Illinois Fighting Illini at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ETUnited Supermarkets Arena · at Texas Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Illinois and Texas Tech
ILL	This season	TTU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 80–77 · win probability ILL 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ILL 2, TTU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ILL 39.2%, TTU 33.3%. Defensive: ILL 73.3%, TTU 69.4%

ILLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ILL 33.2, TTU 27.7. Allowed: ILL 19.7, TTU 31.4

TTUSmall

Three-pointers

ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%; TTU hits 39.1% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 49.7% and 47.6% of their shots

TTUSmall

Home court

TTU at home. This season: TTU 0-0 at home, ILL 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ILL plays 66.5 a game (292nd fastest), TTU 68.2 (222nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ILL 63%, TTU 45%. Transfers in: ILL 1, TTU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ILL 13.1%, TTU 15.8%. Forced: ILL 11.6%, TTU 14.8%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3; TTU 56.1 and allows 49.7

Even

ILL offense vs TTU defense

Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ILL has played the 18th-hardest schedule, TTU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

TTU offense vs ILL defense

Offense 12th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILL -2.7	—
Total	—	156.7	—
Projected score	—	ILL 79.7 · TTU 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -1.7	—
1H total	73.2	—
1H projected score	ILL 37.5 · TTU 35.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWWWL	22-15	59%	6-4	—
TTU LLLWL	17-17	50%	9-7	—

Venue/role: ILL away; TTU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OUUUU	15-22	41%	28-9
TTU UUUOU	15-19	44%	23-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TTU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs SHSU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ DUKE	L67–110LO
Nov 20	vs EIU	W112–67WO

Texas Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs STO	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs NOLA	W82–50WU
Nov 24	vs LOU	W70–38WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ILL 1–0 TTUILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ILL 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	TTU 77 @ ILL 81	ILL -3.5	ILL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois

37 games played

Straight up

28-9

76% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-976%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PSU	W 73-65	-14.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsRUTG	W 81-55	-22.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	@IOWA	W 75-69	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@NU	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsMINN	W 77-67	-15.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 21	vsMD	W 89-70	-18.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@PUR	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 29	vsWASH	W 75-66	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 1	@NEB	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 4	vsNU	W 84-44	-16.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 7	@MSU	L 82-85	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 10	vsWIS	L 90-92	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 15	vsIU	W 71-51	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 18	@USC	W 101-65	-8.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	@UCLA	L 94-95	-6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 27	vsMICH	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 154
Mar 3	vsORE	W 80-54	-17.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 8	@MD	W 78-72	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsWIS	L 88-91	-8.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 19	vsPENN	W 105-70	-25.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsVCU	W 76-55	-12.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Mar 26	vsHOU	W 65-55	+2.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 120
Mar 28	vsIOWA	W 71-59	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 130
Apr 4	vsCONN	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

PSU

W 73-65

−6.5

RUTG

W 81-55

+3.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+4.5

W 79-68

+1.5

MINN

W 77-67

−5.5

W 89-70

+0.5

PUR

W 88-82

+11.5

WASH

W 75-66

−3.5

NEB

W 78-69

+10.5

W 84-44

+23.5

MSU

L 82-85

−1.5

WIS

L 90-92

−11.5

W 71-51

+11.5

USC

W 101-65

+27.5

UCLA

L 94-95

−7.5

MICH

L 70-84

−12.5

ORE

W 80-54

+8.5

W 78-72

−8.5

WIS

L 88-91

−11.5

PENN

W 105-70

+9.5

VCU

W 76-55

+8.5

HOU

W 65-55

+12.5

IOWA

W 71-59

+5.5

CONN

L 62-71

−10.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

PSU

W 73-65

−18.5

RUTG

W 81-55

−13.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+1.5

W 79-68

−4.5

MINN

W 77-67

+1.5

W 89-70

+6.5

PUR

W 88-82

+17.5

WASH

W 75-66

−12.5

NEB

W 78-69

−7.5

W 84-44

−21.5

MSU

L 82-85

+24.5

WIS

L 90-92

+28.5

W 71-51

−31.5

USC

W 101-65

+14.5

UCLA

L 94-95

+42.5

MICH

L 70-84

−5.5

ORE

W 80-54

−13.5

W 78-72

+4.5

WIS

L 88-91

+20.5

PENN

W 105-70

+24.5

VCU

W 76-55

−20.5

HOU

W 65-55

−21.5

IOWA

W 71-59

−8.5

CONN

L 62-71

−6.5

over 15under 22avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas Tech

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

W W L W W L W W W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L L L L L W L W L L W W W W L L W W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1944%

