Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM ETIcardo Center · at Bakersfield

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Arizona and Bakersfield
NAU	This season	CSUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSUB 75–73 · win probability CSUB 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAU has more of the edges

NAU 4, CSUB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), CSUB 72.7 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

NAUSmall

Three-pointers

NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; CSUB hits 29.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 36.6% and 28.9% of their shots

NAUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; CSUB 45.7 and allows 54.0

Context

Schedule so far

NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, CSUB the 211th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CSUBSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, CSUB 30.4%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, CSUB 64.4%

NAUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, CSUB 10%. Transfers in: NAU 3, CSUB 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CSUBSmall

Home court

CSUB at home. This season: CSUB 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away

NAUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, CSUB 18.8%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, CSUB 17.9%

Even

NAU offense vs CSUB defense

Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 348th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, CSUB 42.2. Allowed: NAU 32.7, CSUB 42.6

Even

CSUB offense vs NAU defense

Offense 287th of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSUB -2.0	—
Total	—	147.9	—
Projected score	—	NAU 73 · CSUB 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSUB -1.1	—
1H total	69.2	—
1H projected score	NAU 34.1 · CSUB 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WLLLL	14-15	48%	6-8	—
CSUB LWWWL	12-18	40%	6-9	—

Venue/role: NAU away; CSUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUUUU	11-18	38%	7-22
CSUB OOOOO	16-14	53%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
CSUB	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs MONT	L72–98LO
Dec 5	vs MTST	L65–76LU

Bakersfield

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs UCSB	L69–75WU
Dec 5	vs CSUN	L84–86WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NAU 1–0 CSUBNAU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NAU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2021-22	CSUB 64 @ NAU 74	NAU +3	NAU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W W L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L W L L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U O O O U O U O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 9	@ASU	L 48-73	+16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	@USD	L 69-78	+4.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 18	vsSUU	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 21	@UIW	L 66-90	+6.5	L −17.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 1	@MONT	L 64-78	+5.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 3	@MTST	L 68-77	+10.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 8	vsWEB	L 65-78	+2.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	vsIDST	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SAC	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 17	@PRST	L 52-63	+11.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 115
Jan 19	vsMONT	L 72-98	+3.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUNCO	W 81-77	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 29	vsEWU	W 92-86	+2.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 178
Jan 31	vsIDHO	L 62-79	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@IDST	W 79-73	+8.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WEB	L 53-72	+7.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsPRST	L 68-77	+6.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 14	vsSAC	W 79-74	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UNCO	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 155
Feb 26	@IDHO	L 58-78	+10.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	@EWU	L 57-88	+9.5	L −21.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 2	vsMTST	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsIDST	L 65-73	+4.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

ASU

L 48-73

−8.5

USD

L 69-78

−4.5

SUU

W 65-57

+2.5

UIW

L 66-90

−17.5

MONT

L 64-78

−8.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−10.5

IDST

L 79-81

+2.5

SAC

L 69-83

−12.5

PRST

L 52-63

+0.5

MONT

L 72-98

−22.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+10.5

EWU

W 92-86

+8.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−11.5

IDST

W 79-73

+14.5

WEB

L 53-72

−11.5

PRST

L 68-77

−2.5

SAC

W 79-74

+2.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+12.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−21.5

MTST

L 65-76

−5.5

IDST

L 65-73

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

ASU

L 48-73

−33.5

USD

L 69-78

−2.5

SUU

W 65-57

−28.5

UIW

L 66-90

+15.5

MONT

L 64-78

−7.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−6.5

IDST

L 79-81

+20.5

SAC

L 69-83

−1.5

PRST

L 52-63

−25.5

MONT

L 72-98

+23.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+7.5

EWU

W 92-86

+32.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−5.5

IDST

W 79-73

+10.5

WEB

L 53-72

−25.5

PRST

L 68-77

+8.5

SAC

W 79-74

−1.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+3.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−1.5

MTST

L 65-76

−1.5

IDST

L 65-73

−4.5

over 11under 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bakersfield

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W W L L L W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O O O U U U O U U U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@FSU	L 59-89	+26.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsFRES	W 76-71	+10.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 4	@CSUN	L 66-87	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCSB	L 84-109	+12.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 11	vsNDSU	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsPEPP	L 62-70	-1.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 23	vsIDHO	W 64-63	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUCI	L 77-81	+11.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@UCD	W 81-79	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsUCR	W 67-66	-3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	@LBSU	L 75-81	+6.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCSB	L 69-75	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUCSD	L 62-83	+8.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@HAW	L 71-98	+17.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 29	vsCP	L 79-104	+1.5	L −23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	vsUCD	L 72-80	+5.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCI	L 62-78	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@CSUF	L 66-82	+9.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 12	vsHAW	L 74-89	+13.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 19	@UCR	L 65-93	+6.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsCSUF	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 168
Feb 26	@UCSD	L 72-84	+14.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsLBSU	L 87-88	+3.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsCSUN	L 84-86	+8.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	@CP	L 76-108	+8.5	L −23.5	174.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

