Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal Poly Mustangs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETMott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Arizona and Cal Poly
NAU	This season	CP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CP 86–73 · win probability CP 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CP has more of the edges

NAU 1, CP 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CPBig

CP offense vs NAU defense

Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 292nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: NAU plays 65.5 a game (330th fastest), CP 76.4 (1st). Faster games mean more points

CPBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NAU 23.3%, CP 30.0%. Defensive: NAU 66.6%, CP 70.4%

NAUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NAU 16.0%, CP 19.8%. Forced: NAU 16.6%, CP 16.3%

CPBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NAU 40%, CP 100%. Transfers in: NAU 3, CP 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

NAU has played the 275th-hardest schedule, CP the 170th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CPSmall

Home court

CP at home. This season: CP 0-0 at home, NAU 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NAU 51.7 and allows 56.9; CP 51.5 and allows 53.8

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NAU 31.8, CP 34.9. Allowed: NAU 32.7, CP 34.1

Even

NAU offense vs CP defense

Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

NAU hits 35.6% and allows 38.7%; CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 36.6% and 52.6% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CP -13.1	—
Total	—	158.5	—
Projected score	—	NAU 72.7 · CP 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CP -7.6	—
1H total	74.0	—
1H projected score	NAU 33.2 · CP 40.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WLLLL	14-15	48%	6-8	—
CP WLLWW	17-14	55%	7-5	—

Venue/role: NAU away; CP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUUUU	11-18	38%	7-22
CP OUOOU	18-13	58%	12-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
CP	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ CSUB	W74–64WO
Dec 3	vs MONT	L72–98LO
Dec 5	vs MTST	L65–76LU

Cal Poly

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ CSUN	L96–97WO
Dec 5	@ UCSB	W89–79WO
Dec 12	vs MONT	L82–90LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NAU 1–0 CPNAU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NAU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2025-26	CP 87 @ NAU 93	NAU +1.5	NAU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W W L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L W L L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U O O O U O U O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 9	@ASU	L 48-73	+16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	@USD	L 69-78	+4.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 18	vsSUU	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 21	@UIW	L 66-90	+6.5	L −17.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 1	@MONT	L 64-78	+5.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 3	@MTST	L 68-77	+10.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 8	vsWEB	L 65-78	+2.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	vsIDST	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SAC	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 17	@PRST	L 52-63	+11.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 115
Jan 19	vsMONT	L 72-98	+3.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUNCO	W 81-77	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 29	vsEWU	W 92-86	+2.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 178
Jan 31	vsIDHO	L 62-79	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@IDST	W 79-73	+8.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WEB	L 53-72	+7.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsPRST	L 68-77	+6.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 14	vsSAC	W 79-74	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UNCO	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 155
Feb 26	@IDHO	L 58-78	+10.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 28	@EWU	L 57-88	+9.5	L −21.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 2	vsMTST	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsIDST	L 65-73	+4.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

ASU

L 48-73

−8.5

USD

L 69-78

−4.5

SUU

W 65-57

+2.5

UIW

L 66-90

−17.5

MONT

L 64-78

−8.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−10.5

IDST

L 79-81

+2.5

SAC

L 69-83

−12.5

PRST

L 52-63

+0.5

MONT

L 72-98

−22.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+10.5

EWU

W 92-86

+8.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−11.5

IDST

W 79-73

+14.5

WEB

L 53-72

−11.5

PRST

L 68-77

−2.5

SAC

W 79-74

+2.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+12.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−21.5

MTST

L 65-76

−5.5

IDST

L 65-73

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

ASU

L 48-73

−33.5

USD

L 69-78

−2.5

SUU

W 65-57

−28.5

UIW

L 66-90

+15.5

MONT

L 64-78

−7.5

MTST

L 68-77

+1.5

WEB

L 65-78

−6.5

IDST

L 79-81

+20.5

SAC

L 69-83

−1.5

PRST

L 52-63

−25.5

MONT

L 72-98

+23.5

UNCO

W 81-77

+7.5

EWU

W 92-86

+32.5

IDHO

L 62-79

−5.5

IDST

W 79-73

+10.5

WEB

L 53-72

−25.5

PRST

L 68-77

+8.5

SAC

W 79-74

−1.5

UNCO

L 77-78

+3.5

IDHO

L 58-78

−9.5

EWU

L 57-88

−1.5

MTST

L 65-76

−1.5

IDST

L 65-73

−4.5

over 11under 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cal Poly

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L L W L L W L L L L W L L W L L L W W L L W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W W L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U O O O O U O O O O U U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 20	@UTAH	W 92-85	+14.5	W +21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 24	@NAU	L 87-93	-1.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsSEMO	L 68-84	+1.5	L −14.5	170.5	U 152
Dec 4	@CSUF	W 94-91	+1.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsUCR	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 16	vsMTST	L 80-83	+2.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 163
Dec 19	@UCLA	L 87-108	+24.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 21	vsIDHO	L 80-83	+1.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 163
Jan 1	vsUCSD	W 67-65	+8.5	W +10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	@LBSU	L 66-74	+2.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@CSUN	L 90-95	+6.5	W +1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	vsUCD	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	168.5	U 162
Jan 15	vsHAW	L 66-86	+5.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 152
Jan 22	@UCSB	L 67-107	+8.5	L −31.5	159.5	O 174
Jan 24	vsCSUF	L 78-93	+1.5	L −13.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 29	@CSUB	W 104-79	-1.5	W +23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	@UCR	W 94-87	+1.5	W +8.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 5	vsCSUN	L 96-97	+2.5	W +1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	@UCD	L 58-67	+5.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsUCI	W 79-73	+5.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUCSB	W 89-79	+3.5	W +13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 19	@HAW	W 86-75	+11.5	W +22.5	160.5	O 161
Feb 26	vsLBSU	W 102-92	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@UCSD	L 64-80	+7.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@UCI	L 85-107	+9.5	L −12.5	160.5	O 192
Mar 7	vsCSUB	W 108-76	-8.5	W +23.5	174.5	O 184
Mar 11	vsUCSD	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+21.5

