Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

#19UKKentucky AP #23

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Arizona and Kentucky
NAU	This season	UK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UK 92–59 · win probability UK 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

NAU 0, UK 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UKBig

NAU offense vs UK defense

Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings

UKBig

UK offense vs NAU defense

Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UKBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, UK 70.0%

UKBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9

UKBig

Three-pointers

NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 36.6% and 39.7% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points

UKSmall

Home court

UK at home. This season: UK 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, UK 26%. Transfers in: NAU 3, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, UK 37.4. Allowed: NAU 32.7, UK 36.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, UK 15.4%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, UK 15.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UK -33.4	—
Total	—	151.3	—
Projected score	—	NAU 58.9 · UK 92.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -19.8	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	NAU 25.5 · UK 45.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WLLLL	14-15	48%	6-8	—
UK LWWWL	18-18	50%	9-9	—

Venue/role: NAU away; UK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUUUU	11-18	38%	7-22
UK OOUOU	18-18	50%	22-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ CP	W93–87WO
Nov 28	@ CSUB	W74–64WO
Dec 3	vs MONT	L72–98LO

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs GRAM	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs IU	W72–60WU
Nov 27	vs WICH	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W W L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L W L L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U O O O U O U O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 9	@ASU	L 48-73	+16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	@USD	L 69-78	+4.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 18	vsSUU	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 21	@UIW	L 66-90	+6.5	L −17.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 1	@MONT	L 64-78	+5.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 3	@MTST	L 68-77	+10.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 8	vsWEB	L 65-78	+2.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	vsIDST	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SAC	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 17	@PRST	L 52-63	+11.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 115
Jan 19	vsMONT	L 72-98	+3.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUNCO	W 81-77	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 29	vsEWU	W 92-86	+2.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 178
Jan 31	vsIDHO	L 62-79	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@IDST	W 79-73	+8.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WEB	L 53-72	+7.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsPRST	L 68-77	+6.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 14	vsSAC	W 79-74	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UNCO	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 155
Feb 26	@IDHO	L 58-78	+10.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	@EWU	L 57-88	+9.5	L −21.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 2	vsMTST	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsIDST	L 65-73	+4.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

ASU

L 48-73

−8.5

USD

L 69-78

−4.5

SUU

W 65-57

+2.5

UIW

L 66-90

−17.5

MONT

L 64-78

−8.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−10.5

IDST

L 79-81

+2.5

SAC

L 69-83

−12.5

PRST

L 52-63

+0.5

MONT

L 72-98

−22.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+10.5

EWU

W 92-86

+8.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−11.5

IDST

W 79-73

+14.5

WEB

L 53-72

−11.5

PRST

L 68-77

−2.5

SAC

W 79-74

+2.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+12.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−21.5

MTST

L 65-76

−5.5

IDST

L 65-73

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

ASU

L 48-73

−33.5

USD

L 69-78

−2.5

SUU

W 65-57

−28.5

UIW

L 66-90

+15.5

MONT

L 64-78

−7.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−6.5

IDST

L 79-81

+20.5

SAC

L 69-83

−1.5

PRST

L 52-63

−25.5

MONT

L 72-98

+23.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+7.5

EWU

W 92-86

+32.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−5.5

IDST

W 79-73

+10.5

WEB

L 53-72

−25.5

PRST

L 68-77

+8.5

SAC

W 79-74

−1.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+3.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−1.5

MTST

L 65-76

−1.5

IDST

L 65-73

−4.5

over 11under 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

36 games played

Straight up

22-14

61% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-18

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1461%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1850%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O U O O U U O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	vsMIZ	L 68-73	-12.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsMSST	W 92-68	-10.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 14	@LSU	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	@TENN	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsTEX	W 85-80	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsMISS	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 27	@VAN	L 55-80	+5.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	@ARK	W 85-77	+6.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsOU	W 94-78	-8.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	vsTENN	W 74-71	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@FLA	L 83-92	+12.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsUGA	L 78-86	-6.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	@AUB	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@SC	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsVAN	W 91-77	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@TA&M	L 85-96	+1.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	vsFLA	L 77-84	+5.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 11	vsLSU	W 87-82	-8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsMIZ	W 78-72	-2.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsFLA	L 63-71	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsSCU	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsISU	L 63-82	+5.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−17.5

