St. Thomas Tommies at Long Island University Sharks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 12:00 AM ETBrooklyn Athletic Center · at Long Island

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Thomas and Long Island
STMN	This season	LIU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STMN 75–71 · win probability STMN 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

STMN 4, LIU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STMNBig

LIU offense vs STMN defense

Offense 339th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STMN 14.4%, LIU 19.0%. Forced: STMN 17.0%, LIU 18.7%

STMNSmall

STMN offense vs LIU defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STMN 35%, LIU 6%. Transfers in: STMN 3, LIU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LIUSmall

Home court

LIU at home. This season: LIU 0-0 at home, STMN 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

STMN has played the 341st-hardest schedule, LIU the 290th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: STMN 33.8, LIU 34.0. Allowed: STMN 30.7, LIU 34.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7; LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: STMN plays 69.7 a game (137th fastest), LIU 68.5 (206th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%; LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 46.3% and 29.3% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STMN 22.6%, LIU 33.9%. Defensive: STMN 73.4%, LIU 67.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STMN -4.4	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	STMN 75.2 · LIU 70.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -2.7	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	STMN 35.5 · LIU 32.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	8-7	—
LIU WLWWL	17-18	49%	9-6	—

Venue/role: STMN away; LIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10
LIU UOUOO	15-20	43%	24-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
LIU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs SEMO	W84–72WO
Nov 21	@ MILW	L65–69LU
Nov 25	@ UNCW	No recent meeting

Long Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs UNCW	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs FAIR	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs COR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Long Island

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

17-18

49% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

L W W W L L W L W W L L L W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1849%

L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L L L L L W W L L W L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U O O U U U O O U O O U O U U U U O U U U U U U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ND	L 67-89	+15.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 6	@IUIN	W 94-90	+4.5	W +8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 11	@AF	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsJMU	W 88-79	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 20	@FOR	L 53-69	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 22	@ILL	L 58-98	+34.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	@MOST	W 75-61	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsWIN	L 92-94	+5.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 186
Dec 6	@LEH	W 87-82	-1.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsLAS	W 70-60	-2.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 130
Dec 16	@MSST	L 83-87	+16.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	@FIU	L 79-86	+6.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 165
Dec 29	@UGA	L 74-89	+30.5	W +15.5	179.5	U 163
Jan 2	vsCCSU	W 84-78	-6.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 4	@CHST	W 74-55	-7.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsMERC	W 60-58	-8.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	vsSFPA	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 17	@FDU	W 66-59	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 19	@LEM	L 77-83	-1.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 23	@STO	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 29	vsLEM	W 83-61	-8.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 31	@CCSU	W 80-59	-2.5	W +18.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 5	vsNHVN	W 60-55	-9.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsSTO	W 61-54	-10.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 115
Feb 12	@WAG	W 67-57	-6.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 124
Feb 14	@NHVN	L 52-55	-6.5	L −9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 16	vsWAG	W 83-65	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 19	@SFPA	W 91-89	-9.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 21	@MERC	L 83-91	-3.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	vsCHST	W 73-56	-11.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsFDU	W 74-60	-9.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsCHST	W 79-75	-10.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 154
Mar 7	vsWAG	W 64-56	-6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 120
Mar 10	vsMERC	W 79-70	-4.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 20	vsARIZ	L 58-92	+30.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-89

−6.5

IUIN

W 94-90

+8.5

W 76-72

−1.5

JMU

W 88-79

+5.5

FOR

L 53-69

−11.5

ILL

L 58-98

−5.5

MOST

W 75-61

+18.5

WIN

L 92-94

+3.5

LEH

W 87-82

+3.5

LAS

W 70-60

+7.5

MSST

L 83-87

+12.5

FIU

L 79-86

−0.5

UGA

L 74-89

+15.5

CCSU

W 84-78

−0.5

CHST

W 74-55

+11.5

MERC

W 60-58

−6.5

SFPA

W 67-63

−11.5

FDU

W 66-59

−0.5

LEM

L 77-83

−7.5

STO

W 66-63

−2.5

LEM

W 83-61

+13.5

CCSU

W 80-59

+18.5

NHVN

W 60-55

−4.5

STO

W 61-54

−3.5

WAG

W 67-57

+3.5

NHVN

L 52-55

−9.5

WAG

W 83-65

+7.5

SFPA

W 91-89

−7.5

MERC

L 83-91

−11.5

CHST

W 73-56

+5.5

FDU

W 74-60

+4.5

CHST

W 79-75

−6.5

WAG

W 64-56

+1.5

MERC

W 79-70

+4.5

ARIZ

L 58-92

−3.5

covered 17didn’t cover 18avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-89

