Louisville Cardinals vs Texas Tech Red Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Louisville and Texas Tech
LOU	This season	TTU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TTU 78–78 · win probability TTU 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LOU 1, TTU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LOU plays 71.0 a game (77th fastest), TTU 68.2 (222nd). Faster games mean more points

LOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LOU 32.8%, TTU 33.3%. Defensive: LOU 72.5%, TTU 69.4%

TTUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LOU 12%, TTU 45%. Transfers in: LOU 8, TTU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LOU 16.8%, TTU 15.8%. Forced: LOU 16.7%, TTU 14.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LOU 33.1, TTU 27.7. Allowed: LOU 33.0, TTU 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

LOU has played the 44th-hardest schedule, TTU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

LOU hits 36.0% and allows 32.3%; TTU hits 39.1% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 52.9% and 47.6% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LOU 56.5 and allows 48.7; TTU 56.1 and allows 49.7

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

TTU offense vs LOU defense

Offense 12th of 366 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

Even

LOU offense vs TTU defense

Offense 15th of 366 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LOU -0.0	—
Total	—	156.6	—
Projected score	—	LOU 78.3 · TTU 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LOU -0.1	—
1H total	73.2	—
1H projected score	LOU 36.7 · TTU 36.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LOU WLLWL	16-19	46%	4-3	—
TTU LLLWL	17-17	50%	3-5	—

Venue/role: LOU neutral site; TTU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUUOU	14-21	40%	24-11
TTU UUUOU	15-19	44%	23-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
TTU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs TEX	L80–81WO
Dec 5	vs MICH	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ UK	W96–88WO

Texas Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs OMA	W87–58WO
Dec 13	vs USC	No recent meeting
Dec 15	vs UIW	W84–62LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LOU 0–1 TTUTTU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LOU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2022-23	TTU 70 vs LOU 38	LOU +13.5	TTU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisville

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W W W W W W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L W W W W W L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

W L W L W W W L W W L W W L L L L W L L W L L W W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2140%

U O O O U U U O O O U U O U U U U O U U U U O O U O U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSCST	W 104-45	-35.5	W +23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 6	vsJKST	W 106-70	-38.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 11	vsUK	W 96-88	-5.5	W +2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 15	vsOHIO	W 106-81	-31.5	L −6.5	174.5	O 187
Nov 21	vsCIN	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsEMU	W 87-46	-33.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsNJIT	W 104-47	-44.5	W +12.5	158.5	U 151
Dec 3	@ARK	L 80-89	-1.5	L −10.5	166.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsIU	W 87-78	-3.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsMEM	W 99-73	-16.5	W +9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 16	@TENN	L 62-83	+4.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsMONT	W 94-54	-30.5	W +9.5	166.5	U 148
Dec 30	@CAL	W 90-70	-7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 160
Jan 2	@STAN	L 76-80	-7.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	vsDUKE	L 73-84	+1.5	L −9.5	161.5	U 157
Jan 10	vsBC	W 75-62	-21.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 137
Jan 13	vsUVA	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 149
Jan 17	@PITT	W 100-59	-7.5	W +33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	vsVT	W 85-71	-14.5	L −0.5	160.5	U 156
Jan 26	@DUKE	L 52-83	+8.5	L −22.5	157.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsSMU	W 88-74	-9.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 162
Feb 4	vsND	W 76-65	-19.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	@WAKE	W 88-80	-9.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 168
Feb 9	vsNCSU	W 118-77	-6.5	W +34.5	161.5	O 195
Feb 14	vsBAY	W 82-71	-7.5	W +3.5	162.5	U 153
Feb 17	@SMU	L 85-95	-4.5	L −14.5	168.5	O 180
Feb 21	vsGT	W 87-70	-23.5	L −6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 23	@UNC	L 74-77	-3.5	L −6.5	162.5	U 151
Feb 28	@CLEM	L 75-80	-2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	vsSYR	W 77-62	-14.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	@MIA	W 92-89	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 181
Mar 11	vsSMU	W 62-58	-7.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 120
Mar 12	vsMIA	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 151
Mar 19	vsUSF	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 162
Mar 21	vsMSU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCST

W 104-45

+23.5

JKST

W 106-70

−2.5

W 96-88

+2.5

OHIO

W 106-81

−6.5

CIN

W 74-64

+1.5

EMU

W 87-46

+7.5

NJIT

W 104-47

+12.5

ARK

L 80-89

−10.5

W 87-78

+5.5

MEM

W 99-73

+9.5

TENN

L 62-83

−16.5

MONT

W 94-54

+9.5

CAL

W 90-70

+12.5

STAN

L 76-80

−11.5

DUKE

L 73-84

−9.5

W 75-62

−8.5

UVA

L 70-79

−13.5

PITT

W 100-59

+33.5

W 85-71

−0.5

DUKE

L 52-83

−22.5

SMU

W 88-74

+4.5

W 76-65

−8.5

WAKE

W 88-80

−1.5

NCSU

W 118-77

+34.5

BAY

W 82-71

+3.5

SMU

L 85-95

−14.5

W 87-70

−6.5

UNC

L 74-77

−6.5

CLEM

L 75-80

−7.5

SYR

W 77-62

+0.5

MIA

W 92-89

+4.5

SMU

W 62-58

−3.5

MIA

L 73-78

−6.5

USF

W 83-79

+0.5

MSU

L 69-77

−2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCST

W 104-45

−10.5

JKST

W 106-70

+10.5

W 96-88

+10.5

OHIO

W 106-81

+12.5

CIN

W 74-64

−25.5

EMU

W 87-46

−29.5

NJIT

W 104-47

−7.5

ARK

L 80-89

+2.5

W 87-78

+2.5

MEM

W 99-73

+9.5

TENN

L 62-83

−11.5

MONT

W 94-54

−18.5

CAL

W 90-70

+0.5

STAN

L 76-80

−1.5

DUKE

L 73-84

−4.5

W 75-62

−13.5

UVA

L 70-79

−5.5

PITT

W 100-59

+6.5

W 85-71

−4.5

DUKE

L 52-83

−22.5

SMU

W 88-74

−1.5

W 76-65

−14.5

WAKE

W 88-80

+5.5

NCSU

W 118-77

+33.5

BAY

W 82-71

−9.5

SMU

L 85-95

+11.5

W 87-70

−10.5

UNC

L 74-77

−11.5

CLEM

L 75-80

+8.5

SYR

W 77-62

−20.5

MIA

W 92-89

+25.5

SMU

W 62-58

−44.5

MIA

L 73-78

−2.5

USF

W 83-79

+1.5

MSU

L 69-77

−5.5

over 14under 21avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas Tech

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

W W L W W L W W W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L L L L L W L W L L W W W W L L W W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1944%

O O U U O U U U U O O O U O U U O U O O O U U U U U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLIN	W 98-60	-29.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 7	vsSHSU	W 98-77	-31.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 11	@ILL	L 77-81	+3.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsMILW	W 80-63	-27.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsWAKE	W 84-83	-9.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsPUR	L 56-86	+3.5	L −26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsNOLA	W 82-50	-29.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 132
Nov 30	vsWYO	W 76-72	-19.5	L −15.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 7	vsLSU	W 82-58	-5.5	W +18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsARK	L 86-93	-2.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 16	vsUNCO	W 101-90	-25.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 191
Dec 20	vsDUKE	W 82-81	+9.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 28	vsWIN	W 87-57	-17.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsOKST	W 102-80	-12.5	W +9.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 6	@HOU	L 65-69	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@COLO	W 73-71	-5.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 144
Jan 14	vsUTAH	W 88-74	-17.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsBYU	W 84-71	-2.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 155
Jan 20	@BAY	W 92-73	-1.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsHOU	W 90-86	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 31	@UCF	L 80-88	-5.5	L −13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 2	vsKU	L 61-64	-3.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 8	@WVU	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsCOLO	W 78-44	-13.5	W +20.5	155.5	U 122
Feb 14	@ARIZ	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	156.5	U 153
Feb 17	@ASU	L 67-72	-7.5	L −12.5	156.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsKSU	W 100-72	-12.5	W +15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 24	vsCIN	W 80-68	-6.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 28	@ISU	W 82-73	+10.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 155
Mar 3	vsTCU	L 65-73	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 138
Mar 7	@BYU	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 158
Mar 12	vsISU	L 53-75	+7.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 20	vsAKR	W 91-71	-6.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 22	vsALA	L 65-90	+1.5	L −23.5	164.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+8.5

