Tennessee State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETFood City Center · at Tennessee

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tennessee St and Tennessee
TNST	This season	TENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 94–60 · win probability TENN 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

TNST 1, TENN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

TNST has played the 345th-hardest schedule, TENN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TENNBig

TENN offense vs TNST defense

Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings

TENNBig

TNST offense vs TENN defense

Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TNSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TNST 16.7%, TENN 17.4%. Forced: TNST 19.8%, TENN 16.1%

TENNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6; TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8

TENNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TNST 33.4, TENN 37.4. Allowed: TNST 41.4, TENN 36.3

TENNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TNST 34.8%, TENN 44.7%. Defensive: TNST 69.4%, TENN 72.2%

TENNSmall

Three-pointers

TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%; TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 30.7% and 32.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: TNST plays 71.1 a game (66th fastest), TENN 68.1 (226th). Faster games mean more points

TENNSmall

Home court

TENN at home. This season: TENN 0-0 at home, TNST 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TNST 10%, TENN 13%. Transfers in: TNST 7, TENN 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TENN -34.4	—
Total	—	154.1	—
Projected score	—	TNST 59.9 · TENN 94.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TENN -20.3	—
1H total	72.0	—
1H projected score	TNST 25.8 · TENN 46.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNST WWWWL	18-12	60%	11-6	—
TENN LWWWL	17-20	46%	7-10	—

Venue/role: TNST away; TENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNST UUUOO	14-16	47%	20-10
TENN UUOUO	18-19	49%	25-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
TENN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ USF	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ OKST	No recent meeting
Dec 4	vs GRAM	No recent meeting

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs MSU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs CCU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs MD	W56–53LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TNST 0–1 TENNTENN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TNST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 20, 2025-26	TNST 60 @ TENN 89	TENN -31.5	TNST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee St

30 games played

Straight up

20-10

67% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1067%

L L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

O O U U U U U O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U O O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BEL	L 79-87	+13.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 16	@WKU	L 82-95	+12.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 20	@TENN	L 60-89	+31.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 25	@UNCA	W 75-73	+5.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	@UTC	W 70-64	+8.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 134
Dec 3	@AAMU	L 53-80	-4.5	L −31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 13	@UNLV	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 18	vsUTM	W 78-71	-2.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 149
Dec 20	vsSEMO	L 82-91	+1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 30	@TNTC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 3	@LR	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@WIU	W 90-68	-6.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	@EIU	L 70-74	-3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 15	vsMORE	W 105-100	-7.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 205
Jan 17	vsUSI	W 73-67	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	@SIUE	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 24	@LIN	W 96-86	+4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	vsLR	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Feb 2	vsTNTC	L 85-90	-7.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsEIU	W 77-68	-9.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	vsWIU	W 83-56	-15.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 12	@USI	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	@MORE	L 86-94	-1.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 19	vsLIN	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	vsSIUE	W 80-53	-2.5	W +24.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 26	@SEMO	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	@UTM	W 67-42	+2.5	W +27.5	143.5	U 109
Mar 6	vsUTM	W 68-55	-1.5	W +11.5	137.5	U 123
Mar 7	vsMORE	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 20	vsISU	L 74-108	+24.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+5.5

