Michigan State Spartans at Tennessee Volunteers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ETFood City Center · at Tennessee

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Michigan St and Tennessee
MSU	This season	TENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 76–73 · win probability TENN 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

MSU 2, TENN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MSU 63%, TENN 13%. Transfers in: MSU 1, TENN 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MSU 35.9, TENN 37.4. Allowed: MSU 30.2, TENN 36.3

TENNSmall

Home court

TENN at home. This season: TENN 0-0 at home, MSU 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9; TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MSU 17.1%, TENN 17.4%. Forced: MSU 14.9%, TENN 16.1%

Even

Three-pointers

MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 36.4% and 32.1% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MSU 37.8%, TENN 44.7%. Defensive: MSU 77.6%, TENN 72.2%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MSU plays 67.3 a game (264th fastest), TENN 68.1 (226th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MSU offense vs TENN defense

Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MSU has played the 16th-hardest schedule, TENN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

TENN offense vs MSU defense

Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TENN -3.1	—
Total	—	149.6	—
Projected score	—	MSU 73.3 · TENN 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TENN -1.7	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	MSU 34.1 · TENN 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WLWWL	18-17	51%	6-4	—
TENN LWWWL	17-20	46%	7-10	—

Venue/role: MSU away; TENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OOOUU	16-19	46%	27-8
TENN UUOUO	18-19	49%	25-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
TENN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs DETM	W84–56LU
Nov 26	vs ARK	W69–66WU
Dec 2	vs MINN	L73–76LO

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs CCU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs MD	W56–53LU
Dec 1	vs FSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Michigan St

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-19

46% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

L W L W L W W W L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L W L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1946%

O U U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOLG	W 80-69	-22.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 8	vsARK	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 13	vsSJSU	W 79-60	-24.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsUK	W 83-66	+3.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsDETM	W 84-56	-30.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 25	vsECU	W 89-56	-19.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsUNC	W 74-58	-1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	vsIOWA	W 71-52	-5.5	W +13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsDUKE	L 60-66	+1.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 13	@PSU	W 76-72	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 16	vsTOL	W 92-69	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsOAK	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	vsCOR	W 114-97	-23.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 2	@NEB	L 56-58	+2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	vsUSC	W 80-51	-11.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 131
Jan 8	vsNU	W 76-66	-13.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 13	vsIU	W 81-60	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	@WASH	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 20	@ORE	W 68-52	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 24	vsMD	W 91-48	-18.5	W +24.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 27	@RUTG	W 88-79	-14.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 167
Jan 30	vsMICH	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 154
Feb 4	@MINN	L 73-76	-8.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 7	vsILL	W 85-82	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 13	@WIS	L 71-92	-1.5	L −22.5	149.5	O 163
Feb 17	vsUCLA	W 82-59	-8.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 22	vsOSU	W 66-60	-10.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 126
Feb 26	@PUR	W 76-74	+5.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@IU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 5	vsRUTG	W 91-87	-20.5	L −16.5	141.5	O 178
Mar 8	@MICH	L 80-90	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsUCLA	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsNDSU	W 92-67	-16.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 159
Mar 21	vsLOU	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 27	vsCONN	L 63-67	+2.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