MSST

W 92-68

+13.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+8.5

TEX

W 85-80

−2.5

MISS

W 72-63

−2.5

VAN

L 55-80

−19.5

ARK

W 85-77

+14.5

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

W 74-71

+1.5

FLA

L 83-92

+3.5

UGA

L 78-86

−14.5

AUB

L 74-75

+2.5

W 72-63

+1.5

VAN

W 91-77

+12.5

TA&M

L 85-96

−9.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

−3.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+3.5

FLA

L 63-71

+2.5

SCU

W 89-84

+1.5

ISU

L 63-82

−13.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−9.5

MSST

W 92-68

+7.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+12.5

TEX

W 85-80

+12.5

MISS

W 72-63

−10.5

VAN

L 55-80

−20.5

ARK

W 85-77

+2.5

W 94-78

+19.5

TENN

W 74-71

−2.5

FLA

L 83-92

+20.5

UGA

L 78-86

+2.5

AUB

L 74-75

−4.5

W 72-63

−16.5

VAN

W 91-77

+10.5

TA&M

L 85-96

+18.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

+17.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+1.5

FLA

L 63-71

−27.5

SCU

W 89-84

+15.5

ISU

L 63-82

−1.5

over 18under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: N Arizona 0, Kentucky 4, even 1

N ArizonaBetterKentucky

G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42

UKBig

G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81

G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50

UKBig

G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7

UKBig

G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48

G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97

F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

UKBig

F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87

N ArizonaBetterKentucky

NAU offense330th of 366 · -10.7

UKBig

UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5

NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4

UKBig

UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

UKBig

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

UKBig

Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

UKBig

Bench+5.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestNAU betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Arizona

Guards

R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min

Forwards

D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew

Centers

N. KeutchaNew

Kentucky

Guards

A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew

Forwards

M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew

Centers

F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NAU68.1 #311

UK80.5 #55

Points per possession

NAU1.04 #271

UK1.15 #57

Pace (possessions)

NAU65.5 #330

UK69.9 #123

Shooting

Effective FG%

NAU51.7 #161

UK53.4 #87

3-point %

NAU35.6 #79

UK34.2 #158

3-point attempt rate

NAU36.6 #236

UK39.7 #180

Free throw rate

NAU31.8 #260

UK37.4 #119

Possessions

Turnover rate

NAU16.0 #140

UK15.4 #98

Offensive rebound rate

NAU23.3 #348

UK33.2 #84

Assists per game

NAU12.5 #251

UK15.9 #50

Defense

Points allowed

NAU77.6 #257

UK74.3 #167

Points allowed per possession

NAU1.18 #351

UK1.06 #115

Opponent effective FG%

NAU56.9 #355

UK48.9 #63

Opponent 3-point %

NAU38.7 #362

UK31.8 #55

Turnovers forced

NAU16.6 #181

UK15.5 #248

Defensive rebound rate

NAU66.6 #305

UK70.0 #158

Steals per game

NAU6.3 #194

UK7.0 #123

Blocks per game

NAU2.7 #287

UK4.6 #33

NAU		UK
Scoring
68.1 #311	Points per game	80.5 #55
1.04 #271	Points per possession	1.15 #57
65.5 #330	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #123
Shooting
51.7 #161	Effective FG%	53.4 #87
35.6 #79	3-point %	34.2 #158
36.6 #236	3-point attempt rate	39.7 #180
31.8 #260	Free throw rate	37.4 #119
Possessions
16.0 #140	Turnover rate	15.4 #98
23.3 #348	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #84
12.5 #251	Assists per game	15.9 #50
Defense
77.6 #257	Points allowed	74.3 #167
1.18 #351	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #115
56.9 #355	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #63
38.7 #362	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #55
16.6 #181	Turnovers forced	15.5 #248
66.6 #305	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #158
6.3 #194	Steals per game	7.0 #123
2.7 #287	Blocks per game	4.6 #33

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Idaho St65–73
Lvs Montana St65–76
L@ E Washington57–88
L@ Idaho58–78
L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State63–82
Wvs Santa Clara89–84
Lvs Florida63–71
Wvs Missouri78–72
Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Kentucky Wildcats

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

Kentucky

Kentucky has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Arizona

Kentucky