WKU

L 82-95

−0.5

TENN

L 60-89

+2.5

UNCA

W 75-73

+7.5

UTC

W 70-64

+14.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−31.5

UNLV

W 63-60

+15.5

UTM

W 78-71

+4.5

SEMO

L 82-91

−7.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+10.5

W 84-79

+3.5

WIU

W 90-68

+15.5

EIU

L 70-74

−7.5

W 105-100

−2.5

USI

W 73-67

−2.5

SIUE

L 66-74

−6.5

LIN

W 96-86

+14.5

W 70-63

+2.5

TNTC

L 85-90

−12.5

EIU

W 77-68

−0.5

WIU

W 83-56

+11.5

USI

W 73-71

−4.5

L 86-94

−9.5

LIN

W 89-80

+5.5

SIUE

W 80-53

+24.5

SEMO

W 79-71

+10.5

UTM

W 67-42

+27.5

UTM

W 68-55

+11.5

W 93-67

+20.5

ISU

L 74-108

−9.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+7.5

WKU

L 82-95

+9.5

TENN

L 60-89

−8.5

UNCA

W 75-73

−16.5

UTC

W 70-64

−21.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−14.5

UNLV

W 63-60

−38.5

UTM

W 78-71

+7.5

SEMO

L 82-91

+21.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+8.5

W 84-79

+18.5

WIU

W 90-68

+12.5

EIU

L 70-74

−0.5

W 105-100

+56.5

USI

W 73-67

−10.5

SIUE

L 66-74

−2.5

LIN

W 96-86

+21.5

W 70-63

−17.5

TNTC

L 85-90

+21.5

EIU

W 77-68

−0.5

WIU

W 83-56

−12.5

USI

W 73-71

−3.5

L 86-94

+31.5

LIN

W 89-80

+9.5

SIUE

W 80-53

−10.5

SEMO

W 79-71

−1.5

UTM

W 67-42

−34.5

UTM

W 68-55

−14.5

W 93-67

+16.5

ISU

L 74-108

+34.5

over 14under 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

L W L L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

U O O O U O O O U U U U O O O O O O U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMER	W 76-61	-28.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 95-56	-27.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	vsUNF	W 99-66	-41.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 17	vsRICE	W 91-66	-26.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTNST	W 89-60	-31.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsRUTG	W 85-60	-14.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsHOU	W 76-73	+2.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsKU	L 76-81	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	@SYR	L 60-62	-7.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsILL	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 16	vsLOU	W 83-62	-4.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsGWEB	W 94-52	-42.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 30	vsSCST	W 105-54	-44.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	@ARK	L 75-86	-1.5	L −12.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 6	vsTEX	W 85-71	-12.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 156
Jan 10	@FLA	L 67-91	+4.5	L −19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	vsTA&M	W 87-82	-11.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsUK	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 24	@ALA	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 28	@UGA	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 31	vsAUB	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 3	vsMISS	W 84-66	-12.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@UK	L 71-74	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 11	@MSST	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsLSU	W 73-63	-14.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 18	vsOU	W 89-66	-11.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	@VAN	W 69-65	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 24	@MIZ	L 69-73	-3.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 28	vsALA	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@SC	W 78-59	-10.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsVAN	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 12	vsAUB	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 13	vsVAN	L 68-75	-1.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 20	vsM-OH	W 78-56	-12.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 22	vsUVA	W 79-72	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 151
Mar 27	vsISU	W 76-62	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 138
Mar 29	vsMICH	L 62-95	+8.5	L −24.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−13.5

