Green Bay Phoenix at Northern Iowa Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ETMcLeod Center · at Northern Iowa

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Green Bay and Northern Iowa
GB	This season	UNI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNI 75–66 · win probability UNI 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

GB 2, UNI 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GB 15.9%, UNI 14.5%. Forced: GB 13.2%, UNI 18.0%

UNIBig

GB offense vs UNI defense

Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

GB has played the 255th-hardest schedule, UNI the 133rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GB 54.9 and allows 53.6; UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5

UNIBig

Three-pointers

GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%; UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%. Threes are 37.3% and 39.1% of their shots

GBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GB 41.6, UNI 25.6. Allowed: GB 37.4, UNI 29.6

GBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GB 40%, UNI 10%. Transfers in: GB 3, UNI 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNISmall

Home court

UNI at home. This season: UNI 0-0 at home, GB 0-0 away

UNISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GB 25.1%, UNI 21.8%. Defensive: GB 70.4%, UNI 73.5%

Even

UNI offense vs GB defense

Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: GB plays 65.2 a game (339th fastest), UNI 63.9 (361st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNI -9.2	—
Total	—	141.2	—
Projected score	—	GB 66 · UNI 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -5.3	—
1H total	66.1	—
1H projected score	GB 30.4 · UNI 35.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLWWL	19-12	61%	8-7	—
UNI LWLWL	19-16	54%	8-8	—

Venue/role: GB away; UNI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UUOUO	16-15	52%	16-15
UNI UUOOU	14-21	40%	22-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UNI	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ UWF	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ FSU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ KC	W70–64WO

Northern Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ MSU	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ OAK	W75–63WU
Nov 17	vs LIN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Green Bay

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L L L L W W L L W W L W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L L L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L W W L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U O U U U O O O O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KU	L 51-94	+30.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@BUF	L 76-83	+3.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 13	@STMN	L 61-80	+13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@MINN	L 65-72	+25.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsYALE	L 67-73	+17.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 22	vsMASS	W 79-75	+5.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 154
Nov 24	vsIONA	W 80-75	+5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 155
Dec 4	vsRMU	L 78-80	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 158
Dec 7	@WRST	L 58-86	+6.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 11	@IUIN	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 17	vsUCSB	W 67-64	+7.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 23	@CAM	L 79-102	+5.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 181
Jan 1	@PFW	W 72-54	+8.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 126
Jan 5	vsMILW	W 79-76	+3.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsIUIN	W 75-59	-6.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNKU	W 80-78	+4.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 15	@CLE	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 18	vsOAK	L 63-88	+4.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 22	@YSU	L 81-88	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	@RMU	W 71-67	+6.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 30	vsCLE	L 82-89	-7.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 171
Feb 1	vsWRST	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 158
Feb 4	@NKU	W 87-84	+7.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsDETM	W 76-63	-3.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsPFW	W 76-59	+1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 135
Feb 15	@MILW	L 72-75	+2.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@OAK	W 73-68	+6.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 22	@DETM	L 70-74	+1.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsYSU	W 85-63	-1.5	W +20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 3	vsPFW	W 64-56	-3.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 120
Mar 8	vsNKU	L 76-96	+3.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-94