O O U U O U U U U O O O U O U U O U O O O U U U U U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLIN	W 98-60	-29.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 7	vsSHSU	W 98-77	-31.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 11	@ILL	L 77-81	+3.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsMILW	W 80-63	-27.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsWAKE	W 84-83	-9.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsPUR	L 56-86	+3.5	L −26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsNOLA	W 82-50	-29.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 132
Nov 30	vsWYO	W 76-72	-19.5	L −15.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 7	vsLSU	W 82-58	-5.5	W +18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsARK	L 86-93	-2.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 16	vsUNCO	W 101-90	-25.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 191
Dec 20	vsDUKE	W 82-81	+9.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 28	vsWIN	W 87-57	-17.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsOKST	W 102-80	-12.5	W +9.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 6	@HOU	L 65-69	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@COLO	W 73-71	-5.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 144
Jan 14	vsUTAH	W 88-74	-17.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsBYU	W 84-71	-2.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 155
Jan 20	@BAY	W 92-73	-1.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsHOU	W 90-86	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 31	@UCF	L 80-88	-5.5	L −13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 2	vsKU	L 61-64	-3.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 8	@WVU	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsCOLO	W 78-44	-13.5	W +20.5	155.5	U 122
Feb 14	@ARIZ	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	156.5	U 153
Feb 17	@ASU	L 67-72	-7.5	L −12.5	156.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsKSU	W 100-72	-12.5	W +15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 24	vsCIN	W 80-68	-6.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 28	@ISU	W 82-73	+10.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 155
Mar 3	vsTCU	L 65-73	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 138
Mar 7	@BYU	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 158
Mar 12	vsISU	L 53-75	+7.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 20	vsAKR	W 91-71	-6.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 22	vsALA	L 65-90	+1.5	L −23.5	164.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+8.5

SHSU

W 98-77

−10.5

ILL

L 77-81

−0.5

MILW

W 80-63

−10.5

WAKE

W 84-83

−8.5

PUR

L 56-86

−26.5

NOLA

W 82-50

+2.5

WYO

W 76-72

−15.5

LSU

W 82-58

+18.5

ARK

L 86-93

−9.5

UNCO

W 101-90

−14.5

DUKE

W 82-81

+10.5

WIN

W 87-57

+12.5

OKST

W 102-80

+9.5

HOU

L 65-69

+3.5

COLO

W 73-71

−3.5

UTAH

W 88-74

−3.5

BYU

W 84-71

+10.5

BAY

W 92-73

+17.5

HOU

W 90-86

+5.5

UCF

L 80-88

−13.5

L 61-64

−6.5

WVU

W 70-63

+2.5

COLO

W 78-44

+20.5

ARIZ

W 78-75

+11.5

ASU

L 67-72

−12.5

KSU

W 100-72

+15.5

CIN

W 80-68

+5.5

ISU

W 82-73

+19.5

TCU

L 65-73

−16.5

BYU

L 76-82

−3.5

ISU

L 53-75

−14.5

AKR

W 91-71

+13.5

ALA

L 65-90

−23.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+11.5

SHSU

W 98-77

+18.5

ILL

L 77-81

−10.5

MILW

W 80-63

−22.5

WAKE

W 84-83

+6.5

PUR

L 56-86

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-50

−25.5

WYO

W 76-72

−4.5

LSU

W 82-58

−14.5

ARK

L 86-93

+23.5

UNCO

W 101-90

+38.5

DUKE

W 82-81

+10.5

WIN

W 87-57

−19.5

OKST

W 102-80

+14.5

HOU

L 65-69

−8.5

COLO

W 73-71

−17.5

UTAH

W 88-74

+2.5

BYU

W 84-71

−10.5

BAY

W 92-73

+10.5

HOU

W 90-86

+34.5

UCF

L 80-88

+8.5

L 61-64

−30.5

WVU

W 70-63

−6.5

COLO

W 78-44

−33.5

ARIZ

W 78-75

−3.5

ASU

L 67-72

−17.5

KSU

W 100-72

+13.5

CIN

W 80-68

+4.5

ISU

W 82-73

+9.5

TCU

L 65-73

−9.5

BYU

L 76-82

−1.5

ISU

L 53-75

−15.5

AKR

W 91-71

+7.5

ALA

L 65-90

−9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Illinois 0, Texas Tech 1, even 4

