St. Thomas Tommies at Army Black Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ETChristl Arena · at Army

#288ARMYArmy

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Thomas and Army
STMN	This season	ARMY
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STMN 78–73 · win probability STMN 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

STMN 6, ARMY 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STMNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7; ARMY 49.3 and allows 55.1

STMNBig

Three-pointers

STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%; ARMY hits 32.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 46.3% and 53.3% of their shots

STMNBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: STMN 33.8, ARMY 26.8. Allowed: STMN 30.7, ARMY 39.6

STMNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STMN 14.4%, ARMY 17.2%. Forced: STMN 17.0%, ARMY 15.4%

STMNBig

STMN offense vs ARMY defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 304th, on the model’s ratings

ARMYSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STMN 35%, ARMY 65%. Transfers in: STMN 3, ARMY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ARMYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STMN 22.6%, ARMY 29.6%. Defensive: STMN 73.4%, ARMY 72.3%

ARMYSmall

Home court

ARMY at home. This season: ARMY 0-0 at home, STMN 0-0 away

STMNSmall

ARMY offense vs STMN defense

Offense 271st of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

STMN has played the 341st-hardest schedule, ARMY the 302nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: STMN plays 69.7 a game (137th fastest), ARMY 68.6 (200th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STMN -4.6	—
Total	—	150.6	—
Projected score	—	STMN 77.6 · ARMY 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -2.8	—
1H total	70.4	—
1H projected score	STMN 36.6 · ARMY 33.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	8-7	—
ARMY WLLLL	12-18	40%	4-10	—

Venue/role: STMN away; ARMY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10
ARMY OOOOU	17-13	57%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
ARMY	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ LIU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs SEMO	W84–72WO
Nov 21	@ MILW	L65–69LU

Army

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs MRST	L65–76WO
Nov 21	@ BING	W95–85LO
Nov 24	vs AF	L58–76LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STMN 1–0 ARMYSTMN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STMN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	ARMY 76 @ STMN 83	STMN -18.5	ARMY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Army

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L W W L W W W W L W W L L L L W L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O U U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U U U U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STMN	L 76-83	+18.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsDUKE	L 59-114	+33.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsHARV	L 52-75	+6.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 18	@COR	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 21	@MRST	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 141
Nov 25	vsETAM	L 67-84	+2.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 26	@FDU	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 154
Nov 29	vsMAN	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsGW	L 70-84	+19.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 12	@UMBC	W 63-60	+7.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 23	vsBING	W 95-85	-12.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 180
Dec 31	@LEH	W 85-78	+5.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsCOLG	L 69-76	+7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsL-MD	L 76-84	-4.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@BU	L 91-100	+7.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	@HC	L 75-82	+4.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 18	vsAMER	L 67-78	+4.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	@BUCK	W 87-84	+4.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@NAVY	L 56-84	+10.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsLEH	W 67-64	+1.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsHC	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 4	@COLG	L 55-69	+10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	vsLAF	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsBU	L 68-85	+2.5	L −14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	@AMER	L 63-75	+9.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@L-MD	W 87-77	+4.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsNAVY	L 63-81	+8.5	L −9.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 25	vsBUCK	L 73-75	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LAF	L 77-83	+3.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	@BUCK	L 55-65	+1.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+11.5

