Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Colorado State Rams: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 1:30 PM ETMoby Arena · at Colorado St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Loyola Chicago and Colorado St
LUC	This season	CSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSU 76–67 · win probability CSU 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

LUC 0, CSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUBig

Three-pointers

LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%; CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 47.7% and 49.1% of their shots

CSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0; CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9

CSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LUC 22%, CSU 67%. Transfers in: LUC 9, CSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LUC 19.8%, CSU 18.5%. Forced: LUC 12.9%, CSU 15.4%

CSUSmall

LUC offense vs CSU defense

Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings

CSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LUC 34.8, CSU 39.4. Allowed: LUC 33.6, CSU 34.2

CSUSmall

Home court

CSU at home. This season: CSU 0-0 at home, LUC 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: LUC plays 66.1 a game (309th fastest), CSU 64.4 (355th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

LUC has played the 112th-hardest schedule, CSU the 96th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

CSU offense vs LUC defense

Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LUC 30.5%, CSU 30.0%. Defensive: LUC 70.3%, CSU 70.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSU -9.3	—
Total	—	142.8	—
Projected score	—	LUC 66.7 · CSU 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSU -5.4	—
1H total	66.8	—
1H projected score	LUC 30.7 · CSU 36.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LUC WWWWW	13-20	39%	4-7	—
CSU WLLLL	18-15	55%	9-8	—

Venue/role: LUC away; CSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LUC UUUOU	15-18	45%	9-24
CSU OOUUU	17-16	52%	20-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LUC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
CSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Loyola Chicago

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs WICH	L74–95LO
Nov 22	vs SJSU	L51–63LU
Nov 29	@ MASS	W74–51WU

Colorado St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs NDSU	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs ARIZ	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs UTA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LUC 0–1 CSUCSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LUC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2025-26	CSU 80 @ LUC 67	LUC +3.5	CSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola Chicago

33 games played

Straight up

9-24

27% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2427%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 7	vsDAV	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	@GW	L 66-101	+14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 13	vsGMU	L 74-82	+11.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 16	@DAY	L 51-78	+16.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 20	@SBU	L 70-84	+10.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsDUQ	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 27	vsJOES	L 64-85	+1.5	L −19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 30	@VCU	L 75-89	+18.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	vsLAS	W 71-61	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 6	@DAV	L 64-84	+9.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 13	vsSLU	L 59-86	+17.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Feb 18	@FOR	L 59-62	+8.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	@JOES	L 61-75	+9.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsRICH	W 69-66	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 4	@SLU	L 65-79	+21.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsGW	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsRICH	W 75-67	+4.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 12	vsDAV	L 59-64	+5.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

DAV

L 64-79

−13.5

L 66-101

−20.5

GMU

L 74-82

+3.5

DAY

L 51-78

−10.5

SBU

L 70-84

−3.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−6.5

JOES

L 64-85

−19.5

VCU

L 75-89

+4.5

LAS

W 71-61

+7.5

DAV

L 64-84

−10.5

SLU

L 59-86

−9.5

FOR

L 59-62

+5.5

JOES

L 61-75

−4.5

RICH

W 69-66

+5.5

SLU

L 65-79

+7.5

W 68-62

+15.5

RICH

W 75-67

+12.5

DAV

L 59-64

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

DAV

L 64-79

+6.5

L 66-101

+12.5

GMU

L 74-82

+15.5

DAY

L 51-78

−12.5

SBU

L 70-84

+6.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−22.5

JOES

L 64-85

+5.5

VCU

L 75-89

+13.5

LAS

W 71-61

−8.5

DAV

L 64-84

+7.5

SLU

L 59-86

−10.5

FOR

L 59-62

−14.5

JOES

L 61-75

−6.5

RICH

W 69-66

−11.5

SLU

L 65-79

−11.5

W 68-62

−18.5

RICH

W 75-67

+0.5

DAV

L 59-64

−9.5

over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado St

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W L L W W W W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1555%

W W L W L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1652%

O O O U O U O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U U O O O O U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUIW	W 98-64	-10.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsOMA	W 97-74	-14.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 12	vsCP	W 93-79	-18.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 16	@LUC	W 80-67	-3.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsDEN	L 81-83	-18.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsVT	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsWICH	W 76-70	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsUSF	W 83-68	+2.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCOLO	W 91-86	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 177
Dec 9	vsDART	W 76-55	-20.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 131
Dec 20	@USU	L 58-100	+10.5	L −31.5	147.5	O 158
Dec 30	vsNEV	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@GCU	W 70-60	+6.5	W +16.5	143.5	U 130
Jan 6	vsUNM	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 9	vsUNLV	W 70-62	-6.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 132
Jan 13	@FRES	L 69-79	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 16	@BOIS	L 73-79	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsAF	W 81-52	-19.5	W +9.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 23	vsUSU	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 28	@SDSU	L 50-73	+9.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@WYO	L 57-68	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsSJSU	W 65-57	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@AF	W 91-74	-16.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsWYO	W 79-68	-3.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@UNLV	W 91-86	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 177
Feb 21	vsSDSU	W 83-74	+3.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsFRES	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	@SJSU	W 85-73	-4.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 4	@UNM	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsBOIS	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 145
Mar 11	vsFRES	W 67-63	-7.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsSDSU	L 62-71	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 18	vsJOES	L 64-69	-5.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UIW