SHSU

W 98-77

−10.5

ILL

L 77-81

−0.5

MILW

W 80-63

−10.5

WAKE

W 84-83

−8.5

PUR

L 56-86

−26.5

NOLA

W 82-50

+2.5

WYO

W 76-72

−15.5

LSU

W 82-58

+18.5

ARK

L 86-93

−9.5

UNCO

W 101-90

−14.5

DUKE

W 82-81

+10.5

WIN

W 87-57

+12.5

OKST

W 102-80

+9.5

HOU

L 65-69

+3.5

COLO

W 73-71

−3.5

UTAH

W 88-74

−3.5

BYU

W 84-71

+10.5

BAY

W 92-73

+17.5

HOU

W 90-86

+5.5

UCF

L 80-88

−13.5

L 61-64

−6.5

WVU

W 70-63

+2.5

COLO

W 78-44

+20.5

ARIZ

W 78-75

+11.5

ASU

L 67-72

−12.5

KSU

W 100-72

+15.5

CIN

W 80-68

+5.5

ISU

W 82-73

+19.5

TCU

L 65-73

−16.5

BYU

L 76-82

−3.5

ISU

L 53-75

−14.5

AKR

W 91-71

+13.5

ALA

L 65-90

−23.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+11.5

SHSU

W 98-77

+18.5

ILL

L 77-81

−10.5

MILW

W 80-63

−22.5

WAKE

W 84-83

+6.5

PUR

L 56-86

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-50

−25.5

WYO

W 76-72

−4.5

LSU

W 82-58

−14.5

ARK

L 86-93

+23.5

UNCO

W 101-90

+38.5

DUKE

W 82-81

+10.5

WIN

W 87-57

−19.5

OKST

W 102-80

+14.5

HOU

L 65-69

−8.5

COLO

W 73-71

−17.5

UTAH

W 88-74

+2.5

BYU

W 84-71

−10.5

BAY

W 92-73

+10.5

HOU

W 90-86

+34.5

UCF

L 80-88

+8.5

L 61-64

−30.5

WVU

W 70-63

−6.5

COLO

W 78-44

−33.5

ARIZ

W 78-75

−3.5

ASU

L 67-72

−17.5

KSU

W 100-72

+13.5

CIN

W 80-68

+4.5

ISU

W 82-73

+9.5

TCU

L 65-73

−9.5

BYU

L 76-82

−1.5

ISU

L 53-75

−15.5

AKR

W 91-71

+7.5

ALA

L 65-90

−9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Louisville 0, Texas Tech 0, even 5

LouisvilleBetterTexas Tech

G J. Shelstad TR15.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 92

Even

G C. Davis TR20.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 91

G S. Trimble TR14 pts · 3.8 reb · 3 ast Score 90

Even

G D. Atwell13.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 88

G D. Montgomery TR13.4 pts · 4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 92

Even

G D. Gibbs-Lawhorn TR20.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 95

F F. Bidunga TR13.3 pts · 9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99

Even

F J. Toppin21.8 pts · 10.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 100