+20.5

IUIN

W 94-90

−1.5

W 76-72

+10.5

JMU

W 88-79

+19.5

FOR

L 53-69

−23.5

ILL

L 58-98

−4.5

MOST

W 75-61

−9.5

WIN

L 92-94

+32.5

LEH

W 87-82

+26.5

LAS

W 70-60

−13.5

MSST

L 83-87

+17.5

FIU

L 79-86

+3.5

UGA

L 74-89

−16.5

CCSU

W 84-78

+15.5

CHST

W 74-55

−22.5

MERC

W 60-58

−21.5

SFPA

W 67-63

−18.5

FDU

W 66-59

−18.5

LEM

L 77-83

+9.5

STO

W 66-63

−8.5

LEM

W 83-61

−3.5

CCSU

W 80-59

−3.5

NHVN

W 60-55

−20.5

STO

W 61-54

−17.5

WAG

W 67-57

−11.5

NHVN

L 52-55

−22.5

WAG

W 83-65

+9.5

SFPA

W 91-89

+31.5

MERC

L 83-91

+33.5

CHST

W 73-56

−12.5

FDU

W 74-60

−3.5

CHST

W 79-75

+16.5

WAG

W 64-56

−18.5

MERC

W 79-70

+14.5

ARIZ

L 58-92

+2.5

over 15under 20avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Thomas has the better starters

Position by position: St Thomas 1, Long Island 0, even 4

St ThomasBetterLong Island

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

STMNBig

G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 2

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

Even

G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 13

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

No call

G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

No call

G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

St ThomasBetterLong Island

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

STMNSmall

LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

STMNSmall

LIU offense339th of 366 · -11.1

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

STMNBig

Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

LIUBig

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.6 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestSTMN betterLIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

Long Island

Guards

J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew

Forwards

J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STMN80.9 #48

LIU73.6 #214

Points per possession

STMN1.16 #45

LIU1.08 #185

Pace (possessions)

STMN69.7 #137

LIU68.5 #206

Shooting

Effective FG%

STMN58.9 #5

LIU52.8 #112

3-point %

STMN36.0 #57

LIU35.8 #67

3-point attempt rate

STMN46.3 #41

LIU29.3 #354

Free throw rate

STMN33.8 #220

LIU34.0 #207

Possessions

Turnover rate

STMN14.4 #37

LIU19.0 #320

Offensive rebound rate

STMN22.6 #353

LIU33.9 #70

Assists per game

STMN16.4 #37

LIU13.7 #170

Defense

Points allowed

STMN73.1 #135

LIU71.7 #99

Points allowed per possession

STMN1.05 #82

LIU1.04 #80

Opponent effective FG%

STMN50.7 #139

LIU50.0 #102

Opponent 3-point %

STMN31.7 #52

LIU32.2 #72

Turnovers forced

STMN17.0 #152

LIU18.7 #61

Defensive rebound rate

STMN73.4 #25

LIU67.0 #299

Steals per game

STMN7.5 #87

LIU7.8 #56

Blocks per game

STMN2.6 #296

LIU5.4 #9

STMN		LIU
Scoring
80.9 #48	Points per game	73.6 #214
1.16 #45	Points per possession	1.08 #185
69.7 #137	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #206
Shooting
58.9 #5	Effective FG%	52.8 #112
36.0 #57	3-point %	35.8 #67
46.3 #41	3-point attempt rate	29.3 #354
33.8 #220	Free throw rate	34.0 #207
Possessions
14.4 #37	Turnover rate	19.0 #320
22.6 #353	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #70
16.4 #37	Assists per game	13.7 #170
Defense
73.1 #135	Points allowed	71.7 #99
1.05 #82	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #80
50.7 #139	Opponent effective FG%	50.0 #102
31.7 #52	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #72
17.0 #152	Turnovers forced	18.7 #61
73.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	67.0 #299
7.5 #87	Steals per game	7.8 #56
2.6 #296	Blocks per game	5.4 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Long Island

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona58–92
Wvs Mercyhurst79–70
Wvs Wagner64–56
Wvs Chicago St79–75
Wvs FDU74–60

A week or more of rest.

St. Thomas Tommies at Long Island University Sharks

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

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ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Long Island

St Thomas has the better starters

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St Thomas

Long Island