1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. UNI @ MSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Northern Iowa Panthers at Michigan State Spartans

Breslin Center · at Michigan St
#131UNINorthern Iowa
@
#10MSUMichigan St AP #6
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNIThis seasonMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 83–57 · win probability MSU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

UNI 1, MSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSUBig
UNI offense vs MSU defense
Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
UNIBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNI 14.5%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: UNI 18.0%, MSU 14.9%
MSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNI 21.8%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: UNI 73.5%, MSU 77.6%
Context
Schedule so far
UNI has played the 133rd-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNI 25.6, MSU 35.9. Allowed: UNI 29.6, MSU 30.2
MSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNI 10%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: UNI 5, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MSUSmall
MSU offense vs UNI defense
Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings
MSUSmall
Home court
MSU at home. This season: MSU 0-0 at home, UNI 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UNI plays 63.9 a game (361st fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9
Even
Three-pointers
UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 39.1% and 36.4% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSU -26.7—
Total—140.1—
Projected score—UNI 56.7 · MSU 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSU -15.8—
1H total65.6—
1H projected scoreUNI 24.9 · MSU 40.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan St has the better starters

Position by position: Northern Iowa 1, Michigan St 3, even 1
Northern IowaBetterMichigan St
G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21
MSUBig
G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99
G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90
UNISmall
G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63
G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
MSUSmall
F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67
Even
F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53
F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
MSUBig
C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80
Northern IowaBetterMichigan St
UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3
MSUBig
MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3
UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3
MSUSmall
MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players
MSUBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players
MSUBig
Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players
Bench-1.6 · 2 players
MSUSmall
Bench+0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUNI betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Northern Iowa
Guards
T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew
Forwards
I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew
Michigan St
Guards
J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew
Forwards
C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min
Centers
A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNIMSU
Scoring
68.6 #303Points per game78.8 #84
1.08 #198Points per possession1.17 #40
63.9 #361Pace (possessions)67.3 #264
Shooting
53.8 #73Effective FG%53.8 #72
34.7 #1363-point %36.3 #47
39.1 #1893-point attempt rate36.4 #241
25.6 #362Free throw rate35.9 #157
Possessions
14.5 #41Turnover rate17.1 #217
21.8 #357Offensive rebound rate37.8 #10
14.6 #114Assists per game18.6 #4
Defense
62.5 #2Points allowed68.3 #37
0.98 #12Points allowed per possession1.02 #40
47.5 #31Opponent effective FG%48.9 #61
29.1 #3Opponent 3-point %33.0 #119
18.0 #97Turnovers forced14.9 #296
73.5 #24Defensive rebound rate77.6 #1
6.2 #212Steals per game5.1 #328
3.1 #211Blocks per game4.1 #59
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's53–79
  • Wvs UIC84–69
  • Wvs Bradley73–69
  • Wvs Illinois St74–52
  • Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn63–67
  • Wvs Louisville77–69
  • Wvs N Dakota St92–67
  • Lvs UCLA84–88
  • L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.