1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 12
  3. LMU vs USA
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 12

Loyola Marymount Lions vs South Alabama Jaguars

Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
#121LMULMU
vs
#227USASouth Alabama
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LMUThis seasonUSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LMU 75–69 · win probability LMU 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LMU 2, USA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LMU 17.4%, USA 13.1%. Forced: LMU 16.6%, USA 18.0%
USABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LMU 31.1, USA 38.5. Allowed: LMU 32.5, USA 25.4
LMUBig
USA offense vs LMU defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LMU has played the 131st-hardest schedule, USA the 223rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
LMUSmall
LMU offense vs USA defense
Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LMU plays 68.9 a game (185th fastest), USA 67.1 (277th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%; USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 40.4% and 36.5% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9; USA 52.6 and allows 50.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LMU 22%, USA 21%. Transfers in: LMU 8, USA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LMU 26.7%, USA 25.0%. Defensive: LMU 68.0%, USA 68.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LMU -6.6—
Total—143.8—
Projected score—LMU 75.2 · USA 68.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLMU -4.1—
1H total67.3—
1H projected scoreLMU 35.7 · USA 31.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: LMU 0, South Alabama 2, even 3
LMUBetterSouth Alabama
G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72
No call
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
No call
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
No call
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50
USABig
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48
USABig
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
LMUBetterSouth Alabama
LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6
LMUSmall
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0
LMUBig
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players
No call
BackcourtNo numbers yet
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
USABig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
Bench+1.1 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestLMU betterUSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
LMU
Guards
Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min
Forwards
C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LMUUSA
Scoring
72.2 #236Points per game73.2 #218
1.04 #263Points per possession1.10 #139
68.9 #185Pace (possessions)67.1 #277
Shooting
51.9 #152Effective FG%52.6 #120
34.8 #1303-point %34.5 #146
40.4 #1623-point attempt rate36.5 #237
31.1 #280Free throw rate38.5 #89
Possessions
17.4 #234Turnover rate13.1 #8
26.7 #307Offensive rebound rate25.0 #341
12.7 #234Assists per game11.9 #287
Defense
72.7 #122Points allowed71.3 #85
1.06 #103Points allowed per possession1.06 #100
48.9 #60Opponent effective FG%50.1 #105
34.6 #225Opponent 3-point %33.1 #133
16.6 #178Turnovers forced18.0 #96
68.0 #258Defensive rebound rate68.6 #222
6.0 #236Steals per game7.9 #46
3.9 #81Blocks per game2.2 #330
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Diego62–66
  • Lvs Seattle U66–71
  • Wvs Washington St67–66
  • W@ San Diego77–65
  • L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.