1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. NIA @ ISU
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Niagara Purple Eagles at Iowa State Cyclones

Hilton Coliseum · at Iowa State
#346NIANiagara
@
#13ISUIowa State AP #18
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIAThis seasonISU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 90–50 · win probability ISU 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 140.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

NIA 0, ISU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ISUBig
NIA offense vs ISU defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, ISU 71.4%
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ISU offense vs NIA defense
Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
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Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, ISU 22.6%
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Three-pointers
NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 40.5% and 38.8% of their shots
ISUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8
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Free throws
Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, ISU 34.5. Allowed: NIA 33.8, ISU 28.1
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points
ISUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: NIA 5, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ISUSmall
Home court
ISU at home. This season: ISU 0-0 at home, NIA 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ISU -40.4—
Total—140.1—
Projected score—NIA 49.9 · ISU 90.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadISU -23.9—
1H total65.6—
1H projected scoreNIA 20.8 · ISU 44.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Niagara 0, Iowa State 5, even 0
NiagaraBetterIowa State
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
ISUBig
G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
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G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
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G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
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G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
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G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
NiagaraBetterIowa State
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
ISUBig
ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
ISUBig
ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
ISUBig
Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
ISUBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNIA betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
Iowa State
Guards
R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min
Forwards
T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIAISU
Scoring
63.3 #355Points per game82.0 #32
1.00 #330Points per possession1.19 #20
63.4 #364Pace (possessions)68.5 #204
Shooting
50.5 #214Effective FG%56.2 #20
33.7 #1883-point %38.3 #12
40.5 #1593-point attempt rate38.8 #196
26.6 #353Free throw rate34.5 #194
Possessions
18.9 #318Turnover rate14.9 #58
24.8 #344Offensive rebound rate35.1 #45
13.8 #162Assists per game17.4 #16
Defense
71.7 #98Points allowed65.6 #9
1.13 #300Points allowed per possession0.96 #4
52.8 #260Opponent effective FG%49.8 #92
35.3 #268Opponent 3-point %32.0 #63
16.6 #177Turnovers forced22.6 #4
67.1 #297Defensive rebound rate71.4 #85
5.6 #284Steals per game9.0 #9
2.8 #254Blocks per game2.6 #289
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee62–76
  • Wvs Kentucky82–63
  • Wvs Tennessee St108–74
  • Lvs Arizona80–82
  • Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.