−12.5

BUF

L 76-83

−3.5

STMN

L 61-80

−5.5

MINN

L 65-72

+18.5

YALE

L 67-73

+11.5

MASS

W 79-75

+9.5

IONA

W 80-75

+10.5

RMU

L 78-80

−0.5

WRST

L 58-86

−21.5

IUIN

W 85-75

+13.5

UCSB

W 67-64

+10.5

CAM

L 79-102

−17.5

PFW

W 72-54

+26.5

MILW

W 79-76

+6.5

IUIN

W 75-59

+9.5

NKU

W 80-78

+6.5

CLE

W 88-73

+11.5

OAK

L 63-88

−20.5

YSU

L 81-88

+0.5

RMU

W 71-67

+10.5

CLE

L 82-89

−14.5

WRST

L 75-83

−4.5

NKU

W 87-84

+10.5

DETM

W 76-63

+9.5

PFW

W 76-59

+18.5

MILW

L 72-75

−0.5

OAK

W 73-68

+11.5

DETM

L 70-74

−2.5

YSU

W 85-63

+20.5

PFW

W 64-56

+4.5

NKU

L 76-96

−16.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-94

−7.5

BUF

L 76-83

+11.5

STMN

L 61-80

−9.5

MINN

L 65-72

−9.5

YALE

L 67-73

−8.5

MASS

W 79-75

+7.5

IONA

W 80-75

+4.5

RMU

L 78-80

+17.5

WRST

L 58-86

+1.5

IUIN

W 85-75

−5.5

UCSB

W 67-64

−9.5

CAM

L 79-102

+35.5

PFW

W 72-54

−19.5

MILW

W 79-76

+10.5

IUIN

W 75-59

−22.5

NKU

W 80-78

+13.5

CLE

W 88-73

+10.5

OAK

L 63-88

−2.5

YSU

L 81-88

+29.5

RMU

W 71-67

−4.5

CLE

L 82-89

+20.5

WRST

L 75-83

+13.5

NKU

W 87-84

+21.5

DETM

W 76-63

−10.5

PFW

W 76-59

−9.5

MILW

L 72-75

+1.5

OAK

W 73-68

−12.5

DETM

L 70-74

−3.5

YSU

W 85-63

+6.5

PFW

W 64-56

−25.5

NKU

L 76-96

+25.5

over 16under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northern Iowa

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

W W W W W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W L W L W W L L W W W W L W L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2140%

U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O O O U U O U U U O O O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsWICH	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsOAK	W 75-63	-8.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@UIC	W 60-54	-5.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 22	@SMC	L 58-63	+11.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 29	vsVAL	W 58-48	-8.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	vsINST	W 75-66	-10.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@EVAN	W 62-48	-4.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsBEL	L 65-78	-2.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@BRAD	L 69-75	+4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 144
Jan 13	vsUIC	L 61-69	-6.5	L −14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	@VAL	L 44-54	-1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	@ILST	L 54-59	+6.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	vsMUR	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 28	@SIU	L 50-65	-1.5	L −16.5	130.5	U 115
Jan 31	vsEVAN	W 71-55	-11.5	W +4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 6	vsBRAD	W 61-49	-3.5	W +8.5	134.5	U 110
Feb 9	@MUR	W 89-60	+4.5	W +33.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 12	@BEL	L 86-91	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	vsDRKE	W 86-62	-8.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	@INST	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsSIU	L 57-59	-6.5	L −8.5	134.5	U 116
Feb 25	vsILST	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	@DRKE	W 75-53	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsEVAN	W 68-59	-13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsILST	W 74-52	-1.5	W +20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsBRAD	W 73-69	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsUIC	W 84-69	-2.5	W +12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 20	vsSJU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

