1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 12
  3. NIA @ BGSU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 12

Niagara Purple Eagles at Bowling Green Falcons

Stroh Center · at Bowling Green
#346NIANiagara
@
#200BGSUBowling Green
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIAThis seasonBGSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BGSU 78–65 · win probability BGSU 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

NIA 0, BGSU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BGSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, BGSU 28.7%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, BGSU 73.1%
Context
Schedule so far
NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, BGSU the 192nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), BGSU 70.5 (96th). Faster games mean more points
BGSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, BGSU 16.4%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, BGSU 18.5%
BGSUBig
NIA offense vs BGSU defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings
BGSUSmall
BGSU offense vs NIA defense
Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
BGSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0
BGSUSmall
Three-pointers
NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 40.5% and 34.2% of their shots
BGSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, BGSU 37.0. Allowed: NIA 33.8, BGSU 37.2
BGSUSmall
Home court
BGSU at home. This season: BGSU 0-0 at home, NIA 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, BGSU 24%. Transfers in: NIA 5, BGSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BGSU -13.4—
Total—142.8—
Projected score—NIA 64.7 · BGSU 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBGSU -7.9—
1H total66.8—
1H projected scoreNIA 29.5 · BGSU 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Bowling Green has the better starters

Position by position: Niagara 0, Bowling Green 3, even 2
NiagaraBetterBowling Green
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
BGSUBig
G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
BGSUSmall
G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
BGSUBig
G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
No call
F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
No call
F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
NiagaraBetterBowling Green
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
BGSUSmall
BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
BGSUSmall
BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
BGSUBig
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNIA betterBGSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
Bowling Green
Guards
J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min
Forwards
A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIABGSU
Scoring
63.3 #355Points per game76.8 #124
1.00 #330Points per possession1.08 #177
63.4 #364Pace (possessions)70.5 #96
Shooting
50.5 #214Effective FG%51.8 #153
33.7 #1883-point %34.4 #148
40.5 #1593-point attempt rate34.2 #289
26.6 #353Free throw rate37.0 #129
Possessions
18.9 #318Turnover rate16.4 #164
24.8 #344Offensive rebound rate28.7 #244
13.8 #162Assists per game13.1 #203
Defense
71.7 #98Points allowed72.7 #127
1.13 #300Points allowed per possession1.04 #71
52.8 #260Opponent effective FG%51.0 #163
35.3 #268Opponent 3-point %33.5 #161
16.6 #177Turnovers forced18.5 #73
67.1 #297Defensive rebound rate73.1 #31
5.6 #284Steals per game8.2 #30
2.8 #254Blocks per game3.5 #138
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo76–77
  • W@ E Michigan77–69
  • Wvs UMass81–62
  • Lvs W Michigan79–88
  • L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.