1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. SHSU @ ILL
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini

State Farm Center · at Illinois
#189SHSUSam Houston
@
#4ILLIllinois AP #3
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SHSUThis seasonILL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 95–61 · win probability ILL 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

SHSU 0, ILL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ILLBig
ILL offense vs SHSU defense
Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 228th, on the model’s ratings
ILLBig
SHSU offense vs ILL defense
Offense 154th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SHSU has played the 138th-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ILLBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SHSU 52.5 and allows 51.4; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SHSU plays 70.7 a game (88th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points
ILLSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SHSU 34.4, ILL 33.2. Allowed: SHSU 36.7, ILL 19.7
ILLSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SHSU 35.9%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: SHSU 69.9%, ILL 73.3%
ILLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SHSU 29%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: SHSU 2, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ILLSmall
Home court
ILL at home. This season: ILL 0-0 at home, SHSU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
SHSU hits 37.2% and allows 32.5%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 35.8% and 49.7% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SHSU 16.8%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: SHSU 16.1%, ILL 11.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ILL -34.7—
Total—156.0—
Projected score—SHSU 60.6 · ILL 95.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadILL -20.5—
1H total72.9—
1H projected scoreSHSU 26.2 · ILL 46.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: Sam Houston 0, Illinois 3, even 2
Sam HoustonBetterIllinois
G J. Begg10 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17
ILLBig
G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86
G J. Coleman8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 41
ILLBig
G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95
F E. St. Bernard TR5.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 78
ILLSmall
F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94
F M. Dann2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 58
Even
F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58
F R. Greppi TR0 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
Sam HoustonBetterIllinois
SHSU offense154th of 366 · -4.7
ILLBig
ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4
SHSU defense228th of 366 · -6.1
ILLBig
ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7
Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players
ILLBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+1.0 · 3 players
ILLBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+2.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSHSU betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Sam Houston
Guards
J. Begg27 minJ. Coleman22 minZ. PipkinNewA. McDowellNewN. NguyenNewK. PartainNew
Forwards
E. St. Bernard18 min · TRM. Dann9 minR. Greppi1 min · TRC. Sadibou NdiayeNewY. OkeNewA. LoustauNew
Illinois
Guards
S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew
Forwards
D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew
Centers
T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SHSUILL
Scoring
80.0 #67Points per game83.2 #24
1.13 #78Points per possession1.25 #1
70.7 #88Pace (possessions)66.5 #292
Shooting
52.5 #128Effective FG%54.7 #46
37.2 #243-point %34.5 #142
35.8 #2533-point attempt rate49.7 #15
34.4 #199Free throw rate33.2 #232
Possessions
16.8 #186Turnover rate13.1 #9
35.9 #25Offensive rebound rate39.2 #3
14.9 #95Assists per game14.2 #133
Defense
76.9 #237Points allowed68.8 #45
1.09 #191Points allowed per possession1.03 #61
51.4 #180Opponent effective FG%47.3 #26
32.5 #89Opponent 3-point %31.3 #38
16.1 #220Turnovers forced11.6 #365
69.9 #168Defensive rebound rate73.3 #28
7.0 #128Steals per game3.7 #365
2.6 #288Blocks per game4.6 #28
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sam Houston

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ New Mexico83–107
  • Lvs Kennesaw St73–79
  • Wvs New Mexico St69–61
  • L@ Liberty72–79
  • L@ Delaware80–83

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn62–71
  • Wvs Iowa71–59
  • Wvs Houston65–55
  • Wvs VCU76–55
  • Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.