WICH

L 69-74

−6.5

OAK

W 75-63

+3.5

UIC

W 60-54

+0.5

SMC

L 58-63

+6.5

VAL

W 58-48

+1.5

INST

W 75-66

−1.5

EVAN

W 62-48

+9.5

BEL

L 65-78

−15.5

BRAD

L 69-75

−1.5

UIC

L 61-69

−14.5

VAL

L 44-54

−11.5

ILST

L 54-59

+1.5

MUR

W 81-76

+6.5

SIU

L 50-65

−16.5

EVAN

W 71-55

+4.5

BRAD

W 61-49

+8.5

MUR

W 89-60

+33.5

BEL

L 86-91

−0.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+15.5

INST

W 81-60

+15.5

SIU

L 57-59

−8.5

ILST

L 69-71

−6.5

DRKE

W 75-53

+17.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−4.5

ILST

W 74-52

+20.5

BRAD

W 73-69

−0.5

UIC

W 84-69

+12.5

SJU

L 53-79

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

WICH

L 69-74

+7.5

OAK

W 75-63

−11.5

UIC

W 60-54

−19.5

SMC

L 58-63

−11.5

VAL

W 58-48

−25.5

INST

W 75-66

+5.5

EVAN

W 62-48

−21.5

BEL

L 65-78

+5.5

BRAD

L 69-75

+12.5

UIC

L 61-69

+1.5

VAL

L 44-54

−32.5

ILST

L 54-59

−19.5

MUR

W 81-76

+11.5

SIU

L 50-65

−15.5

EVAN

W 71-55

−2.5

BRAD

W 61-49

−24.5

MUR

W 89-60

+3.5

BEL

L 86-91

+38.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+9.5

INST

W 81-60

+4.5

SIU

L 57-59

−18.5

ILST

L 69-71

+7.5

DRKE

W 75-53

−9.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−0.5

ILST

W 74-52

−4.5

BRAD

W 73-69

+14.5

UIC

W 84-69

+27.5

SJU

L 53-79

−1.5

over 14under 21avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Iowa has the better starters

Position by position: Green Bay 2, Northern Iowa 3, even 0

Green BayBetterNorthern Iowa

G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85

GBBig

G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21

G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

UNIBig

G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8

UNIBig

G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49

UNISmall

F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67

F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71

GBBig

F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14

Green BayBetterNorthern Iowa

GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7

UNIBig

UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3

GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0

Even

UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players

GBSmall

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Bench-3.9 · 4 players

UNISmall

Bench-1.6 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestGB betterUNI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Green Bay

Guards

O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew

Forwards

M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew

Centers

M. Cicic11 min

Northern Iowa

Guards

T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew

Forwards

I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GB73.9 #201

UNI68.6 #303

Points per possession

GB1.13 #83

UNI1.08 #198

Pace (possessions)

GB65.2 #339

UNI63.9 #361

Shooting

Effective FG%

GB54.9 #41

UNI53.8 #73

3-point %

GB36.4 #42

UNI34.7 #136

3-point attempt rate

GB37.3 #224

UNI39.1 #189

Free throw rate

GB41.6 #36

UNI25.6 #362

Possessions

Turnover rate

GB15.9 #133

UNI14.5 #41

Offensive rebound rate

GB25.1 #339

UNI21.8 #357

Assists per game

GB13.7 #172

UNI14.6 #114

Defense

Points allowed

GB75.9 #215

UNI62.5 #2

Points allowed per possession

GB1.17 #338

UNI0.98 #12

Opponent effective FG%

GB53.6 #287

UNI47.5 #31

Opponent 3-point %

GB36.3 #316

UNI29.1 #3

Turnovers forced

GB13.2 #350

UNI18.0 #97

Defensive rebound rate

GB70.4 #140

UNI73.5 #24

Steals per game

GB4.2 #361

UNI6.2 #212

Blocks per game

GB2.7 #282

UNI3.1 #211

GB		UNI
Scoring
73.9 #201	Points per game	68.6 #303
1.13 #83	Points per possession	1.08 #198
65.2 #339	Pace (possessions)	63.9 #361
Shooting
54.9 #41	Effective FG%	53.8 #73
36.4 #42	3-point %	34.7 #136
37.3 #224	3-point attempt rate	39.1 #189
41.6 #36	Free throw rate	25.6 #362
Possessions
15.9 #133	Turnover rate	14.5 #41
25.1 #339	Offensive rebound rate	21.8 #357
13.7 #172	Assists per game	14.6 #114
Defense
75.9 #215	Points allowed	62.5 #2
1.17 #338	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #12
53.6 #287	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #31
36.3 #316	Opponent 3-point %	29.1 #3
13.2 #350	Turnovers forced	18.0 #97
70.4 #140	Defensive rebound rate	73.5 #24
4.2 #361	Steals per game	6.2 #212
2.7 #282	Blocks per game	3.1 #211

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Kentucky76–96
Wvs Purdue FW64–56
Wvs Youngstown St85–63
L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's53–79
Wvs UIC84–69
Wvs Bradley73–69
Wvs Illinois St74–52
Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Green Bay Phoenix at Northern Iowa Panthers

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Green Bay

Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Green Bay

Northern Iowa