Reed Arena · at Texas A&M
#45OKSTOklahoma St
@
#28TA&MTexas A&M
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Oklahoma St and Texas A&M
OKSTThis seasonTA&M
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TA&M 87–82 · win probability TA&M 67%
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 168.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TA&M has more of the edges

OKST 1, TA&M 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TA&MBig
Three-pointers
OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%; TA&M hits 35.9% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 35.5% and 46.2% of their shots
TA&MBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OKST 15.7%, TA&M 14.7%. Forced: OKST 15.7%, TA&M 18.4%
TA&MSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1; TA&M 53.8 and allows 50.7
TA&MSmall
TA&M offense vs OKST defense
Offense 20th of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
OKSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: OKST 39.4, TA&M 37.1. Allowed: OKST 31.4, TA&M 35.4
TA&MSmall
Home court
TA&M at home. This season: TA&M 0-0 at home, OKST 0-0 away
Even
OKST offense vs TA&M defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 62nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OKST 30.8%, TA&M 32.0%. Defensive: OKST 69.7%, TA&M 67.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OKST 41%, TA&M 25%. Transfers in: OKST 6, TA&M 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 74 possessions: OKST plays 74.8 a game (6th fastest), TA&M 73.5 (15th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
OKST has played the 60th-hardest schedule, TA&M the 57th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TA&M -4.9—
Total—168.1—
Projected score—OKST 81.6 · TA&M 86.5

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadTA&M -2.8—
1H total78.5—
1H projected scoreOKST 37.8 · TA&M 40.6—

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: Oklahoma St 3, Texas A&M 2, even 0
Oklahoma StBetterTexas A&M
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
TA&MSmall
G P. Haggerty TR23.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
OKSTSmall
G J. Pope TR13.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 78
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
TA&MBig
G T. Archie TR14.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 91
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
OKSTBig
G L. Walls TR7.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 37
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
OKSTSmall
F J. Shelley TR13.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 76
Oklahoma StBetterTexas A&M
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Even
TA&M defense62nd of 366 · +1.2
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
TA&MSmall
TA&M offense20th of 366 · +7.7
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
TA&MBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOKST betterTA&M betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
Texas A&M
Guards
P. Haggerty35 min · TRJ. Pope29 min · TRT. Archie26 min · TRL. Walls24 min · TRJ. Reece24 min · TRJ. Green5 min
Forwards
J. Shelley32 min · TRM. Mgbako19 minZ. Clemence17 minC. Phillips17 min · TRJ. Vinson7 minC. McDermott4 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OKSTTA&M
Scoring
83.9 #21Points per game86.1 #12
1.12 #110Points per possession1.17 #43
74.8 #6Pace (possessions)73.5 #15
Shooting
52.0 #144Effective FG%53.8 #71
33.9 #1763-point %35.9 #63
35.5 #2603-point attempt rate46.2 #42
39.4 #70Free throw rate37.1 #128
Possessions
15.7 #117Turnover rate14.7 #48
30.8 #169Offensive rebound rate32.0 #122
14.6 #113Assists per game17.8 #11
Defense
83.2 #349Points allowed78.9 #296
1.12 #265Points allowed per possession1.08 #151
53.1 #272Opponent effective FG%50.7 #141
36.0 #304Opponent 3-point %31.8 #53
15.7 #240Turnovers forced18.4 #81
69.7 #178Defensive rebound rate67.0 #300
7.1 #120Steals per game8.1 #34
2.7 #285Blocks per game3.1 #210

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.

Texas A&M

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Houston57–88
  • Wvs Saint Mary's63–50
  • Lvs Oklahoma63–83
  • W@ LSU94–91
  • Wvs Kentucky96–85

A week or more of rest.