−11.5

ARK

W 69-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−5.5

W 83-66

+20.5

DETM

W 84-56

−2.5

ECU

W 89-56

+13.5

UNC

W 74-58

+14.5

IOWA

W 71-52

+13.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−4.5

PSU

W 76-72

−8.5

TOL

W 92-69

−0.5

OAK

W 79-70

−10.5

COR

W 114-97

−6.5

NEB

L 56-58

+0.5

USC

W 80-51

+17.5

W 76-66

−3.5

W 81-60

+14.5

WASH

W 80-63

+13.5

ORE

W 68-52

+5.5

W 91-48

+24.5

RUTG

W 88-79

−5.5

MICH

L 71-83

−9.5

MINN

L 73-76

−11.5

ILL

W 85-82

+1.5

WIS

L 71-92

−22.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+14.5

OSU

W 66-60

−4.5

PUR

W 76-74

+7.5

W 77-64

+10.5

RUTG

W 91-87

−16.5

MICH

L 80-90

+0.5

UCLA

L 84-88

−9.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+8.5

LOU

W 77-69

+2.5

CONN

L 63-67

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

+4.5

ARK

W 69-66

−20.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−4.5

W 83-66

−3.5

DETM

W 84-56

−9.5

ECU

W 89-56

+4.5

UNC

W 74-58

−20.5

IOWA

W 71-52

−10.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−15.5

PSU

W 76-72

+2.5

TOL

W 92-69

+10.5

OAK

W 79-70

−6.5

COR

W 114-97

+50.5

NEB

L 56-58

−32.5

USC

W 80-51

−20.5

W 76-66

−1.5

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 80-63

−2.5

ORE

W 68-52

−19.5

W 91-48

−2.5

RUTG

W 88-79

+28.5

MICH

L 71-83

+4.5

MINN

L 73-76

+12.5

ILL

W 85-82

+24.5

WIS

L 71-92

+13.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+1.5

OSU

W 66-60

−20.5

PUR

W 76-74

+6.5

W 77-64

−3.5

RUTG

W 91-87

+36.5

MICH

L 80-90

+17.5

UCLA

L 84-88

+30.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+14.5

LOU

W 77-69

−5.5

CONN

L 63-67

−6.5

over 16under 19avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

L W L L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

U O O O U O O O U U U U O O O O O O U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMER	W 76-61	-28.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 95-56	-27.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	vsUNF	W 99-66	-41.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 17	vsRICE	W 91-66	-26.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTNST	W 89-60	-31.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsRUTG	W 85-60	-14.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsHOU	W 76-73	+2.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsKU	L 76-81	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	@SYR	L 60-62	-7.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsILL	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 16	vsLOU	W 83-62	-4.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsGWEB	W 94-52	-42.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 30	vsSCST	W 105-54	-44.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	@ARK	L 75-86	-1.5	L −12.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 6	vsTEX	W 85-71	-12.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 156
Jan 10	@FLA	L 67-91	+4.5	L −19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	vsTA&M	W 87-82	-11.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsUK	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 24	@ALA	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 28	@UGA	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 31	vsAUB	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 3	vsMISS	W 84-66	-12.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@UK	L 71-74	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 11	@MSST	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsLSU	W 73-63	-14.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 18	vsOU	W 89-66	-11.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	@VAN	W 69-65	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 24	@MIZ	L 69-73	-3.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 28	vsALA	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@SC	W 78-59	-10.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsVAN	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 12	vsAUB	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 13	vsVAN	L 68-75	-1.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 20	vsM-OH	W 78-56	-12.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 22	vsUVA	W 79-72	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 151
Mar 27	vsISU	W 76-62	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 138
Mar 29	vsMICH	L 62-95	+8.5	L −24.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−13.5