W 98-64

+23.5

OMA

W 97-74

+8.5

W 93-79

−4.5

LUC

W 80-67

+9.5

DEN

L 81-83

−20.5

L 64-66

+2.5

WICH

W 76-70

+4.5

USF

W 83-68

+17.5

COLO

W 91-86

+3.5

DART

W 76-55

+0.5

USU

L 58-100

−31.5

NEV

L 62-75

−14.5

GCU

W 70-60

+16.5

UNM

L 70-80

−8.5

UNLV

W 70-62

+1.5

FRES

L 69-79

−13.5

BOIS

L 73-79

−0.5

W 81-52

+9.5

USU

L 61-65

+1.5

SDSU

L 50-73

−13.5

WYO

L 57-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 65-57

−7.5

W 91-74

+0.5

WYO

W 79-68

+7.5

UNLV

W 91-86

+7.5

SDSU

W 83-74

+12.5

FRES

W 74-70

−4.5

SJSU

W 85-73

+7.5

UNM

W 82-74

+16.5

BOIS

L 67-78

−12.5

FRES

W 67-63

−3.5

SDSU

L 62-71

−2.5

JOES

L 64-69

−10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UIW

W 98-64

+14.5

OMA

W 97-74

+17.5

W 93-79

+6.5

LUC

W 80-67

−4.5

DEN

L 81-83

+14.5

L 64-66

−23.5

WICH

W 76-70

+3.5

USF

W 83-68

−4.5

COLO

W 91-86

+27.5

DART

W 76-55

−22.5

USU

L 58-100

+10.5

NEV

L 62-75

−2.5

GCU

W 70-60

−13.5

UNM

L 70-80

+6.5

UNLV

W 70-62

−19.5

FRES

L 69-79

+8.5

BOIS

L 73-79

+11.5

W 81-52

−0.5

USU

L 61-65

−23.5

SDSU

L 50-73

−16.5

WYO

L 57-68

−17.5

SJSU

W 65-57

−16.5

W 91-74

+27.5

WYO

W 79-68

+6.5

UNLV

W 91-86

+29.5

SDSU

W 83-74

+17.5

FRES

W 74-70

−5.5

SJSU

W 85-73

+6.5

UNM

W 82-74

+5.5

BOIS

L 67-78

+1.5

FRES

W 67-63

−16.5

SDSU

L 62-71

−9.5

JOES

L 64-69

−11.5

over 17under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Colorado St has the better starters

Position by position: Loyola Chicago 1, Colorado St 4, even 0

Loyola ChicagoBetterColorado St

G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58

CSUSmall

G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79

G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91

LUCSmall

G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64

G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

CSUBig

G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67

F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

CSUSmall

F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87

F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

CSUSmall

F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90

Loyola ChicagoBetterColorado St

LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9

CSUSmall

CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2

LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2

Even

CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players

CSUBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players

Bench+0.6 · 5 players

LUCSmall

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLUC betterCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Loyola Chicago

Guards

D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR

Forwards

E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew

Centers

J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew

Colorado St

Guards

J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew

Forwards

K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew

Centers

J. ClarkNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LUC66.8 #337

CSU74.8 #169

Points per possession

LUC1.01 #313

CSU1.16 #44

Pace (possessions)

LUC66.1 #309

CSU64.4 #355

Shooting

Effective FG%

LUC49.8 #246

CSU57.5 #12

3-point %

LUC31.7 #296

CSU38.6 #9

3-point attempt rate

LUC47.7 #27

CSU49.1 #19

Free throw rate

LUC34.8 #188

CSU39.4 #69

Possessions

Turnover rate

LUC19.8 #343

CSU18.5 #298

Offensive rebound rate

LUC30.5 #179

CSU30.0 #198

Assists per game

LUC13.9 #151

CSU15.6 #62

Defense

Points allowed

LUC75.8 #212

CSU71.6 #95

Points allowed per possession

LUC1.14 #315

CSU1.11 #241

Opponent effective FG%

LUC52.0 #214

CSU52.9 #263

Opponent 3-point %

LUC36.8 #342

CSU34.2 #196

Turnovers forced

LUC12.9 #357

CSU15.4 #255

Defensive rebound rate

LUC70.3 #146

CSU70.8 #123

Steals per game

LUC4.1 #363

CSU5.2 #320

Blocks per game

LUC3.8 #101

CSU2.1 #338

LUC		CSU
Scoring
66.8 #337	Points per game	74.8 #169
1.01 #313	Points per possession	1.16 #44
66.1 #309	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #355
Shooting
49.8 #246	Effective FG%	57.5 #12
31.7 #296	3-point %	38.6 #9
47.7 #27	3-point attempt rate	49.1 #19
34.8 #188	Free throw rate	39.4 #69
Possessions
19.8 #343	Turnover rate	18.5 #298
30.5 #179	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #198
13.9 #151	Assists per game	15.6 #62
Defense
75.8 #212	Points allowed	71.6 #95
1.14 #315	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #241
52.0 #214	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #263
36.8 #342	Opponent 3-point %	34.2 #196
12.9 #357	Turnovers forced	15.4 #255
70.3 #146	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #123
4.1 #363	Steals per game	5.2 #320
3.8 #101	Blocks per game	2.1 #338

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Davidson59–64
Wvs Richmond75–67
Wvs G Washington68–62
L@ Saint Louis65–79
Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
Lvs San Diego St62–71
Wvs Fresno St67–63
Lvs Boise St67–78
W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Colorado State Rams

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola Chicago

Colorado St

Colorado St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Loyola Chicago

Colorado St