FSU

L 59-89

−3.5

FRES

W 76-71

+15.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−15.5

UCSB

L 84-109

−12.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−3.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−9.5

IDHO

W 64-63

+8.5

UCI

L 77-81

+7.5

UCD

W 81-79

+11.5

UCR

W 67-66

−2.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+0.5

UCSB

L 69-75

+1.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−12.5

HAW

L 71-98

−9.5

L 79-104

−23.5

UCD

L 72-80

−2.5

UCI

L 62-78

+0.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−6.5

HAW

L 74-89

−1.5

UCR

L 65-93

−21.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−2.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+2.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+2.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

−23.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

FSU

L 59-89

−11.5

FRES

W 76-71

−3.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−2.5

UCSB

L 84-109

+47.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−0.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−15.5

IDHO

W 64-63

−23.5

UCI

L 77-81

+14.5

UCD

W 81-79

+8.5

UCR

W 67-66

−14.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+13.5

UCSB

L 69-75

−0.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−2.5

HAW

L 71-98

+24.5

L 79-104

+21.5

UCD

L 72-80

−0.5

UCI

L 62-78

−4.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−9.5

HAW

L 74-89

+11.5

UCR

L 65-93

+7.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+7.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+7.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+22.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

+9.5

over 16under 14avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: N Arizona 0, Bakersfield 0, even 5

N ArizonaBetterBakersfield

G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42

Even

G B. Cofield TR9.8 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 42

G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50

Even

G J. Alexander9.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62

G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7

No call

G S. Pouedet TR0.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Dioramma TR4.8 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 38

F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

No call

F C. Barnes TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

N ArizonaBetterBakersfield

NAU offense330th of 366 · -10.7

Even

CSUB defense348th of 366 · -9.5

NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4

Even

CSUB offense287th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

CSUBBig

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestNAU betterCSUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Arizona

Guards

R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min

Forwards

D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew

Centers

N. KeutchaNew

Bakersfield

Guards

B. Cofield21 min · TRJ. Alexander20 minS. Pouedet5 min · TRS. WigingtonNewK. BradleyNewE. BrysonNew

Forwards

C. Dioramma15 min · TRC. Barnes6 min · TRT. KoppensNewP. IvancicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NAU68.1 #311

CSUB72.0 #244

Points per possession

NAU1.04 #271

CSUB0.99 #336

Pace (possessions)

NAU65.5 #330

CSUB72.7 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

NAU51.7 #161

CSUB45.7 #355

3-point %

NAU35.6 #79

CSUB29.0 #353

3-point attempt rate

NAU36.6 #236

CSUB28.9 #356

Free throw rate

NAU31.8 #260

CSUB42.2 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

NAU16.0 #140

CSUB18.8 #313

Offensive rebound rate

NAU23.3 #348

CSUB30.4 #181

Assists per game

NAU12.5 #251

CSUB10.9 #340

Defense

Points allowed

NAU77.6 #257

CSUB83.4 #351

Points allowed per possession

NAU1.18 #351

CSUB1.15 #326

Opponent effective FG%

NAU56.9 #355

CSUB54.0 #301

Opponent 3-point %

NAU38.7 #362

CSUB36.0 #306

Turnovers forced

NAU16.6 #181

CSUB17.9 #101

Defensive rebound rate

NAU66.6 #305

CSUB64.4 #349

Steals per game

NAU6.3 #194

CSUB7.4 #91

Blocks per game

NAU2.7 #287

CSUB5.0 #18

NAU		CSUB
Scoring
68.1 #311	Points per game	72.0 #244
1.04 #271	Points per possession	0.99 #336
65.5 #330	Pace (possessions)	72.7 #22
Shooting
51.7 #161	Effective FG%	45.7 #355
35.6 #79	3-point %	29.0 #353
36.6 #236	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #356
31.8 #260	Free throw rate	42.2 #27
Possessions
16.0 #140	Turnover rate	18.8 #313
23.3 #348	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #181
12.5 #251	Assists per game	10.9 #340
Defense
77.6 #257	Points allowed	83.4 #351
1.18 #351	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #326
56.9 #355	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #301
38.7 #362	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #306
16.6 #181	Turnovers forced	17.9 #101
66.6 #305	Defensive rebound rate	64.4 #349
6.3 #194	Steals per game	7.4 #91
2.7 #287	Blocks per game	5.0 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Idaho St65–73
Lvs Montana St65–76
L@ E Washington57–88
L@ Idaho58–78
L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

Bakersfield

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 2-18 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cal Poly76–108
Lvs CSU Northridge84–86
Lvs Long Beach St87–88
L@ UC San Diego72–84
Lvs Fullerton80–88

A week or more of rest.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

What could decide it: NAU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

Bakersfield

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Arizona

Bakersfield