F L. Wells TR15.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 85

Even

F D. Williams TR14 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76

LouisvilleBetterTexas Tech

LOU offense15th of 366 · +9.3

Even

TTU defense12th of 366 · +6.6

LOU defense16th of 366 · +6.2

Even

TTU offense12th of 366 · +9.9

Backcourt+9.1 · 3 players

TTUSmall

Backcourt+10.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+9.2 · 2 players

TTUSmall

Frontcourt+10.8 · 2 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

TTUBig

Bench+7.2 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLOU betterTTU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Louisville

Guards

J. Shelstad35 min · TRS. Trimble33 min · TRD. Montgomery31 min · TRA. Wooley23 minK. Knox22 min · TRW. Hanke1 min

Forwards

F. Bidunga32 min · TRL. Wells31 min · TRA. Folgueiras21 min · TRB. ZhangNew

Centers

G. Dynes12 min · TRO. EkezieNew

Texas Tech

Guards

C. Davis39 min · TRD. Atwell35 minD. Gibbs-Lawhorn35 min · TRD. Dennis24 min · TRD. SpearNewA. BarrettNew

Forwards

J. Toppin35 minD. Williams30 min · TRJ. Stillwell28 min · TRJ. Moseley14 minM. Akuentok6 minL. HooverNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LOU84.2 #18

TTU80.3 #62

Points per possession

LOU1.18 #29

TTU1.18 #35

Pace (possessions)

LOU71.0 #77

TTU68.2 #222

Shooting

Effective FG%

LOU56.5 #14

TTU56.1 #21

3-point %

LOU36.0 #58

TTU39.1 #4

3-point attempt rate

LOU52.9 #4

TTU47.6 #29

Free throw rate

LOU33.1 #236

TTU27.7 #347

Possessions

Turnover rate

LOU16.8 #184

TTU15.8 #123

Offensive rebound rate

LOU32.8 #93

TTU33.3 #82

Assists per game

LOU17.1 #23

TTU15.7 #59

Defense

Points allowed

LOU72.5 #119

TTU73.1 #134

Points allowed per possession

LOU1.02 #49

TTU1.07 #138

Opponent effective FG%

LOU48.7 #54

TTU49.7 #86

Opponent 3-point %

LOU32.3 #76

TTU32.1 #67

Turnovers forced

LOU16.7 #172

TTU14.8 #305

Defensive rebound rate

LOU72.5 #50

TTU69.4 #186

Steals per game

LOU6.8 #148

TTU6.0 #239

Blocks per game

LOU3.3 #179

TTU3.8 #103

LOU		TTU
Scoring
84.2 #18	Points per game	80.3 #62
1.18 #29	Points per possession	1.18 #35
71.0 #77	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #222
Shooting
56.5 #14	Effective FG%	56.1 #21
36.0 #58	3-point %	39.1 #4
52.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	47.6 #29
33.1 #236	Free throw rate	27.7 #347
Possessions
16.8 #184	Turnover rate	15.8 #123
32.8 #93	Offensive rebound rate	33.3 #82
17.1 #23	Assists per game	15.7 #59
Defense
72.5 #119	Points allowed	73.1 #134
1.02 #49	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #138
48.7 #54	Opponent effective FG%	49.7 #86
32.3 #76	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #67
16.7 #172	Turnovers forced	14.8 #305
72.5 #50	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #186
6.8 #148	Steals per game	6.0 #239
3.3 #179	Blocks per game	3.8 #103

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisville

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan St69–77
Wvs South Florida83–79
Lvs Miami73–78
Wvs SMU62–58
W@ Miami92–89

A week or more of rest.

Texas Tech

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama65–90
Wvs Akron91–71
Lvs Iowa State53–75
L@ BYU76–82
Lvs TCU65–73

A week or more of rest.

Louisville Cardinals vs Texas Tech Red Raiders

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisville

Texas Tech

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Louisville

Texas Tech