Southern Jaguars at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ETThe Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern and Minnesota
SOU	This season	MINN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MINN 82–58 · win probability MINN 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

SOU 1, MINN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MINNBig

SOU offense vs MINN defense

Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINNBig

MINN offense vs SOU defense

Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points

MINNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9

MINNBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: SOU 8, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MINNBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, MINN 35.8. Allowed: SOU 42.9, MINN 26.9

MINNSmall

Home court

MINN at home. This season: MINN 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away

SOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, MINN 16.8%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, MINN 70.5%

Even

Three-pointers

SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 32.0% and 47.1% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MINN -23.8	—
Total	—	139.8	—
Projected score	—	SOU 58 · MINN 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -14.0	—
1H total	65.4	—
1H projected score	SOU 25.7 · MINN 39.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SOU WWLWL	12-19	39%	8-11	—
MINN WLLLL	13-20	39%	8-9	—

Venue/role: SOU away; MINN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SOU UOOOU	20-11	65%	14-17
MINN OUUOU	12-21	36%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ NEB	L43–77LU
Nov 27	@ VAN	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ FRES	No recent meeting

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs WIU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs OKST	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs UTAH	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L L L W L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W W L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

L W W L L L W W L L W L L W W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O O O U O O O U O U O O U U U U O O O O U O U O O O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ARK	L 77-109	+26.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 5	@MARQ	L 82-100	+24.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 18	@WASH	L 93-99	+23.5	W +17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 21	@SJSU	L 66-80	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 29	@NWST	W 75-73	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 8	@TEX	L 69-95	+22.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 164
Dec 10	@TXST	L 83-86	+3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 16	@CBU	L 67-75	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 21	@BAY	L 67-111	+26.5	L −17.5	169.5	O 178
Dec 29	@ILL	L 55-90	+33.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsTXSO	W 84-73	-6.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	vsPV	L 85-89	-7.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 174
Jan 10	@FAMU	L 59-67	-4.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 126
Jan 12	@BCU	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 150
Jan 17	@GRAM	W 71-53	+1.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 124
Jan 24	vsUAPB	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 149
Jan 28	vsMVSU	W 80-69	-20.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 31	@ALCN	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 2	@JKST	W 96-91	-5.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	vsAAMU	W 81-68	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	vsALST	W 69-68	-6.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 14	@PV	W 87-82	-5.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 16	@TXSO	L 73-74	-4.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 21	vsGRAM	W 87-73	-5.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsFAMU	L 71-82	-8.5	L −19.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 28	vsBCU	L 79-82	-2.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 161
Mar 3	@ALST	W 71-64	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 135
Mar 5	@AAMU	W 88-85	-1.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsUAPB	W 84-81	-4.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 165
Mar 13	vsFAMU	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 143
Mar 14	vsPV	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARK

L 77-109

−5.5

MARQ

L 82-100

+6.5

WASH

L 93-99

+17.5

SJSU

L 66-80

−8.5

NWST

W 75-73

−1.5

TEX

L 69-95

−3.5

TXST

L 83-86

+0.5

CBU

L 67-75

+4.5

BAY

L 67-111

−17.5

ILL

L 55-90

−1.5

TXSO

W 84-73

+4.5

L 85-89

−11.5

FAMU

L 59-67

−12.5

BCU

W 77-73

+7.5

GRAM

W 71-53

+19.5

UAPB

L 74-75

−10.5

MVSU

W 80-69

−9.5

ALCN

L 73-78

−12.5

JKST

W 96-91

−0.5

AAMU

W 81-68

+6.5

ALST

W 69-68

−5.5

W 87-82

−0.5

TXSO

L 73-74

−5.5

GRAM

W 87-73

+8.5

FAMU

L 71-82

−19.5

BCU

L 79-82

−5.5

ALST

W 71-64

+8.5

AAMU

W 88-85

+1.5

UAPB

W 84-81

−1.5

FAMU

W 73-70

+1.5

L 66-72

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARK

L 77-109

+35.5

MARQ

L 82-100

+26.5

WASH

L 93-99

+34.5

SJSU

L 66-80

−4.5

NWST

W 75-73

+3.5

TEX

L 69-95

+5.5

TXST

L 83-86

+26.5

CBU

L 67-75

−13.5

BAY

L 67-111

+8.5

ILL

L 55-90

−18.5

TXSO

W 84-73

+3.5

L 85-89

+13.5

FAMU

L 59-67

−27.5

BCU

W 77-73

−1.5

GRAM

W 71-53

−29.5

UAPB

L 74-75

−5.5

MVSU

W 80-69

+7.5

ALCN

L 73-78

+3.5

JKST

W 96-91

+34.5

AAMU

W 81-68

+5.5

ALST

W 69-68

−12.5

W 87-82

+9.5

TXSO

L 73-74

−4.5

GRAM

W 87-73

+17.5

FAMU

L 71-82

+5.5

BCU

L 79-82

+7.5

ALST

W 71-64

−18.5

AAMU

W 88-85

+27.5

UAPB

W 84-81

+13.5

FAMU

W 73-70

+1.5

L 66-72

−7.5

over 20under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-2039%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L W W L L W L L W L W L L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U O O U O O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 3	@NU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsIOWA	W 70-67	+4.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 9	vsUSC	L 69-70	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsWIS	L 75-78	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	@ILL	L 67-77	+15.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 20	@OSU	L 74-82	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 24	vsNEB	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 28	@WIS	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 1	@PSU	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 4	vsMSU	W 76-73	+8.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 8	vsMD	L 62-67	-10.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@WASH	L 57-69	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 17	@ORE	W 61-44	+3.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	vsRUTG	W 80-61	-8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	@MICH	L 67-77	+22.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 4	@IU	L 47-77	+7.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsNU	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsRUTG	L 67-72	-6.5	L −11.5	135.5	O 139
Apr 1	vsBAY	L 48-67	+3.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

W 84-78

+10.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+7.5

USC

L 69-70

−4.5

WIS

L 75-78

−1.5

ILL

L 67-77

+5.5

OSU

L 74-82

−0.5

NEB

L 57-76

−14.5

WIS

L 63-67

+5.5

PSU

L 75-77

−4.5

MSU

W 76-73

+11.5

L 62-67

−15.5

WASH

L 57-69

−5.5

ORE

W 61-44

+20.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+10.5

MICH

L 67-77

+12.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+6.5

L 47-77

−22.5

W 67-66

−3.5

RUTG

L 67-72

−11.5

BAY

L 48-67

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

W 84-78

+23.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+6.5

USC

L 69-70

−8.5

WIS

L 75-78

+6.5

ILL

L 67-77

+1.5

OSU

L 74-82

+12.5

NEB

L 57-76

−7.5

WIS

L 63-67

−16.5

PSU

L 75-77

+9.5

MSU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 62-67

−9.5

WASH

L 57-69

−12.5

ORE

W 61-44

−31.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+4.5

MICH

L 67-77

−1.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+14.5

L 47-77

−14.5

W 67-66

−0.5

RUTG

L 67-72

+3.5

BAY

L 48-67

−31.5

over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Minnesota has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, Minnesota 5, even 0

SouthernBetterMinnesota

G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42

MINNSmall

G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64

G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14

MINNSmall

G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9

MINNBig

F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42

MINNBig

F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81

C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20

MINNBig

F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

SouthernBetterMinnesota

SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2

MINNBig

MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2

SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0

MINNBig

MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players

MINNBig

Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

MINNBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players

Bench-3.3 · 4 players

MINNSmall

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSOU betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern

Guards

J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew

Forwards

R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew

Centers

I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min

Minnesota

Guards

I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR

Forwards

B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew

Centers

M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SOU76.2 #136

MINN69.4 #294

Points per possession

SOU1.06 #239

MINN1.10 #147

Pace (possessions)

SOU72.3 #28

MINN63.6 #362

Shooting

Effective FG%

SOU49.1 #287

MINN53.9 #69

3-point %

SOU34.8 #129

MINN34.1 #164

3-point attempt rate

SOU32.0 #329

MINN47.1 #31

Free throw rate

SOU39.8 #61

MINN35.8 #159

Possessions

Turnover rate

SOU16.6 #169

MINN16.6 #170

Offensive rebound rate

SOU31.4 #144

MINN26.8 #304

Assists per game

SOU13.9 #156

MINN17.0 #25

Defense

Points allowed

SOU80.2 #324

MINN68.5 #38

Points allowed per possession

SOU1.11 #236

MINN1.07 #139

Opponent effective FG%

SOU53.2 #274

MINN51.9 #207

Opponent 3-point %

SOU36.7 #339

MINN34.6 #229

Turnovers forced

SOU18.6 #67

MINN16.8 #168

Defensive rebound rate

SOU68.7 #217

MINN70.5 #137

Steals per game

SOU8.3 #26

MINN6.3 #197

Blocks per game

SOU3.8 #97

MINN2.7 #284

SOU		MINN
Scoring
76.2 #136	Points per game	69.4 #294
1.06 #239	Points per possession	1.10 #147
72.3 #28	Pace (possessions)	63.6 #362
Shooting
49.1 #287	Effective FG%	53.9 #69
34.8 #129	3-point %	34.1 #164
32.0 #329	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #31
39.8 #61	Free throw rate	35.8 #159
Possessions
16.6 #169	Turnover rate	16.6 #170
31.4 #144	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #304
13.9 #156	Assists per game	17.0 #25
Defense
80.2 #324	Points allowed	68.5 #38
1.11 #236	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #139
53.2 #274	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #207
36.7 #339	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #229
18.6 #67	Turnovers forced	16.8 #168
68.7 #217	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #137
8.3 #26	Steals per game	6.3 #197
3.8 #97	Blocks per game	2.7 #284

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View66–72
Wvs Florida A&M73–70
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
W@ Alabama A&M88–85
W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Baylor48–67
Lvs Rutgers67–72
Wvs Northwestern67–66
L@ Indiana47–77
Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.

Southern Jaguars at Minnesota Golden Gophers

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern

Minnesota

Minnesota has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern

Minnesota