NKU

W 95-56

+11.5

UNF

W 99-66

−8.5

RICE

W 91-66

−1.5

TNST

W 89-60

−2.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+10.5

HOU

W 76-73

+5.5

L 76-81

−12.5

SYR

L 60-62

−9.5

ILL

L 62-75

−14.5

LOU

W 83-62

+16.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−0.5

SCST

W 105-54

+6.5

ARK

L 75-86

−12.5

TEX

W 85-71

+1.5

FLA

L 67-91

−19.5

TA&M

W 87-82

−6.5

L 78-80

−8.5

ALA

W 79-73

+10.5

UGA

W 86-85

−0.5

AUB

W 77-69

+2.5

MISS

W 84-66

+5.5

L 71-74

−1.5

MSST

W 73-64

+0.5

LSU

W 73-63

−4.5

W 89-66

+11.5

VAN

W 69-65

+6.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−7.5

ALA

L 69-71

−7.5

W 78-59

+8.5

VAN

L 82-86

−6.5

AUB

W 72-62

+4.5

VAN

L 68-75

−8.5

M-OH

W 78-56

+9.5

UVA

W 79-72

+5.5

ISU

W 76-62

+16.5

MICH

L 62-95

−24.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−6.5

NKU

W 95-56

+13.5

UNF

W 99-66

+9.5

RICE

W 91-66

+13.5

TNST

W 89-60

−8.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+3.5

HOU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 76-81

+16.5

SYR

L 60-62

−25.5

ILL

L 62-75

−12.5

LOU

W 83-62

−11.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−6.5

SCST

W 105-54

+11.5

ARK

L 75-86

+2.5

TEX

W 85-71

+2.5

FLA

L 67-91

+6.5

TA&M

W 87-82

+9.5

L 78-80

+12.5

ALA

W 79-73

−15.5

UGA

W 86-85

+13.5

AUB

W 77-69

−1.5

MISS

W 84-66

+10.5

L 71-74

−2.5

MSST

W 73-64

−10.5

LSU

W 73-63

−7.5

W 89-66

+5.5

VAN

W 69-65

−16.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−1.5

ALA

L 69-71

−22.5

W 78-59

−4.5

VAN

L 82-86

+21.5

AUB

W 72-62

−10.5

VAN

L 68-75

−4.5

M-OH

W 78-56

−14.5

UVA

W 79-72

+13.5

ISU

W 76-62

−1.5

MICH

L 62-95

+10.5

over 18under 19avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee St 1, Tennessee 3, even 1

Tennessee StBetterTennessee

G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85

Even

G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99

G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30

TENNSmall

G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63

G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42

TENNBig

G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83

F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79

TNSTSmall

F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53

F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47

TENNBig

C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83

Tennessee StBetterTennessee

TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3

TENNBig

TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2

TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3

TENNBig

TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

TENNBig

Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players

TENNSmall

Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

TENNBig

Bench+11.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTNST betterTENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tennessee St

Guards

T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min

Forwards

A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew

Tennessee

Guards

J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min

Forwards

B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew

Centers

M. Rubin30 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TNST77.9 #96

TENN78.8 #81

Points per possession

TNST1.10 #146

TENN1.16 #49

Pace (possessions)

TNST71.1 #66

TENN68.1 #226

Shooting

Effective FG%

TNST50.0 #237

TENN51.4 #174

3-point %

TNST33.3 #211

TENN33.4 #201

3-point attempt rate

TNST30.7 #344

TENN32.1 #328

Free throw rate

TNST33.4 #228

TENN37.4 #115

Possessions

Turnover rate

TNST16.7 #177

TENN17.4 #227

Offensive rebound rate

TNST34.8 #53

TENN44.7 #1

Assists per game

TNST12.7 #237

TENN17.1 #24

Defense

Points allowed

TNST75.1 #191

TENN69.6 #58

Points allowed per possession

TNST1.06 #97

TENN1.02 #43

Opponent effective FG%

TNST51.6 #190

TENN47.8 #37

Opponent 3-point %

TNST34.0 #183

TENN30.5 #21

Turnovers forced

TNST19.8 #26

TENN16.1 #215

Defensive rebound rate

TNST69.4 #184

TENN72.2 #61

Steals per game

TNST9.0 #10

TENN7.3 #101

Blocks per game

TNST3.8 #99

TENN3.7 #114

TNST		TENN
Scoring
77.9 #96	Points per game	78.8 #81
1.10 #146	Points per possession	1.16 #49
71.1 #66	Pace (possessions)	68.1 #226
Shooting
50.0 #237	Effective FG%	51.4 #174
33.3 #211	3-point %	33.4 #201
30.7 #344	3-point attempt rate	32.1 #328
33.4 #228	Free throw rate	37.4 #115
Possessions
16.7 #177	Turnover rate	17.4 #227
34.8 #53	Offensive rebound rate	44.7 #1
12.7 #237	Assists per game	17.1 #24
Defense
75.1 #191	Points allowed	69.6 #58
1.06 #97	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #43
51.6 #190	Opponent effective FG%	47.8 #37
34.0 #183	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #21
19.8 #26	Turnovers forced	16.1 #215
69.4 #184	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #61
9.0 #10	Steals per game	7.3 #101
3.8 #99	Blocks per game	3.7 #114

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State74–108
Wvs Morehead St93–67
Wvs UT Martin68–55
W@ UT Martin67–42
W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan62–95
Wvs Iowa State76–62
Wvs Virginia79–72
Wvs Miami OH78–56
Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee St

Tennessee

Tennessee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tennessee St

Tennessee