NKU

W 95-56

+11.5

UNF

W 99-66

−8.5

RICE

W 91-66

−1.5

TNST

W 89-60

−2.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+10.5

HOU

W 76-73

+5.5

L 76-81

−12.5

SYR

L 60-62

−9.5

ILL

L 62-75

−14.5

LOU

W 83-62

+16.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−0.5

SCST

W 105-54

+6.5

ARK

L 75-86

−12.5

TEX

W 85-71

+1.5

FLA

L 67-91

−19.5

TA&M

W 87-82

−6.5

L 78-80

−8.5

ALA

W 79-73

+10.5

UGA

W 86-85

−0.5

AUB

W 77-69

+2.5

MISS

W 84-66

+5.5

L 71-74

−1.5

MSST

W 73-64

+0.5

LSU

W 73-63

−4.5

W 89-66

+11.5

VAN

W 69-65

+6.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−7.5

ALA

L 69-71

−7.5

W 78-59

+8.5

VAN

L 82-86

−6.5

AUB

W 72-62

+4.5

VAN

L 68-75

−8.5

M-OH

W 78-56

+9.5

UVA

W 79-72

+5.5

ISU

W 76-62

+16.5

MICH

L 62-95

−24.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−6.5

NKU

W 95-56

+13.5

UNF

W 99-66

+9.5

RICE

W 91-66

+13.5

TNST

W 89-60

−8.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+3.5

HOU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 76-81

+16.5

SYR

L 60-62

−25.5

ILL

L 62-75

−12.5

LOU

W 83-62

−11.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−6.5

SCST

W 105-54

+11.5

ARK

L 75-86

+2.5

TEX

W 85-71

+2.5

FLA

L 67-91

+6.5

TA&M

W 87-82

+9.5

L 78-80

+12.5

ALA

W 79-73

−15.5

UGA

W 86-85

+13.5

AUB

W 77-69

−1.5

MISS

W 84-66

+10.5

L 71-74

−2.5

MSST

W 73-64

−10.5

LSU

W 73-63

−7.5

W 89-66

+5.5

VAN

W 69-65

−16.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−1.5

ALA

L 69-71

−22.5

W 78-59

−4.5

VAN

L 82-86

+21.5

AUB

W 72-62

−10.5

VAN

L 68-75

−4.5

M-OH

W 78-56

−14.5

UVA

W 79-72

+13.5

ISU

W 76-62

−1.5

MICH

L 62-95

+10.5

over 18under 19avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Michigan St 0, Tennessee 0, even 5

Michigan StBetterTennessee

G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99

Even

G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99

G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63

Even

G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63

F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85

Even

G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83

F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53

Even

F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53

C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80

Even

C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83

Michigan StBetterTennessee

MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6

Even

TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2

MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3

Even

TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4

Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players

TENNSmall

Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players

MSUSmall

Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players

Bench+0.9 · 4 players

TENNBig

Bench+11.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMSU betterTENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Michigan St

Guards

J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew

Forwards

C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min

Centers

A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew

Tennessee

Guards

J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min

Forwards

B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew

Centers

M. Rubin30 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MSU78.8 #84

TENN78.8 #81

Points per possession

MSU1.17 #40

TENN1.16 #49

Pace (possessions)

MSU67.3 #264

TENN68.1 #226

Shooting

Effective FG%

MSU53.8 #72

TENN51.4 #174

3-point %

MSU36.3 #47

TENN33.4 #201

3-point attempt rate

MSU36.4 #241

TENN32.1 #328

Free throw rate

MSU35.9 #157

TENN37.4 #115

Possessions

Turnover rate

MSU17.1 #217

TENN17.4 #227

Offensive rebound rate

MSU37.8 #10

TENN44.7 #1

Assists per game

MSU18.6 #4

TENN17.1 #24

Defense

Points allowed

MSU68.3 #37

TENN69.6 #58

Points allowed per possession

MSU1.02 #40

TENN1.02 #43

Opponent effective FG%

MSU48.9 #61

TENN47.8 #37

Opponent 3-point %

MSU33.0 #119

TENN30.5 #21

Turnovers forced

MSU14.9 #296

TENN16.1 #215

Defensive rebound rate

MSU77.6 #1

TENN72.2 #61

Steals per game

MSU5.1 #328

TENN7.3 #101

Blocks per game

MSU4.1 #59

TENN3.7 #114

MSU		TENN
Scoring
78.8 #84	Points per game	78.8 #81
1.17 #40	Points per possession	1.16 #49
67.3 #264	Pace (possessions)	68.1 #226
Shooting
53.8 #72	Effective FG%	51.4 #174
36.3 #47	3-point %	33.4 #201
36.4 #241	3-point attempt rate	32.1 #328
35.9 #157	Free throw rate	37.4 #115
Possessions
17.1 #217	Turnover rate	17.4 #227
37.8 #10	Offensive rebound rate	44.7 #1
18.6 #4	Assists per game	17.1 #24
Defense
68.3 #37	Points allowed	69.6 #58
1.02 #40	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #43
48.9 #61	Opponent effective FG%	47.8 #37
33.0 #119	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #21
14.9 #296	Turnovers forced	16.1 #215
77.6 #1	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #61
5.1 #328	Steals per game	7.3 #101
4.1 #59	Blocks per game	3.7 #114

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn63–67
Wvs Louisville77–69
Wvs N Dakota St92–67
Lvs UCLA84–88
L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan62–95
Wvs Iowa State76–62
Wvs Virginia79–72
Wvs Miami OH78–56
Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.

Michigan State Spartans at Tennessee Volunteers

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Michigan St

Tennessee

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Michigan St

Tennessee