1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. SOU @ ISU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Southern Jaguars at Iowa State Cyclones

Hilton Coliseum · at Iowa State
#309SOUSouthern
@
#13ISUIowa State AP #18
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SOUThis seasonISU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 93–55 · win probability ISU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

SOU 0, ISU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ISUBig
SOU offense vs ISU defense
Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
ISUBig
ISU offense vs SOU defense
Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ISUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8
ISUBig
Three-pointers
SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 32.0% and 38.8% of their shots
ISUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, ISU 71.4%
ISUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: SOU 8, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points
ISUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, ISU 22.6%
ISUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, ISU 34.5. Allowed: SOU 42.9, ISU 28.1
ISUSmall
Home court
ISU at home. This season: ISU 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ISU -37.5—
Total—147.8—
Projected score—SOU 55.1 · ISU 92.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadISU -22.2—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreSOU 23.5 · ISU 45.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, Iowa State 5, even 0
SouthernBetterIowa State
G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42
ISUBig
G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84
G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14
ISUBig
G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
ISUBig
G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98
F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
ISUBig
G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
ISUBig
G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
SouthernBetterIowa State
SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2
ISUBig
ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3
SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0
ISUBig
ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players
ISUBig
Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-3.3 · 4 players
ISUBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSOU betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern
Guards
J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew
Forwards
R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew
Centers
I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min
Iowa State
Guards
R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min
Forwards
T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SOUISU
Scoring
76.2 #136Points per game82.0 #32
1.06 #239Points per possession1.19 #20
72.3 #28Pace (possessions)68.5 #204
Shooting
49.1 #287Effective FG%56.2 #20
34.8 #1293-point %38.3 #12
32.0 #3293-point attempt rate38.8 #196
39.8 #61Free throw rate34.5 #194
Possessions
16.6 #169Turnover rate14.9 #58
31.4 #144Offensive rebound rate35.1 #45
13.9 #156Assists per game17.4 #16
Defense
80.2 #324Points allowed65.6 #9
1.11 #236Points allowed per possession0.96 #4
53.2 #274Opponent effective FG%49.8 #92
36.7 #339Opponent 3-point %32.0 #63
18.6 #67Turnovers forced22.6 #4
68.7 #217Defensive rebound rate71.4 #85
8.3 #26Steals per game9.0 #9
3.8 #97Blocks per game2.6 #289
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View66–72
  • Wvs Florida A&M73–70
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
  • W@ Alabama A&M88–85
  • W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee62–76
  • Wvs Kentucky82–63
  • Wvs Tennessee St108–74
  • Lvs Arizona80–82
  • Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.