DUKE

L 59-114

−21.5

HARV

L 52-75

−16.5

COR

L 73-86

+4.5

MRST

L 65-76

+1.5

ETAM

L 67-84

−14.5

FDU

W 81-73

+12.5

MAN

W 81-78

+4.5

L 70-84

+5.5

UMBC

W 63-60

+10.5

BING

W 95-85

−2.5

LEH

W 85-78

+12.5

COLG

L 69-76

+0.5

L-MD

L 76-84

−12.5

L 91-100

−1.5

L 75-82

−2.5

AMER

L 67-78

−6.5

BUCK

W 87-84

+7.5

NAVY

L 56-84

−17.5

LEH

W 67-64

+4.5

W 69-68

−1.5

COLG

L 55-69

−3.5

LAF

L 60-63

−1.5

L 68-85

−14.5

AMER

L 63-75

−2.5

L-MD

W 87-77

+14.5

NAVY

L 63-81

−9.5

BUCK

L 73-75

−4.5

LAF

L 77-83

−2.5

BUCK

L 55-65

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+7.5

DUKE

L 59-114

+20.5

HARV

L 52-75

−19.5

COR

L 73-86

−5.5

MRST

L 65-76

+8.5

ETAM

L 67-84

+7.5

FDU

W 81-73

+1.5

MAN

W 81-78

+6.5

L 70-84

−2.5

UMBC

W 63-60

−23.5

BING

W 95-85

+39.5

LEH

W 85-78

+16.5

COLG

L 69-76

−2.5

L-MD

L 76-84

+13.5

L 91-100

+50.5

L 75-82

+14.5

AMER

L 67-78

−2.5

BUCK

W 87-84

+26.5

NAVY

L 56-84

−3.5

LEH

W 67-64

−16.5

W 69-68

−7.5

COLG

L 55-69

−26.5

LAF

L 60-63

−19.5

L 68-85

+12.5

AMER

L 63-75

−6.5

L-MD

W 87-77

+14.5

NAVY

L 63-81

+4.5

BUCK

L 73-75

+5.5

LAF

L 77-83

+15.5

BUCK

L 55-65

−24.5

over 17under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Army has the better starters

Position by position: St Thomas 0, Army 1, even 4

St ThomasBetterArmy

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

Even

G R. Curry13.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 57

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

Even

G K. McCarthy7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 13

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

Even

F J. Holloway10.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 37

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

ARMYSmall

F T. Laczkowski5.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 38

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Benner1.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

St ThomasBetterArmy

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

STMNSmall

ARMY defense304th of 366 · -7.8

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

Even

ARMY offense271st of 366 · -8.2

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

STMNSmall

Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

ARMYSmall

Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSTMN betterARMY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

Army

Guards

R. Curry34 minK. McCarthy24 minD. Watt5 minJ. Green3 minB. O'Keefe2 minJ. EllisNew

Forwards

J. Holloway29 minT. Laczkowski22 minD. Benner6 minN. Ikechi3 minD. Murans3 minH. RasmussenNew

Centers

P. HendersonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STMN80.9 #48

ARMY70.8 #268

Points per possession

STMN1.16 #45

ARMY1.03 #281

Pace (possessions)

STMN69.7 #137

ARMY68.6 #200

Shooting

Effective FG%

STMN58.9 #5

ARMY49.3 #279

3-point %

STMN36.0 #57

ARMY32.0 #278

3-point attempt rate

STMN46.3 #41

ARMY53.3 #3

Free throw rate

STMN33.8 #220

ARMY26.8 #352

Possessions

Turnover rate

STMN14.4 #37

ARMY17.2 #221

Offensive rebound rate

STMN22.6 #353

ARMY29.6 #219

Assists per game

STMN16.4 #37

ARMY14.5 #118

Defense

Points allowed

STMN73.1 #135

ARMY79.0 #298

Points allowed per possession

STMN1.05 #82

ARMY1.15 #321

Opponent effective FG%

STMN50.7 #139

ARMY55.1 #334

Opponent 3-point %

STMN31.7 #52

ARMY35.5 #285

Turnovers forced

STMN17.0 #152

ARMY15.4 #257

Defensive rebound rate

STMN73.4 #25

ARMY72.3 #54

Steals per game

STMN7.5 #87

ARMY5.4 #307

Blocks per game

STMN2.6 #296

ARMY1.6 #359

STMN		ARMY
Scoring
80.9 #48	Points per game	70.8 #268
1.16 #45	Points per possession	1.03 #281
69.7 #137	Pace (possessions)	68.6 #200
Shooting
58.9 #5	Effective FG%	49.3 #279
36.0 #57	3-point %	32.0 #278
46.3 #41	3-point attempt rate	53.3 #3
33.8 #220	Free throw rate	26.8 #352
Possessions
14.4 #37	Turnover rate	17.2 #221
22.6 #353	Offensive rebound rate	29.6 #219
16.4 #37	Assists per game	14.5 #118
Defense
73.1 #135	Points allowed	79.0 #298
1.05 #82	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #321
50.7 #139	Opponent effective FG%	55.1 #334
31.7 #52	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #285
17.0 #152	Turnovers forced	15.4 #257
73.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #54
7.5 #87	Steals per game	5.4 #307
2.6 #296	Blocks per game	1.6 #359

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Army

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Bucknell55–65
L@ Lafayette77–83
Lvs Bucknell73–75
Lvs Navy63–81
W@ Loyola MD87–77

A week or more of rest.

St. Thomas Tommies at Army Black Knights

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Army

Army has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Thomas

Army