NAU

L 87-93

−7.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−14.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+4.5

UCR

L 84-88

−9.5

MTST

L 80-83

−0.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+3.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−1.5

UCSD

W 67-65

+10.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+1.5

UCD

W 84-78

+7.5

HAW

L 66-86

−14.5

UCSB

L 67-107

−31.5

CSUF

L 78-93

−13.5

CSUB

W 104-79

+23.5

UCR

W 94-87

+8.5

CSUN

L 96-97

+1.5

UCD

L 58-67

−3.5

UCI

W 79-73

+11.5

UCSB

W 89-79

+13.5

HAW

W 86-75

+22.5

LBSU

W 102-92

+4.5

UCSD

L 64-80

−8.5

UCI

L 85-107

−12.5

CSUB

W 108-76

+23.5

UCSD

L 69-72

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+9.5

NAU

L 87-93

+15.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−18.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+7.5

UCR

L 84-88

+9.5

MTST

L 80-83

+3.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+33.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−4.5

UCSD

W 67-65

−42.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−22.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+9.5

UCD

W 84-78

−6.5

HAW

L 66-86

−8.5

UCSB

L 67-107

+14.5

CSUF

L 78-93

−2.5

CSUB

W 104-79

+21.5

UCR

W 94-87

+18.5

CSUN

L 96-97

+15.5

UCD

L 58-67

−44.5

UCI

W 79-73

−9.5

UCSB

W 89-79

+8.5

HAW

W 86-75

+0.5

LBSU

W 102-92

+31.5

UCSD

L 64-80

−20.5

UCI

L 85-107

+31.5

CSUB

W 108-76

+9.5

UCSD

L 69-72

−21.5

over 18under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal Poly has the better starters

Position by position: N Arizona 0, Cal Poly 2, even 3

N ArizonaBetterCal Poly

G R. Abelman10.9 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 42

CPBig

G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96

G C. Komin8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 50

Even

G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58

G B. Peterson4.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 7

Even

G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21

G M. Majerle TR0.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15

F D. Anderson TR1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

CPSmall

G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33

N ArizonaBetterCal Poly

NAU offense330th of 366 · -10.7

Even

CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2

NAU defense292nd of 366 · -7.4

CPBig

CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

CPBig

Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

NAUBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNAU betterCP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Arizona

Guards

R. Abelman33 minC. Komin27 minB. Peterson20 minM. Majerle5 min · TRC. Bennett3 min · TRJ. Amundsen1 min

Forwards

D. Anderson7 min · TRL. WieskampNewT. GreenNewL. ToukamNewZ. TannerNew

Centers

N. KeutchaNew

Cal Poly

Guards

H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min

Forwards

A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NAU68.1 #311

CP81.3 #42

Points per possession

NAU1.04 #271

CP1.06 #222

Pace (possessions)

NAU65.5 #330

CP76.4 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

NAU51.7 #161

CP51.5 #170

3-point %

NAU35.6 #79

CP33.0 #228

3-point attempt rate

NAU36.6 #236

CP52.6 #5

Free throw rate

NAU31.8 #260

CP34.9 #182

Possessions

Turnover rate

NAU16.0 #140

CP19.8 #345

Offensive rebound rate

NAU23.3 #348

CP30.0 #202

Assists per game

NAU12.5 #251

CP13.3 #194

Defense

Points allowed

NAU77.6 #257

CP85.3 #360

Points allowed per possession

NAU1.18 #351

CP1.12 #274

Opponent effective FG%

NAU56.9 #355

CP53.8 #292

Opponent 3-point %

NAU38.7 #362

CP34.7 #231

Turnovers forced

NAU16.6 #181

CP16.3 #203

Defensive rebound rate

NAU66.6 #305

CP70.4 #141

Steals per game

NAU6.3 #194

CP6.4 #188

Blocks per game

NAU2.7 #287

CP2.2 #337

NAU		CP
Scoring
68.1 #311	Points per game	81.3 #42
1.04 #271	Points per possession	1.06 #222
65.5 #330	Pace (possessions)	76.4 #1
Shooting
51.7 #161	Effective FG%	51.5 #170
35.6 #79	3-point %	33.0 #228
36.6 #236	3-point attempt rate	52.6 #5
31.8 #260	Free throw rate	34.9 #182
Possessions
16.0 #140	Turnover rate	19.8 #345
23.3 #348	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #202
12.5 #251	Assists per game	13.3 #194
Defense
77.6 #257	Points allowed	85.3 #360
1.18 #351	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #274
56.9 #355	Opponent effective FG%	53.8 #292
38.7 #362	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #231
16.6 #181	Turnovers forced	16.3 #203
66.6 #305	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #141
6.3 #194	Steals per game	6.4 #188
2.7 #287	Blocks per game	2.2 #337

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Arizona

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Idaho St65–73
Lvs Montana St65–76
L@ E Washington57–88
L@ Idaho58–78
L@ N Colorado77–78

A week or more of rest.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC San Diego69–72
Wvs Bakersfield108–76
L@ UC Irvine85–107
L@ UC San Diego64–80
Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal Poly Mustangs

What could decide it: CP has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

Cal Poly

Cal Poly has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Arizona

Cal Poly