1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. BOIS vs NEB
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Boise State Broncos vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Sanford Pentagon · Neutral site
#86BOISBoise St
vs
#27NEBNebraska
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BOISThis seasonNEB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 79–69 · win probability NEB 81%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

BOIS 2, NEB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NEBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BOIS 16.9%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: BOIS 14.6%, NEB 18.9%
NEBBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1
BOISBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BOIS 33.2%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: BOIS 76.4%, NEB 72.6%
NEBBig
Three-pointers
BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 51.1% of their shots
BOISBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: BOIS 42.7, NEB 26.2. Allowed: BOIS 32.1, NEB 25.1
NEBSmall
BOIS offense vs NEB defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
NEB offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: BOIS plays 68.3 a game (215th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BOIS 34%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: BOIS 4, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
BOIS has played the 82nd-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NEB -10.0—
Total—147.8—
Projected score—BOIS 68.9 · NEB 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNEB -5.8—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreBOIS 31.7 · NEB 37.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Boise St 0, Nebraska 4, even 1
Boise StBetterNebraska
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
NEBSmall
G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
NEBSmall
F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
Even
F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
NEBSmall
F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
NEBSmall
F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93
Boise StBetterNebraska
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
NEBSmall
NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
Even
NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
NEBBig
Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
NEBBig
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBOIS betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
Nebraska
Guards
T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew
Forwards
P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BOISNEB
Scoring
77.4 #108Points per game77.0 #116
1.13 #82Points per possession1.15 #61
68.3 #215Pace (possessions)67.3 #267
Shooting
52.2 #138Effective FG%55.5 #28
34.3 #1513-point %35.5 #91
43.1 #1143-point attempt rate51.1 #9
42.7 #23Free throw rate26.2 #356
Possessions
16.9 #195Turnover rate14.5 #44
33.2 #85Offensive rebound rate26.7 #306
12.4 #258Assists per game18.0 #10
Defense
73.2 #137Points allowed66.1 #14
1.08 #145Points allowed per possession0.98 #13
52.6 #250Opponent effective FG%48.1 #40
34.4 #213Opponent 3-point %30.5 #19
14.6 #317Turnovers forced18.9 #54
76.4 #3Defensive rebound rate72.6 #47
4.6 #350Steals per game7.1 #112
2.1 #339Blocks per game2.5 #303
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa71–77
  • Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
  • Wvs Troy76–47
  • Lvs Purdue58–74
  • Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.