Miami (OH) RedHawks at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Miami OH and Evansville
M-OH	This season	EVAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects M-OH 80–73 · win probability M-OH 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

M-OH 8, EVAN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

M-OHBig

Three-pointers

M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%; EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 45.6% and 43.1% of their shots

M-OHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2; EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1

M-OHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: M-OH 14.3%, EVAN 19.1%. Forced: M-OH 17.4%, EVAN 15.4%

M-OHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: M-OH 39.6, EVAN 29.8. Allowed: M-OH 30.2, EVAN 31.4

M-OHBig

M-OH offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: M-OH plays 72.1 a game (33rd fastest), EVAN 67.9 (232nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

M-OH has played the 207th-hardest schedule, EVAN the 127th. A record against a soft schedule means less

M-OHSmall

EVAN offense vs M-OH defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings

M-OHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: M-OH 65%, EVAN 35%. Transfers in: M-OH 3, EVAN 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

EVANSmall

Home court

EVAN at home. This season: EVAN 0-0 at home, M-OH 0-0 away

M-OHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: M-OH 25.5%, EVAN 22.0%. Defensive: M-OH 71.3%, EVAN 69.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	M-OH -7.2	—
Total	—	153.7	—
Projected score	—	M-OH 80.4 · EVAN 73.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	M-OH -4.4	—
1H total	71.8	—
1H projected score	M-OH 38.1 · EVAN 33.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LLLWL	19-12	61%	10-4	—
EVAN WLWLW	14-16	47%	5-8	—

Venue/role: M-OH away; EVAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOOOU	20-11	65%	29-2
EVAN OOOOU	15-15	50%	5-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
EVAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami OH

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs UIC	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs EKU	W79–69WU
Dec 2	vs CMU	W100–61WO

Evansville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs LEM	No recent meeting
Nov 22	@ MEM	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ MIZ	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

M-OH 0–2 EVANEVAN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · EVAN has won the last 2 meetings · M-OH 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	M-OH 64 @ EVAN 72	EVAN +2.5	EVAN W
Nov 7, 2022-23	EVAN 78 @ M-OH 74	M-OH -5.5	EVAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miami OH

31 games played

Straight up

29-2

94% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-294%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W L W W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U O O O O O U O O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsODU	W 87-72	-16.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 15	@AF	W 76-61	-10.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 20	vsMERC	W 76-71	-15.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	vsUAPB	W 111-84	-21.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 195
Nov 26	vsUNCG	W 82-71	-10.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 6	vsME	W 93-61	-17.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@UNCA	W 90-87	-6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	@EKU	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 16	@WRST	W 83-76	-1.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 20	@BALL	W 86-77	-7.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 30	@BGSU	W 93-83	+6.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 176
Jan 3	vsAKR	W 76-73	+4.5	W +7.5	177.5	U 149
Jan 6	vsWMU	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 9	@TOL	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsCMU	W 100-61	-15.5	W +23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsBUF	W 105-102	-10.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	@KENT	W 107-101	+1.5	W +7.5	167.5	O 208
Jan 27	vsMASS	W 86-84	-9.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 170
Jan 31	vsNIU	W 85-61	-16.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 3	@BUF	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@MRSH	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	162.5	O 164
Feb 13	vsOHIO	W 90-74	-7.5	W +8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	@MASS	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 163
Feb 20	vsBGSU	W 91-77	-8.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 24	@EMU	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 138
Feb 27	@WMU	W 69-67	-12.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsTOL	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	@OHIO	W 110-108	-3.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsMASS	L 83-87	-6.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 170
Mar 18	vsSMU	W 89-79	+6.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 168
Mar 20	vsTENN	L 56-78	+12.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

−1.5

W 76-61

+4.5

MERC

W 76-71

−10.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+5.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+0.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

−3.5

EKU

W 79-69

+4.5

WRST

W 83-76

+5.5

BALL

W 86-77

+1.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+16.5

AKR

W 76-73

+7.5

WMU

W 87-76

−3.5

TOL

W 87-73

+15.5

CMU

W 100-61

+23.5

BUF

W 105-102

−7.5

KENT

W 107-101

+7.5

MASS

W 86-84

−7.5

NIU

W 85-61

+7.5

BUF

W 73-71

−2.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+14.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+8.5

MASS

W 86-77

+5.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+5.5

EMU

W 74-64

+1.5

WMU

W 69-67

−10.5

TOL

W 74-72

−5.5

OHIO

W 110-108

−1.5

MASS

L 83-87

−10.5

SMU

W 89-79

+16.5

TENN

L 56-78

−9.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

+5.5

W 76-61

−6.5

MERC

W 76-71

+7.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+34.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+2.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

+24.5

EKU

W 79-69

−10.5

WRST

W 83-76

+9.5

BALL

W 86-77

+15.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+25.5

AKR

W 76-73

−28.5

WMU

W 87-76

+2.5

TOL

W 87-73

−6.5

CMU

W 100-61

+2.5

BUF

W 105-102

+44.5

KENT

W 107-101

+40.5

MASS

W 86-84

+5.5

NIU

W 85-61

−12.5

BUF

W 73-71

−21.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+1.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+0.5