IllinoisBetterTexas Tech

G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86

Even

G C. Davis TR20.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 91

G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95

Even

G D. Atwell13.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 88

F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94

Even

G D. Gibbs-Lawhorn TR20.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 95

F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

TTUBig

F J. Toppin21.8 pts · 10.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 100

C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

Even

F D. Williams TR14 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76

IllinoisBetterTexas Tech

ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7

Even

TTU defense12th of 366 · +6.6

ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4

Even

TTU offense12th of 366 · +9.9

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

TTUBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players

TTUBig

Frontcourt+10.8 · 2 players

Bench+2.9 · 3 players

TTUBig

Bench+7.2 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestILL betterTTU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Illinois

Guards

S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew

Centers

T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min

Texas Tech

Guards

C. Davis39 min · TRD. Atwell35 minD. Gibbs-Lawhorn35 min · TRD. Dennis24 min · TRD. SpearNewA. BarrettNew

Forwards

J. Toppin35 minD. Williams30 min · TRJ. Stillwell28 min · TRJ. Moseley14 minM. Akuentok6 minL. HooverNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ILL83.2 #24

TTU80.3 #62

Points per possession

ILL1.25 #1

TTU1.18 #35

Pace (possessions)

ILL66.5 #292

TTU68.2 #222

Shooting

Effective FG%

ILL54.7 #46

TTU56.1 #21

3-point %

ILL34.5 #142

TTU39.1 #4

3-point attempt rate

ILL49.7 #15

TTU47.6 #29

Free throw rate

ILL33.2 #232

TTU27.7 #347

Possessions

Turnover rate

ILL13.1 #9

TTU15.8 #123

Offensive rebound rate

ILL39.2 #3

TTU33.3 #82

Assists per game

ILL14.2 #133

TTU15.7 #59

Defense

Points allowed

ILL68.8 #45

TTU73.1 #134

Points allowed per possession

ILL1.03 #61

TTU1.07 #138

Opponent effective FG%

ILL47.3 #26

TTU49.7 #86

Opponent 3-point %

ILL31.3 #38

TTU32.1 #67

Turnovers forced

ILL11.6 #365

TTU14.8 #305

Defensive rebound rate

ILL73.3 #28

TTU69.4 #186

Steals per game

ILL3.7 #365

TTU6.0 #239

Blocks per game

ILL4.6 #28

TTU3.8 #103

ILL		TTU
Scoring
83.2 #24	Points per game	80.3 #62
1.25 #1	Points per possession	1.18 #35
66.5 #292	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #222
Shooting
54.7 #46	Effective FG%	56.1 #21
34.5 #142	3-point %	39.1 #4
49.7 #15	3-point attempt rate	47.6 #29
33.2 #232	Free throw rate	27.7 #347
Possessions
13.1 #9	Turnover rate	15.8 #123
39.2 #3	Offensive rebound rate	33.3 #82
14.2 #133	Assists per game	15.7 #59
Defense
68.8 #45	Points allowed	73.1 #134
1.03 #61	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #138
47.3 #26	Opponent effective FG%	49.7 #86
31.3 #38	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #67
11.6 #365	Turnovers forced	14.8 #305
73.3 #28	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #186
3.7 #365	Steals per game	6.0 #239
4.6 #28	Blocks per game	3.8 #103

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn62–71
Wvs Iowa71–59
Wvs Houston65–55
Wvs VCU76–55
Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.

Texas Tech

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama65–90
Wvs Akron91–71
Lvs Iowa State53–75
L@ BYU76–82
Lvs TCU65–73

A week or more of rest.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Texas Tech Red Raiders

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois

Texas Tech

Texas Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Illinois

Texas Tech