST52.0 #210

RGV47.8 #38

Opponent 3-point %

TXST35.7 #293

RGV30.4 #16

Turnovers forced

TXST18.5 #75

RGV16.2 #210

Defensive rebound rate

TXST71.6 #81

RGV67.9 #266

Steals per game

TXST7.9 #41

RGV5.9 #243

Blocks per game

TXST3.6 #120

RGV2.8 #266

TXST		RGV
Scoring
71.9 #247	Points per game	73.7 #210
1.06 #230	Points per possession	1.10 #137
68.2 #223	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #268
Shooting
50.0 #238	Effective FG%	54.8 #44
32.2 #271	3-point %	36.8 #35
24.6 #364	3-point attempt rate	43.7 #95
34.0 #211	Free throw rate	28.9 #332
Possessions
18.7 #309	Turnover rate	18.5 #296
33.9 #68	Offensive rebound rate	28.2 #257
12.7 #239	Assists per game	15.7 #58
Defense
72.5 #117	Points allowed	70.6 #67
1.06 #106	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #86
52.0 #210	Opponent effective FG%	47.8 #38
35.7 #293	Opponent 3-point %	30.4 #16
18.5 #75	Turnovers forced	16.2 #210
71.6 #81	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #266
7.9 #41	Steals per game	5.9 #243
3.6 #120	Blocks per game	2.8 #266

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss77–81
Wvs App State60–57
L@ Louisiana54–67
W@ South Alabama90–82
Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs McNeese80–84
Wvs Nicholls86–68
Wvs N'Western St74–62
Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

Texas State Bobcats at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas St

UT Rio Grande

Texas St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Texas St

UT Rio Grande