MASS

W 86-77

−0.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+13.5

EMU

W 74-64

−13.5

WMU

W 69-67

−25.5

TOL

W 74-72

−16.5

OHIO

W 110-108

+58.5

MASS

L 83-87

+8.5

SMU

W 89-79

+5.5

TENN

L 56-78

−14.5

over 20under 11avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 28	@DRKE	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	@UNI	L 55-71	+11.5	L −4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 3	vsINST	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 6	@VAL	L 63-70	+8.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	vsILST	W 88-80	+10.5	W +18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	@SIU	L 60-86	+12.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 18	vsUIC	L 46-84	+8.5	L −29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	@MUR	L 75-88	+15.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 25	@BEL	L 64-98	+18.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsVAL	W 80-79	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 1	vsSIU	L 67-81	+9.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUNI	L 59-68	+13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+4.5

UNI

L 55-71

−4.5

INST

L 63-84

−19.5

VAL

L 63-70

+1.5

ILST

W 88-80

+18.5

SIU

L 60-86

−13.5

UIC

L 46-84

−29.5

MUR

L 75-88

+2.5

BEL

L 64-98

−15.5

VAL

W 80-79

+6.5

SIU

L 67-81

−4.5

UNI

L 59-68

+4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+16.5

UNI

L 55-71

−2.5

INST

L 63-84

+1.5

VAL

L 63-70

−3.5

ILST

W 88-80

+30.5

SIU

L 60-86

+3.5

UIC

L 46-84

−10.5

MUR

L 75-88

+9.5

BEL

L 64-98

+9.5

VAL

W 80-79

+21.5

SIU

L 67-81

+8.5

UNI

L 59-68

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miami OH has the better starters

Position by position: Miami OH 2, Evansville 1, even 2

Miami OHBetterEvansville

G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85

M-OHBig

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61

No call

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64

EVANSmall

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

Even

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76

M-OHBig

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

Miami OHBetterEvansville

M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9

M-OHSmall

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2

M-OHSmall

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

M-OHBig

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestM-OH betterEVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Miami OH

Guards

E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew

Forwards

R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

M-OH86.3 #10

EVAN65.8 #347

Points per possession

M-OH1.20 #15

EVAN0.97 #344

Pace (possessions)

M-OH72.1 #33

EVAN67.9 #232

Shooting

Effective FG%

M-OH58.6 #6

EVAN49.3 #280

3-point %

M-OH37.1 #25

EVAN32.3 #268

3-point attempt rate

M-OH45.6 #55

EVAN43.1 #109

Free throw rate

M-OH39.6 #64

EVAN29.8 #315

Possessions

Turnover rate

M-OH14.3 #36

EVAN19.1 #324

Offensive rebound rate

M-OH25.5 #332

EVAN22.0 #355

Assists per game

M-OH15.1 #80

EVAN12.6 #245

Defense

Points allowed

M-OH76.5 #229

EVAN78.3 #275

Points allowed per possession

M-OH1.06 #102

EVAN1.15 #329

Opponent effective FG%

M-OH51.2 #167

EVAN55.1 #332

Opponent 3-point %

M-OH33.1 #131

EVAN37.6 #351

Turnovers forced

M-OH17.4 #128

EVAN15.4 #258

Defensive rebound rate

M-OH71.3 #92

EVAN69.8 #170

Steals per game

M-OH7.0 #124

EVAN5.0 #335

Blocks per game

M-OH3.1 #202

EVAN3.3 #171

M-OH		EVAN
Scoring
86.3 #10	Points per game	65.8 #347
1.20 #15	Points per possession	0.97 #344
72.1 #33	Pace (possessions)	67.9 #232
Shooting
58.6 #6	Effective FG%	49.3 #280
37.1 #25	3-point %	32.3 #268
45.6 #55	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #109
39.6 #64	Free throw rate	29.8 #315
Possessions
14.3 #36	Turnover rate	19.1 #324
25.5 #332	Offensive rebound rate	22.0 #355
15.1 #80	Assists per game	12.6 #245
Defense
76.5 #229	Points allowed	78.3 #275
1.06 #102	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #329
51.2 #167	Opponent effective FG%	55.1 #332
33.1 #131	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #351
17.4 #128	Turnovers forced	15.4 #258
71.3 #92	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #170
7.0 #124	Steals per game	5.0 #335
3.1 #202	Blocks per game	3.3 #171

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee56–78
Wvs SMU89–79
Lvs UMass83–87
W@ Ohio110–108
Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
Lvs S Illinois67–81
Wvs Valparaiso80–79
L@ Belmont64–98
L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Evansville Purple Aces

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Miami OH

Evansville

Miami OH has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Miami OH

Evansville